Under 1.5 Goals

foodles · Handicapper Joined: 03 Dec 2007 Posts: 14

Hi

First post here. I've been trading on Betfair for a few months. Started with £30 and traded my way to £1000 over3 months before a few stutters knocked my confidence. Had a few slices of luck to get there though. So now looking for a system that is a bit more stable.

One system I'm looking at, which I'm sure is known to many people on here, is backing under 1.5 goals and then laying after a goal has been scored. Just done it on the Man City match, backed at 1.56 and laid at 1.19.

Interested in trialling it for every game in Prem, but was wondering if anyone knew which league averages most goals per game?

Thanks....

generalLee · 2yo Joined: 25 Jan 2007 Posts: 2

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foodles · Handicapper Joined: 03 Dec 2007 Posts: 14

Thanks very much.

A friend did it on all prem matches today and has won on all apart from Pompey - Spurs and its only half time. Win

Has anyone looked at this system already? Any thoughts?

passport01 · 2yo Joined: 05 May 2007 Posts: 4

If you backed under 1.5 goals at odds of 1.57, surely when the goal was scored the Lay odds went up rather than down.

How did you make a profit????

betking · Posted: Sun Dec 16, 2007 12:20 am Post subject:

I second what passport said.

When a goal is scored the odds to Lay in under 1.5 will lengthen, not shorten, thus making your method impossible Confused

Dammo Qwirky · Stallion Joined: 29 Oct 2004 Posts: 5896

obv its a typo and he means means backing over 1.5goals.
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betking · Posted: Sun Dec 16, 2007 1:18 am Post subject:

I thought of that, but over 1.5 goals after a goal has been scored would be around 1.05, not 1.19, so its still not feasable. Confused

Dammo Qwirky · Stallion Joined: 29 Oct 2004 Posts: 5896

unlikely it would be 1.05 when 1 goal to be scored is typically about 1.1-1.12 at start of a match.
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foodles · Handicapper Joined: 03 Dec 2007 Posts: 14

Sorry.....

I backed OVER 1.5 goals at c. 1.5. After one goal has been scored, the price of over 1.5 goals comes into about 1.1, depending on when the first goal is scored. Backed at 1.5, laid at 1.1 for an all green card.

thetitan · At Stud Joined: 25 Apr 2007 Posts: 2964

sounds a fair idea foodles, but how do you choose your games? what is your exit point? (ie what do you do if there are no goals by HT?)
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foodles · Handicapper Joined: 03 Dec 2007 Posts: 14

I'm still looking at it. Seems if a goal is scores first half you can Lay for either a profit on just over 1.5 goals or an all green card. As the returns aren't great (typically about 20-30% of stake) I'd be inclined to get out of there and accept a break even at HT or just after.

I've not developed any sort of system for picking matches. Any set of fixtures where you feel there is a slim chance of 0-0's I guess.

As with several systems I've trialled, 0-0's are the enemy.

fastal72 · Group 1 Class Joined: 09 Jan 2007 Posts: 253

foodles - don't want to confuse the issue or tread on generalLees toes but according to my records the Scottish 3rd division is leading the way with an average of 3.36 goals per game then comes Norway Divsion 1, Norway Tippeligaen then the Dutch Ereedivision.

Hope this helps rather than hinders, all the best.