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Dammo Qwirky
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Joined: 29 Oct 2004
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 Posted: Thu Jul 06, 2006 6:49 pm Post subject: World Cup Final - France v Italy |
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World Cup Final Preview - Italy v France
Most pundits agree that Italy gave the most impressive performance in the semi-finals, and Sporting Index have them as slight favourites to edge it by 0 to 0.2 goals. However, they've not beaten Les Bleus since 1978. France knocked Italy out in the quarter-finals of 98 World Cup, on penalties. They then met again in the 2000 European Championship final, when a Golden Goal by Trezeguet sealed the match. It's fair to say these two teams have some histoire...
Following all the low-scoring matches we've seen recently, Sporting predict a total of just 2 goals will scored in 90 minutes. Such low goals means that the "Player Goal Minutes" are also low. Strikers Toni and Henry are both priced up at 12 to 15 minutes, a very low spread for players of this quality in good form.
Much will depend on the performance of the playmakers in both teams, namely Pirlo and Zidane. Their "Player Performance" markets (where they are rewarded for good passages of play, and penalised for poor play) are likely to attract interest. Points are awarded for scoring, assisting, shooting, forcing a corner or free kick and much more, but deducted for conceding free kicks or getting cards. When you consider how often the ball comes through these players, it's worth looking up the latest price for an exciting bet that lasts for the full match.
After some card-happy refereeing in the group matches, things seem to have calmed down now but Sporting Index predict there will still be six yellow cards. Only two were shown in the final four years ago, but the mighty Collina was in charge then. And finally, if you can't find the right bet but want to have something riding on the game, Sporting Index have some very creative markets that could fit the bill:
Vi-agro - awards five points for each different Italian player fouled by Patrick Vieira. Latest spread = 12 to 14 points.
The Berlin Wall - a market on how many times a defensive wall will be erected in the final. Latest spread = 4 to 5 times.
The Crying Game - how many different players of the losing squad will be seen crying after the final whistle? Sporting think that 4 to 5 players will be reaching for a tissue. |
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Tax Free
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Joined: 03 Jun 2006
Posts: 1105
Location: Wiltshire
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| Posted: Thu Jul 06, 2006 7:05 pm Post subject: |
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The Argentinian ref the one who sent off Rooney is doing the final and he is a right mug. The Italians played the semi in the spirit that football should be played and curbed their diving and play acting. However they only did this after the ref made it clear he wasnt going to stand for such actions and im afraid the Italians will realise they can get away with it against France and this final could be ruined by a weak FIFA appointment.
Still im hopeful the Italians realised on Tuesday that they could still win by not cheating and we will have a good game.
Im going for NO GOALSCORER - 5/1, FRANCE To Win On Penalties - 8/1 and coupling FRANCE 6/1 and ITALY 5/1 1-0.
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columbo
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Joined: 26 May 2005
Posts: 28
Location: Dublin, Ireland.
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| Posted: Thu Jul 06, 2006 7:26 pm Post subject: |
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I was a bit surprised to see Italy put in as favourites here. France have beaten Spain, Brazil and Portugal in 90 minutes, whereas Italy have beaten Ukraine, scraped home against Australia and failed to beat Germany in 90 minutes. I'm not saying Italy can't win but they are bad value to win in 90 minutes on that evidence.
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Dammo Qwirky
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josh88
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Joined: 03 Dec 2004
Posts: 468
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| Posted: Thu Jul 06, 2006 9:01 pm Post subject: |
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 Superb Dammo
Bartez is the weak link for France and has not been seriously tested yet and I think the Italians will exploit that in the game and go on to win it. |
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olivergt
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Joined: 05 Jul 2005
Posts: 163
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| Posted: Fri Jul 07, 2006 7:51 am Post subject: |
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Some stats from the World Cup Site
Italy
Shots on Goal 45 (Joint top with Germany)
Shots 78
Goals Against 1 (this was an own Goal)
France
Shots on Goal 30
Shots 64
Goals Against 2
I'm putting this information with the way that both Teams played in the Semis - Italy being the better of the two.
