As I'm sure most of us know roulette systems are, for example, martingale/parlay and strategies are biased wheel hunters/dealers signatures etc.
1. systems
Martingale always fails as a big run is just around the corner. As others have mentioned the house limit prevents a larger bet over time. Same for reverse Martingale.
Also, each spin of the wheel is an independent spin from the next so the odds do not vary.
HOWEVER, runs have to come to an end sometime. Having looked at 4.500 spins I noticed if you level bet after a run of 5, i.e bet on the 6th, 7th and 8th against the wheel you would make a small profit. The only problem with this, is there's no guarentee you'd make a profit doing the same thing over the next 4,500 spins!!! The profit was about 30 units so you'd have to sit at a table for hours on end, another draw back.
Brett Morton in his book 'playing to win' claims to earn a living from waiting for 6 spins then betting against the wheel in 1 unit, 1 unit 3 units bets and with a strict staking plan.
Could it be done? maybe, but the effort required is too great. A sports system would be easier to construct.
2. Strategies
IMO this is far easier. Biased wheels for me is the main one. You'll need to clock around 3-4 thousand spins on a wheel and hopefully some numbers will show more than others. Then just bet them! Problems come when the casino notices before you do and changes the wheel!!
Dealer signatures. Some dealers develop similiar spins and sometimes a pattern emerges. Again, this will take time to study but worth it. When dealers start talking to their friends they can become distracted and throw similiar distances between spins etc.
Visual tracking.
Don't really know much about this but I've read some people make a living from it, mainly in America. Basically, as the ball is slowing down you take the wheel speed and where the ball is and take a guess where the ball lands!!! Not as easy as it sounds.
That's about it, would like to hear from people who have tried anything from the above or their own system/strategies,
Apparently:- roulette was invented as by a monk along long time ago, this rumour also claims that this crazy monk killed himself because he could NOT figure the game out, with this in mind I can only say that there are no guaranteed strategies to BEAT the system. However, I still love to indulge as it is possible to track a dealer!
Joined: 13 Aug 2005 Posts: 7733 Location: Formbook
Posted: Tue Sep 16, 2008 7:00 pm Post subject:
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Dealer signatures. Some dealers develop similiar spins and sometimes a pattern emerges. Again, this will take time to study but worth it. When dealers start talking to their friends they can become distracted and throw similiar distances between spins etc.
I would say this is the only strategy there is where the punter can get an edge. but it will cost you in croup tips. Three tips and the croup will be getting a pat on the shoulder and taking a break. You have to get to be recognised by the croup and be in and out in a flash, playing neighbours and hope his is throwing accurately. _________________ There are only 2 things in life that NEED to be read. The Formbook, and the one for the flat as well
As a casino dealer I thought I'd throw in my $0.02 for anyone that's interested, with the caveat that I have only dealt in 1 casino in Brisbane, Australia, so I don't know if things are done differently in the UK. I get the feeling from some dealers I know who have travelled that British casinos are a bit more professional, and that Australia is pretty lax on a lot of procedures, so maybe my perspective wont help you, but I don't see how it can hurt either, so here goes :)
As part of dealer training you're told you should vary your spin if you notice that you're section spinning, but most of the dealers I work with don't really care. In fact the opposite is probably more likely to be true, since I and quite a few others I know practice trying to section spin and pick our own spins.
On betting, my main advise would be to bet a few nighbours (eg. 35/3/26/0/32/15/19 if 0 is your prediction for the next spin) of your prediction once you think you have a spin worked out. Even assuming ideal conditions of you finding a dealer either oblivious to their own consistent spin, or actively trying to section spin for either their own amusement or more tips, the diamonds and frets still make hitting an exact number VERY hard, even for great section spinners.
