Under 1.5 Goals

[Emired]

I know the system says not to use cup matches, but I was looking to have a little paper trade this weekend to see how it worked.

Unfortunately, due to the nature of this week's fa cup ties, the only thing i did was Lay liverpool for real @ 1.03! (havant are my local side, you never know! )

I had peterborough v west brom as a no-go because the away side are the favourites.

Arsenal v Newcastle, newcastle's Lay odds were 12.5. I did however paper-back 2-1 and 2-0 Arsenal, the most common results at emirates this season, and the result of one of the last 2 games here against newcastle.

Coventry v Millwall - away odds @ 8 were too high. Same with Portsmouth v Plymouth @ 8, Man U v Spurs @ 8.6.

Wigan v Chelsea the away side are favouries, aston villa v blackburn the away sides form is very good, sheffied united v man city the away side are favourites and watford v wolved the home form is very poor.

Nothing doing this weekend then apart from 2-0 or 2-1 arsenal correct score.

[adlad]

I'm a liverpool fan myself (theyre also my local side ) and at odds of 1.03/1.04 and the way we're playing atm I would Lay us too!

[Doommeister]

Lads, Liverpool will crush Havant - They have a point to prove right now & need to show all & sundry they still have what it takes. They will take the match VERY seriously & I'm backing Over 5 goals for that one.

Here's some VERY valuable information for you all: I've started to hunt down those teams that have played 10+ Home / Away matches with 80 percent Win/Draw ratio FOR or AGAINST them. I propose, that using the current system we filter any that score less than 161.00 by matching up a + figure with a - figure or vice-versa. (A Home Lay) BUT both must be 80.00 +
This will ultimately lead to fewer Lays but MUCH SAFER one's so more profit!!
(Well, that's the theory...)

Here's the French league for starters.

Legend:
+ figure = Win/Draw Positive
- Figure = Lose/Draw Negative

LYON = 90 % HOME
BORDEAUX = 80 H + 81 AWAY
NANCY = 100 H + (81) A
NICE = 100 H + (80) A
CAAN = 81 H + (80) A
VALENCIENNES = 100 H + (90) A
MONACO = 80 H
LORIENT = 81 H + (90) A
MARSEILLE = 80 H + (81) A
ST ETIENNE = 90 H + (90) A
TOULOUSE = 81 H
PARIS SG = (90) H + 80 A (YEP, STRANGE HUH!!)
AUXERRE = (90) A
LILLE = 80 H + (80) A
LENS = 80 H + (80) A
SOCHAUX = (90) H
METZ = (100) H + (90) A

Interesting to not that Metz have lost or drawn 95 percent from 20 games, whilst a fair few teams have a cracking unbeaten run at Home but perform less than satisfactory Away from Home...

The plan is to reach 8 out every 10 Lays at odds of 9.00 & lower. If we succeed in doing this by placing a 81 + an (80), or 80 + (81) or vice-versa (Yes, I'll be doing Home Lays with this!!) I'm hoping that extra 1 percent will make the difference & turn this into 9 out of 10. (But perhaps Lay at higher odds with lower stakes, similar to Maria's Ratchet System??)

I'll do all Betfair leagues including our own (Why isn't Germany up as a playable market??) & either post them up on here, or preferably & for easier access onto an Microsoft S/Sheet for instant pure pleasure!!

Personally I think we would have to be VERY unlucky for a team that's lost only 2 Home to a team that's won only 2 Away (out of 10) & looking forward to see if this succeeds!! if it doesn't, then Laying the Football market long-term may well be a No-Show...

[JMox99]

Mark,

Going back to your idea re. backing the win/draw combo;

[Doommeister]

I like your thinking there Young / Old man (Delete where applicable!!). I'm hoping though that if we start hitting 90 percent figures again that I can safetly place the Lay, Win & Draw all together on the same match. a week ago we had 11/11 which returned me £33.00 on return stakes. That figure would have been £55.00+ if I'd gone for the Win & Draw... But good input nevertheless!!

