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Betfairalfie
At Stud
Joined: 01 Mar 2005
Posts: 4666
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 Posted: Tue Jan 15, 2008 10:57 am Post subject: |
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I assume that Bet365 Casino operate on a 3% - 6% profit margin on a un-biased wheel.
Any staking system will lose money long-term on this game of chance.
Good luck if your (currently) getting away from the table with a profit, as statsistics prove it won't last long-term. |
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manualengine
2yo
Joined: 11 Jan 2008
Posts: 5
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| Posted: Tue Jan 15, 2008 9:00 pm Post subject: |
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| Yeah, I know luck has been on my side so far and a bad run could be just round the corner but I reckon ifI keep my dicipline I wont lose much. If I start losing frequently I'll give it a rest for a while and try again later |
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jwoody
Stallion
 Read My Blog!
Joined: 13 Dec 2004
Posts: 5758
Location: Fortress Selhurst, Crystal Palace
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| Posted: Mon Apr 07, 2008 3:26 pm Post subject: |
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why dont people like this system? surly this is the highest odds in ur favour casino game  i cant think of any others that give u a 98.88% chance of winning |
Poker is offered by the majority of casinos nowadays and certainly allows for a much bigger edge than roulette, craps, blackjack etc... Expert poker players can consistantly win over the long term, whereas, any system employed in roulette will at best show a small loss in the long term. Just because your short term results show a profit, the maths of the situation imply a long term loss, no casino would offer a game against the house which punters could gain an egde over them.
Specifically, the Martingale system has one inherent flaw. There is'nt an infintite amount of money available to any gambler and therefore a giant hole in the system presents itself whereby eventually there won't be sufficient money to employ the system; the smaller your bankroll in relation to the bet you make the bigger the chance of this happening.
If you're having 10 bets of this nature per day, in a month that's roughly 300, so if you have a likelyhood of 98.88% of getting a red on your 7th attempt, does'nt this mean you will have to attempt to double up more than 7 times roughly 3 times a month? Not only that, once you reach the maximum bet that the house allows, you have no means of employing the system to recoup, so there are scalability issues also.
I have'nt really thought about the maths behind this so please someone correct me if I'm wrong; the very fact that casinos welcome the martingale system (up to the house limits) sends alarms bells ringing in my head.
What do other members think about this specific system of trying to win 10 £2.50 bets per day using the martingale and roulette?
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Gerry
2yo
Joined: 14 Oct 2007
Posts: 1
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| Posted: Wed Apr 09, 2008 4:33 am Post subject: |
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I have been looking for an online casino - one which will take gold currencies preferably.
All of the ones I have tested so far have fallen short of a "square deal", given the house must win eventually but not necessarily with each player. So as in everything there are winners and losers.
The systems I tried fell short mostly because they developed a "neural" component as I progressed. In other words they started to learn my play patterns.
I always try the play free version first. I start by playing random patterns then after 20 mins or so switch to the Martingale system. Boy you should see the change in number sequences change then - it's like turning a switch!
My opinion then is - be very very careful where you bet on line.
Most of the regular online casinos seem OK but I have had one of these do
quite a blatant change too.
GB |
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rounder
Group 1 Class
Joined: 09 Mar 2007
Posts: 305
Location: Scotland
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| Posted: Wed Apr 09, 2008 2:32 pm Post subject: |
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Woody
| Quote: |
| What do other members think about this specific system of trying to win 10 £2.50 bets per day using the martingale and roulette? |
Laddiespoker
| Quote: |
| i cant think of any others that give u a 98.88% chance of winning |
Never stops amazing me how statistics can be pushed and pulled to make things look attractive or weak. The martingale system is something I have used (without knowing it had a name and was an actual system). I have major problems with it. You say that you will double your bet 7 times max on a double up roll. Every single person who has gambled a casino chip must know that each roll is separate and had has no bearing from the previous or on the following.
This being said you are betting only on probability with horrible odds. If, when you bet black, the red count goes to 6 your next bet will be £160 on a less than even money chance to win £2.50. That is under a crazy 1/64. But if you lose, you have lost £2.50+£5+£10+£20+£40+£80+£160 = £317.50. That is 13 days work on the system. So 1 loss every 13 days and you make pennies. 2 losses every 13 days and you are down a huge amount.
This type of thing is very dangerous and defiantly not for me. It may be able to be seen as a 98.88% system but to me seems a very dodgy 98.88%. I gotta be honest with you mate, there are a lot better ways to make a lot more money with a lot less risk.
(apologies if my math is bad but I tink its right) |
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graybert
Group 3 Class
Joined: 16 Feb 2007
Posts: 64
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| Posted: Sun Apr 27, 2008 7:15 pm Post subject: |
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i have tried the red black system and it worked for a while, but as with all casino games there is no way to win constantly. if there was, the casino's would close. basically never ever put your trust in a program ever.
people and animals are unpredictable and can sometimes be influenced but a machine or program will do what it wants when it wants.
if i did use the system to try and make money i would do it at a casino on a real table and not on a betting site where the outcome is not random.
and that goes for every other so called random game on these gambling sites.
i'd rather play poker but even that can't be trusted as the house takes a %rake on each betting round and creates action flops to make themselfs a nice profit at no risk to them.
i just dont trust computers or programs when it comes to gambling.
i feel better now i've got that off my chest.
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If it wasn't for bad luck i'd have no luck at all |
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