The other things I suggest are:
i) if tipping is allowed, do it; no suspicious overly big amounts that either look to supervisors like you might be colluding with the dealer, or that might make the dealer feel like you're trying to pressure/guilt them into helping you, but consistent small tips whenever you hit would be subtlely encouraging
ii) be friendly to your dealer. I'm no great section spinner, but I'm ok; and if some obnoxious/drunk jerk making my life at the table hard and he has a big bet on 1 number or on numbers in a close section, I can aim away from that section with a reasonably good success rate. My job is a service role, I am there to serve you, but there's no need to be an ass about it; and whereas on Blackjack I might just silently hope you bust, Roulette is a game where I may actually be able to hurt your odds. Karma can be a bitch, so play nice.
iii) Many dealers are dealers because they like games and/or gambling themselves. This is kind of an extension of (ii), but you can build some repall with some dealers by talking about the game, asking them to pick some numbers etc. Some casinos don't allow dealers to advise patrons and some dealers don't like to even if allowed to, but many will be happy to get a bit involved in the player's side of the game for a change and you may soon have the dealer - either consciously or subconsciously - trying to spin favourably for your number/section that they picked for your.
Like I said at the start, not sure what differences exist between the UK/Oz systems, but I hope the advise from my side of the table helps :)
Last edited by nescientprole on Wed Sep 17, 2008 12:52 am; edited 1 time in total
Joined: 06 Dec 2004 Posts: 1060 Location: 14.273483 miles from Norwich
Posted: Tue Sep 16, 2008 9:11 pm Post subject:
Very interesting post Nescientprole. Thanks for the insight from the croups side of the table. _________________ ..... Due to the economic climate..... the light at the end of the tunnel has been switched Off..!!!
Posted: Thu Oct 23, 2008 8:58 am Post subject: FIBO ROULETTE SYSTEM
Fibonacci Roulette System
Leonardo Pisan, better known as Fibonacci, was born in Pisa (now part of Italy) in 1170 A.D. Fibonacci was a member of the Bonacci family and traveled all around the Mediterranean as a boy with his father who held a diplomatic post. His keen interest in mathematics and his exposure to other cultures allowed Fibonacci to excel in solving a wide variety of mathematical problems. Fibonacci is probably best known for discovering the Fibonacci sequence, a sequence of numbers that readily exists in nature. Although, technically not a mathematical system per se, the sequence is often used in a losing or negative progression. The Fibonacci series is as follows:
The next number in the series is simply the sum of the previous two numbers. The starting number is 1. The second number calculated from 0 +1 (no number in front of the first 1) and is 1 again. The next number is 1 +1 or 2, then 1 +2 for 3, then 2 +3 = 5 and 5 +3 = 8, etc. The system works similarly to the Labouchere or cancellation system, only the player starts out with an empty line. If the first bet is won, then the sequence is over and the player has won. No numbers need to be written down. If the first bet is lost, then a line is started and a "1" is written down. The next number in the sequence represents the following wager size. If this bet is lost, then it is added to the end of the line. As each bet is lost, it is added to the end of the series. If a bet is won, the last number in the series is crossed out. An example here will help clarify things:
1.) Bet 1 unit and lose: 1 -1 units
2.) Bet 1 unit and lose: 1-1 -2 units
3.) Bet 2 units and lose: 1-1-2 -4 units
4.) Bet 3 units and win: 1-x-x -1 units
5.) Bet 1 unit and lose: 1-1 -2 units
6.) Bet 2 units and lose: 1-1-2 -4 units
7.) Bet 3 units and lose: 1-1-2-3 -7 units
8.) Bet 5 units and win: 1-1-x-x -2 units
9.) Bet 2 units and lose: 1-1-2 -4 units
10.) Bet 3 units and win: 1-x-x -1 units
11.) Bet 1 unit and lose: 1-1 -2 units
12.) Bet 2 units and win: x-x +0 units
13.) Bet 1 unit and win: stop +1 unit
-Series has been won-
Our player starts with a one unit loss, so a "1" is recorded to start the line. Another "1" is added after the second wager of one unit loses. The third stake requires a two-unit wager and loses, so a "2" is added. The fourth bet of three units finally wins and the "1-2" can be cancelled from the line. Because each wager adds up to the previous two bets, the last two numbers on the line can be crossed out when a bet wins. The next three bets lose, escalating our eighth stake up to five units. Our player experiences a win at this level, allowing him to cancel out the "2-3" at the end of the line. The ninth bet of two units loses, so the line grows to "1-1-2." A win, loss and win on the tenth, eleventh and twelve wagers finally wipe out the betting line. The player needs and gets a win at this point to go up a net profit of one unit and win the sequence.
