Under 1.5 Goals

JMox99 · Handicapper Joined: 30 Nov 2007 Posts: 19

Also, another possible, 9pm kick-off

Sevilla v Osasuna (Lay 7.0, home win 1.6)

Depending on other results today might go for the home win

Doommeister · Group 2 Class Joined: 06 Dec 2007 Posts: 154

Well that's it with me & football - 3/3 AGAINST ME losing me over £27.00 - I can't believe it!!
What more can you do?? I would have thought a 90 percent winning record against a 85 percent losing would be very safe, but seriously 3/3??

Crying or Very sad

Gonna stick to the GG's - I've never had a 3/3 there...

Man, you win £30.00 one day (oh, & have to pay commission) & lose £30.00 the next (No refund though!!) Makes you wonder why you bother...

JMox99 · Handicapper Joined: 30 Nov 2007 Posts: 19

Commiserations, that's just damn bad luck.

Ditch the 180% and go back to the 4+ points difference system, betting on the home win/draw seems to be working and the liability's not as high as the Lay.

adlad · Group 3 Class Joined: 06 Nov 2007 Posts: 84

Doom - I've found that generally, lower league teams are more unpredictable, even if its only the second division (serie b, segunda etc.) Maybe try sticking to the top leagues only and see if the results improve.

EDIT: also, use stats from at least two different sources, maybe getting an average from both and make sure you are getting value from your bets! www.valuechecker.co.uk is ok for a second opinion, but compare the probability of winning with the best odds available.

for e.g.

Roma - 89% win/draw ratio in last 9 home games.
and their opponents:
Palermo - 44% win/draw ratio in last 9 away games
so 56% chance to lose.

average probability of roma winning OR palermo losing (i know it sounds like it makes no sense, but it gives us a more reliable/cautious figure) = (0.89 + 0.56)/2 = 72.5%

I managed to get Roma for 1.44 earlier. A simple way to work out if this is value, is to put the numbers into the Kelly's Criterion calculator (http://www.online-betting-guide.co.uk/school/staking.php). This will show you whether the bet is value by comparing the odds with the winning %. It also gives you a percentage of your bank to stake on the outcome, should you choose to follow the staking system.

NB. valuechecker shows negative value on roma and it is up to you whether you choose to let this affect your final choice:) personally, I've gone for the roma win today at 1.44.

adlad · Group 3 Class Joined: 06 Nov 2007 Posts: 84

I've just realised that my calculations are the same as Doom's actually, but I think you should consider the value factor too.

Doommeister · Group 2 Class Joined: 06 Dec 2007 Posts: 154

I was toying with the idea of Laying £4.00, but betting £1.00 on 0-1, 0-2 & 1-2. Wish I'd put them on as the 1-2 & 0-2 alone would have made a nice profit for me with just a £1.00 stake.
Of course, when that does happen, I'll just end up with £3.00 profit!! (But hey, still profit - In fact, I'll be rooting for those scorelines!!) But the way I see it is you've got to be even unluckier to lose 2-3 + in all 3 circumstances. Anybody know how much I would have made if I'd backed the scorelines that came in??
How did you guys do?? probably half the liabilty so just half as bad?? (I know Roma came in...)

Mark Confused

JMox99 · Handicapper Joined: 30 Nov 2007 Posts: 19

After seeing your bad luck, I bottled the french games and went for the 'safe' Roma and Sevilla wins, with a small covering bet on the draw to minimise the loss in the event of an away win.

Both of the French games came in though, and Sevilla scored a last minute penalty to beat Osasuna.

Doommeister · Group 2 Class Joined: 06 Dec 2007 Posts: 154

My P/L reads

Horse Racing - £169.00
Football - (9.80)

Been racking my brains trying to think of a 'safe' bet on the football market. Thought about Laying the Draw & backing 0-0 & 1-1 as this results in a £1.00 - £2.00 profit (Backing £1.00 on the 0-0 & £2.00 on the 1-1 & Laying the Draw @ £3.16, resulting in a 'free bet')
Only problem is, as soon as a 2-2 comes in you lose 10.00+, so chances of this working long term is ominous.
Another idea is to Lay the draw @ HT with odds of 3.0 or lower. Apparently this has a ratio of 2/3 in your favour so this would result in profit. Does anyone else do this & to what overall result??

Any other ideas??
Confused

fab54 · Handicapper Joined: 25 Feb 2008 Posts: 22

guys???

I just spent the last 3 hours reading the 19 pages and now that I finally get to the end I realise that the last message was posted end of january Shocked

Is this system dead? Crying or Very sad

I'm sure we can improve it, maybe by selecting carefully the leagues we bet on...

Doommeister · Group 2 Class Joined: 06 Dec 2007 Posts: 154

LOL - Sorry about that!!

The idea works across the board, but is indeed better in the Higher Class leagues - eg, PL, SPL, Serie A, Dutch Premier, etc, so I may well go back to this at some point. Also, nothing over 7.00 odds went against us so maybe we'll have to have that as the SP going up to 20.00?? Risky & nerve-racking but probably more profitable long term...

bospheros · Group 3 Class Joined: 16 Mar 2008 Posts: 79

ok fab, maybe you can save me the 3 hours and summarise it for me.

seems like theres about 3 or more systems discussed here.

Doommeister · Group 2 Class Joined: 06 Dec 2007 Posts: 154

Just read the first few pages - That's what I've gone back to doing...

	Working together to beat the Bookies!