??% per Day / Week ??

[lazystakes]

I've adopted this system / strategy for sometime now after seeing it posted on the OLBG Forum and seem to be making a progression quite simply at low stakes

after fiddling around with figures here's some basics
(can easily be calculated on spreadsheet)

over 1 year (approx)starting with $100

3% * 7days = $122.98 / 1 week

so you want 23% a week

half a year is 26 weeks so .....

23% * 26 weeks = $21'753.68

continue till the end of the year would see over 4 million pounds ,unlikely you'll get there as the bookies will stop you in your tracks for max bets

However lower your weekly target to say 2% a day and it now looks more easier to reach,

2% * 7days = $114.86 / 1 week

so target 15% a week..

over half a year 26 weeks

15% * 26weeks = $3'785.67

to the end of the year...

15% * 52weeks/ 1year = $143'313.69

now that looks good

what i wanted to see if anyone see's any problems or faults with this plan / method

i plan only to use football bets and i am very disciplined now and wont risk all my pot on one bet

15% in 1 weekend seems pretty easy although slip-ups can happen
plus you could break it down over the week in to small pieces

i'd be interested that if others would be willing to try this method along with me from the new year who haven't used it before

starting from beginnning of january with $100 and adding that 15% approx a week. Using a set out thread to discuss peoples progress

i'm keen to hear members responses expectaly BFA as i can imagine he has an opinion on this
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2nd out of 3115 in Sun Poker Free-Roll

[Betfairalfie]

Are you sums right? YES. But most sensible people would have the occassional withdrawal which will see the annual figure reduce.

Can it be done? POSSIBLY. I'd prefer trading to punting, as its much easier to hit the target that way. I'd also want to lower the target to say 10% per week (2% x 5 not 7) to take the pressure off slightly.

Could I do it by punting on football? NO. Not a chance. A very tough game to make long-term money on. I don't know anyone who does make football pay long-term and is able to prove it to me conclusively.

Can YOU do it? You know that best yourself. Have you got the selection ability to do it? Will your discipline let you down? Self examination time there. Your OLBG record seems to show your better at football than horse racing - which is a good sign.

Tips/advice?
- First of all I'd recommend donating your current OLBG winnings to the OLBG Charity fund - good Karma is priceless.
- Your starting with a small pot and that could increase the chances of poor discipine as throwing 50% of your bank on one selection still might seem a "small bet". If I was you I'd consider my bank to be 10000 pennies. Betting in pennies may help psychologically, until say you have a 1000 pound bank and can revert to betting in pounds.

I will gladly give more comments as the detail of your attempt becomes clearer.

Be Lucky

[thatsa donkey]

Hi Lazystakes,

I know the theory, but I cannot see how it could be put into practice. 15% per week just punting on Footie?? The prob I have is working out what you do when you take hit?? The theory only seems to work if you actually make 2-3% per day and this cannot be guaranteed. I would feel constrained by the weekly targets and would need to go looking for bets rather than having an outstanding bet jump out at me before I make a punt.

It is a great Idea and I would be happy to give it a go but I would need clarification on the rules. I am pretty new to footie betting (after realising I was no good at horseracing) and after looking at it this year I am learning a lot.

In a similar vein I started an experiment on an exchange earlier in the year with min deposit of 10pts and min stakes 2pts. It was a little hairy at first knowing that if I had 5 losing bets I would have wiped out my bank. I do feel however that the possibilty of losing the whole bank very quickly made me more cautious and very disciplined in my choice of bet

If you can work out the rules and what happens when you take a few hits, then I would be happy to give it a go.

Best of Luck.

Donkey.

[thetitan]

ditto what BFA and donkey have said.

2% is probably achievable - BFA, is this similar to your daily target?

I find that although I know a fair bit about football, most people's area of expertise is the Premiership...and that's mainly on the weekends, with the odd midweek game if we're lucky. So 2% every single day is very difficult to achieve as you're trying to find games. I don't know how it's possible to trade on football unless you're going along the 'Lay the favourite then back 10 mins later' route.