Barthez - seemed to lose the Plot at the end of the Semi against Portugal, definitely a weak link here.
Italy's defence look so strong at the moment.
I've taken ITALY (0,-0.5) @ 2.125
Oliver. |
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STUBBLE
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Joined: 15 Nov 2005
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| Posted: Fri Jul 07, 2006 5:25 pm Post subject: |
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I think people have latched onto the different quality of France and Italy's semi final performance, making Italy favourites.
Not really looked at this game properly yet, but am I right in thinking every team that has won after extra time/penalties, has gone on to lose in the next round:-
Quarter finals - Argentina & Ukraine
Semi finals - Portugal & Germany
Final - Italy ?
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swift tuttle
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| Posted: Fri Jul 07, 2006 6:00 pm Post subject: |
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Just read this and it seems to make sense to me:-
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Having scoured the myriad of World Cup markets, and there are a fair few, it is apparent that there is not much value on offer apart from one market; the Over/Unders. For the uninitiated this market is where you bet if there are going to be over or under a specified number of goals. In this case 2.5 is the mark so three goals in a game (e.g. 2-1) would mean the result is 'Over'.
The bookmakers have clearly priced up this market with a low scoring final in mind. True both France and Italy have been very solid at the back, but the Italians did look adventurous going forward against Germany and an early goal could turn the game on its head. Everyone is expecting a tight cagey final, so it pays to go against the crowd to find value. After all it is a game of football and anything could happen, 5/2 on over 2.5 goals is unheard of and must be snapped up.
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coopsy02
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Dammo Qwirky
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| Posted: Fri Jul 07, 2006 8:34 pm Post subject: |
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You would know that if u checked the free bets section of the site coopsy!
U can join Sporting Odds and get loads of other free bets on...
http://www.online-betting-guide.co.uk/free.php |
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coopsy02
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| Posted: Sat Jul 08, 2006 12:08 am Post subject: |
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im thinking, hoping, Italy in 90 mins and have to agree with the goals over, the game that sticks out for me between the 2, Euro 2000, Italy were seconds away from winning the final and wiltord grabbed a late equaliser to push it in to extra-time, were then robbed with a trezeguet winner, 2-1 France!!!
thats why i think the italians, if they score that is, wont sit back if it reaches 1-0, just incase lightnen strikes twice, was thinking of 2-0, french then maybe getting a late consolation to make it 2-1, Goals over as your predictions, or even 2-0 and the french pressing for a goal, Italy counter and its 3-0, again goals over, well here's hoping anyway 
also the goal line is 6/4 +2, imo there will be 2 goals min 
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Levytation
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| Posted: Sat Jul 08, 2006 1:46 pm Post subject: |
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Think I'm correct in saying that there hasn't been a WC Final where both teams have scored since 1986 (Argentina 3, W Germany 2).
1990 W Germany 1, Argentina 0
1994 Brazil 0, Italy 0 (Brazil win on pens)
1998 France 3, Brazil 0
2002 Brazil 3, Germany 0.
With Italy's defence as impermeable as ever you could argue that this trend could continue, however I can see the French scoring at least one goal providing they don't play as they did in the 2nd half against Portugal.
I've got a strong hunch that this could be 1-1 after 90 mins, so I'm going to dutch the following:
Italy ht / draw ft @ 14/1
Draw ht / draw ft @ 3/1
France ht / draw ft @ 14/1
1-1 after 90 mins @ 6/1
I'm also going to do the following 'Extra Time Specials':
Italy to win in extra time @ 9/1
Italy to win penalty shoot out @ 13/2
France to win in extra time @ 9/1
France to win penalty shoot out @ 13/2
My main stake will be on Draw ht / Draw ft...if it goes to plan and is a draw after 90 mins the profit from the 'extra time specials' will then start to kick in
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