[Doommeister]

Hello Chaps,

Slightly late with this, my Apa-logies!! (BlackAdder)

Here are tonights qualifying 'sure thing' win matches:

All Away Lays:


Caan V Auxerre = 171 (85.5 percent Win/Draw)
Lyon v Lorient = 180 (90 %)
Nancy v Marseille = 181 (90.5 %)

Groningen v NEC = 180 (90 %)
PSV v Sparta = 178 (89 %)


By rights this should finish at least 4/5 - Although I cannot see why all 5 shoudn't come in.

Best of Luck!!

[Doommeister]

Some cracking out-right wins there too:

BUT - Lay odds were erratic. PSV V Sparta the Away Odds were 22.00 (So I backed & Drew for set liabilty) but the Groningen V NEC game (5-1!!) Away odds ONLY 3.2!! (I backed that for 10.00) & this was this slightly safer game.
The rest were between 4.3 & 9.6
Obviously, Betfair can't go through every single stat, so I think we'll see some real bargain prices like the above from time to time. May even be a greater idea to lump most of your daily cash liability on these??

To recamp % ratio for qualified games= 100.00 5/5
Total P/L = £21.00

Swings & roundabouts this game - I also won £38.00 on the GG's today (17/1 Lays with another system of mine!!) BUT lost £40.00 on the Everton Chelsea game backing Over 1.5 goals!! (In hindsight, Under 3.5 goals would have been safer... Is anyone an U/O certain goals King, out there??)

[Doommeister]

Here we go again Chaps,

These matches DO NOT qualify for the original system but DO for the 81:80 system -

Haarlem V Emmen = 81 + 80 = 161 (80.5 percent) @ 3.4
Brest V Clermont = 80 + 88 = 168 (84 %) @ 3.25

Now I expect the above to go either way, so do not recommend laying them. If you do, just make sure it's small stakes...

These qualify for both systems:

Braga V Belenenses = 90 + 99 = 189 (94.5 %) @ 5.8
Zwolle V Omniworld = 99 + 99 = 198 (99 %) @ 9.00

My NAP from these two is the Braga game - Lower odds but still a high chance of coming in.

I expect the bottom 2 to win...

[Doommeister]

Interesting - On The Haarlem game the Home team lost (The Away had won it's previous Away game) The two selections that qualified for (The original just 3 pts from last 2 Home games & the 4 pt cushion, not the newer 2nd version) the two systems both came in. Small bets were placed on both so I'm £6.00 up on them both. Not great I know but hopefully there should be loads today.
If somebody can do the original system, I'll match those one's up & see if there 'safer' under the 81:80 system. Hopefully onto something with this

7/7, 100 % ratio - Good stuff so far...

[Doommeister]

Don't know if anyone's still with me on this!!
But - here are today's game's within 11.00

GROSSETO V MODENA = 90+80 = 170 (85 %) = 6 PTS @ 4.8
MESSINA V TRIESTINA = 85 + 80 = 165 (82.5 %) = 9 PTS @ 4.3
ABERDEEN V HEARTS = 81 + 81 = 162 (81 %) = 9 PTS @ 4.2
ST JOHNSTONE V S ALBION = 99 + 99 = 198 (99 %) = 7 PTS @ 9.2
MARSEILLE V CAAN = 80 + 80 = 160 (80 %) = 4 PTS @ 6.2

I'm banking on a 100 percent record here today, with my NAP being the Grosseto V Modena match @ 4.8 odds

Best of Luck!!

[rogsmith]

im with you mate keep em coming

[JMox99]

Still following, although I'm sticking with the 'old' system at the moment, but betting on the home win/draw combo rather than the Lay.

Going for the following tonight;

Auxerre v Nancy
Lens v Strasbourg
Roma v Palermo (home win only, odds 1.43 on Betfair)