I prefer punting on football as opposed to trading for this very reason. In other sports (eg NFL, cricket, rugby etc), a score doesn't affect the odds that drastically.

Football trading is roulette IMO...football punting is awesome though
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[Betfairalfie]

[rounder]

What I have to say here is going to get whacked by the masses, I know this but I will do it anyway.

If you are going to start with a bank which you are "happy to lose" then 15% a week may be, wait for it, chasable. 15/100 a week is as close to a sure thing your gonna get. I say have a little look cos rolling up short price favourites together with a bit of knowledge could go far.

It will, as you mention, be down to dicipline. Not so much in the chase but to stop when the target is reached.

Chasing is a risky business and not to be done with money that "you need". But if you dont give it a go you aint ever going to know.

I like this idea so much that I am going to adopt it. Maybe I have missed a point somewhere along the way, but from what I understand of it, it is very appealing to me.

Good Betting, Rounder

[thetitan]

thanks BFA

rounder, with all due respect, the inherent flaw is that you're chasing, which is akin to going Martingale ad nauseam IMO. First rule of betting/trading/gambling...never chase!
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[lazystakes]

Great comments guys ,

And you are right chasing is the last thing i'll be doing , thats what i ment by my discipline being pretty good i have learnt when to stop and have a break ,

the conclusion is i don't trade that often and was purely explaining that it was sports betting . mainly football bets that i would be doing ,however yours is your own to decide

i would just like to see a new thread start of the year using this method with peoples total then there bets and outcomes similiar to the football idol competion but instead of going for a limit of a month make it two steps half and a full year.

the advice from BFA on when you first start out would be that $100 wouldnt seem that much to lose and affect your judgement on stakes that you would bet are true but that is where your discipline would play a role

obliviously there are too many factor's that could happen while trialing this through out the year , so listing them would be endless but if you took a hit and took a step back depending on the amount you lost would affect your total a the half and full year intervals

so regards to rules or set-up

1. Starting bank $100 or same amount but in pennies

2. Adopting same method as football idol you write up your weekly selections and totals

3.Being avalible for other users to see , we could see from each other where problems lie and if there is a better way to benefit from this method

4.There would be a separate section or using the daily football threads to compare and discuss what we would bet on

5.As time goes on i would imagine some people would lose there way and chase while others would continue with discipline this would be valuable for people to see why disciplne is key and show why there failing to make longer term profit

6.I set the amount at $100 as this to me seems reasonable for most people to start with and with us all starting on the same amount there is no advantage to anyone

7. This is not a competion between us if you use your own real money you will grasp your own benefits in hard cash, so trying to be the highest earner each win will achieve you nothing

8. Supporting each other through weekly bets with discussion would greatly help i believe and improve people's grip on disciplne betting

ANY OTHER THOUGHTS FROM YOU ALL WOULD BE GRATEUL AND LIKE STATED THIS WILL NOT BE A COMPETION
_________________
3rd in Copa America Comp

2nd out of 3115 in Sun Poker Free-Roll

[lazystakes]

And my charity donations being handed over now!
_________________
3rd in Copa America Comp

2nd out of 3115 in Sun Poker Free-Roll

[thetitan]

happy to contribute to that...also worth considering getting a blog IMO where you can post your selections, and it records P/L automatically for you.
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[dflorin]

Hi lazystakes,

I would also like to join in. I will be following your posts. One question though: do you have a strategy/system on how to recover from long(er) losses? Or would it be freely chose by each of us separately?

What do you use for that?

Regards,
Florin.

[Antony OLBG]

Id you are setting yourself a weekly target then if you have a couple of losers you are going to have to chase to make the target by the end of the week. Id say set longer term targets so that when you have a bad day you dont feel pressured into trying to get the money back quickly