With only five wins and eight losses, this particular sequence of wins and losses is tough, but our player is able to pull it out. On the eighth wager, the stake reaches a high of five units. If that bet had lost, our player would be twelve units in the hole. At a $5 unit size, that equates to a $60 deficit. The next wager from here would be eight units and another loss would put him back 20 units total. If you elect to use the Fibonacci, I would highly recommend that you limit your top bet to five units. If you lose your wager at this level, then abandon the series. Things get ugly too quickly from here. Stop and regroup. Let's take the Fibonacci up to twelve straight losses to see how quickly the wagers can mount:
1.) Bet 1 unit and lose: 1 -1 units
2.) Bet 1 unit and lose: 1-1 -2 units
3.) Bet 2 units and lose: 1-1-2 -4 units
4.) Bet 3 units and lose: 1-1-2-3 -7 units
5.) Bet 5 units and lose: 1-1-2-3-5 -12 units
6.) Bet 8 units and lose: 1-1-2-3-5-8 -20 units
7.) Bet 13 units and lose: 1-1-2-3-5-8-13 -33 units
8.) Bet 21 units and lose: 1-1-2-3-5-8-13-21 -54 units
9.) Bet 34 units and lose: 1-1-2-3-5-8-13-21-34 -88 units
10.) Bet 55 units and lose: 1-1-2-3-5-8-13-21-34-55 -143 units
11.) Bet 89 units and lose: 1-1-2-3-5-8-13-21-34-55-89 -232 units
12.) Bet 144 units and lose: 1-1-2-3-5-8-13-21-34-55-89-144 -376 units
This last example demonstrates how the bets can mount in a losing string of twelve losses. The chances of losing twelve straight on a double zero roulette wheel are (20/38)^12 = 0.0004518, or about 1 shot in 2213. The purpose here was to show a range of cumulative losses and let the system player decide where to draw the line. Some authors show the Fibonacci sequence and omit the first "1" in the series. That's fine, but the shortened version is a little more aggressive than the "full" Fibonacci. You will lose a bit more money on average with this abbreviated variation. Overall, the Fibonacci sequence does not fare to badly. This system can be fun and not too damaging if you limit your top bet to five units.
My views on roulette are probably well known by now. If you want to have a bit of fun then play away but its not a serious earner unless its a crooked game and you on the right side of that crookedness.
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"even money" boxes
The evens boxes may pay evens but with 0 and 00 the house has an edge of 3 to 6%. It is a statistical certainty that over time you'll lose as this house edge cannot be ovecome. Couple this certainty with an aggressive staking plan and your heading for even more trouble.
You may have a lucky run and be able to walk away and never ever return, but thats not normal practice.
Have your fun guys but never call this a Golden Egg.
it's amazing how much work has gone into strategies for this game, so much mathematical work all overlooking the simple fact that long term you can't beat the mathematical laws of probability in this game!
It doesn't matter if you wait for 5, add 2 each go, spin round 3 times or make a cup of tea between each spin.
Casino games aren't made to be won and even the ones that contain an element of skill, ie blackjack still have a house edge if you play the perfect game.
Therefore there really are better things you could be using your mathematical skills for!
That´s right you are deadly right but if you know some skills you can reduce the house edge.
First play EUROPEAN ROULETTE with only One ZERO then do some maths and a bit skill you can be ahead.
Believe me there Professionnal roulette players who could make a living on it, and the casinos can do nothing about it.
One thing you should bear in mind the casinos speculate on TIME when it comes to roulette the longer you play the house edge can catch up with you but if you have a discipline and knowledge you can make a profit what iam doing since five years.The casinos also speculate on people ignorance and time and if a few professional players make aliving on roulette they don´t mind.
one thing i must tell you which myabe will (schock) you the chances to win in roulette are HIGHER than in horse racing, and this mathematically proven.
i will post more info on systems for those who are interested.
Joined: 12 May 2008 Posts: 1871 Location: Donegal, Ireland
Posted: Thu Oct 23, 2008 7:43 pm Post subject:
I'll post this link in the hope that no one tries to make any kind of living out of roulette as you won't be able to do it unless you play huge stakes and get very lucky but that would be some risk to take.
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