Is Laying profitable

[mineman]

From Boxing Day on i am starting to Lay horses instead of backing them, does it work and can you make enough profit from it,

i back for fun at the moment, but my New Year resolution is to go semi pro, its a big step but its one i will relish,

i love my horses exept for my Ex, and i would like to follow in the footsteps of Dave Nevison, but Laying is my game and i am combining 2 of my formulars and see how far up the lays table i can go,

while everyone is stuffing turkey down them and wearing silly hats i will be beavering away in the form books, and while your eating your Xmas puds and listening to the queens speech i will be unvailing my new system, in june it had a 96 % strike rate 31 losing lays and i am crossing it with a new formula, so watch this space,

i looked at the King George Race and Taranis is lurking in there he's done 3 Miles in ireland and sam Thomas will want to upstage Ruby, whats your thoughts.

any advice on laying would be welcome staking and pitfalls.

[turfline]

I do wish you the best but have you been doing a trial run?.I have just done a 3 month trial run with some colleage's on a football system that they ran for 6 month's previous and have just started blogging them, i do think that some sort of track record is essential and your staking plan and betting tank are in order... and that you take note of every transaction you do and if you have such a high percentage strike rate forget the title of semi-pro go upmarket and become a Financial Invester should someone inquire.

[mineman]

Hi, yes i have done a dry run, and my performances have improved, with all the meetings Boxing day and some money in the tank its time to go for it.

[turfline]

I agree S. Thomas will be trying to do his best in the race and i must admit that i have also been going through results (last three season's looking back were i have done my own handicaping) to see price's and compare and i do like what i see in laying but i will leave that till the spring 2008.

[fairfranco]

mineman I thought you'd already been profitably trading on OLBG for a long time?

I was following your tips a couple of months back and you had an outstanding strike rate then you lost a couple and suddenly stopped!

[mineman]

fairfranco nice to see your still about, i am spring cleaning My Racing, yes i did have a formula that produced a high strike rate on the flat of losers, may be it will work over the sticks i will see, i could have laid alot more at shorter prices if i had the gaul,

if you go to my lays i am 21st and progressing rapidly with my new method the problem with me i am not mathamaticaly minded i prefer poetry and music, maths bore me,

anyway there is some wonderful racing on the horizon after xmas the King George may have 1 or 2 flies in the ointment, my way Dezolsen, Taranis, and Racing Demon, hoping to take the crown, you need something that will be handy and will attack the fences i think speed is the essence not a plodder.

[fairfranco]

with lays like you've had this week i don't see you having any problems!

took up your lays for the last 2 days including a nice low odds loser in Zirkel. i foolishly layed at 2.5 and 2.3 but it later hit 2.1 and possibly lower before drifting prior to the off and then getting easily beat.

Keep em up like that and you should be able to answer the question for yourself!

[mineman]

Hi fairfranco, Some Touch went down aswell today at Musselburgh its difficult shouting for it to lose when everyone is screaming it home,

i went through his form and speed ratings and the form was not the standard to win this race today.
hopefuly the form will continue.

[fairfranco]

another good day again for you yesterday (and me! ) keep it up!

What's your staking plan for your bets, do you bet different amounts depending on the odds or on what you percieve it's chances of winning are?

I've been using your Lay bets but have set a keep bet to trade them out in play if they hit a certain price. while this loses some of the profits and doesn't stop horses who win and their odds never go high there are a fair amount whoose odds go out enough to make a good trade and still come back to win.

This could go someway to ensure you are profitable though you may need to follow the prices for a while to try to work out what is the best price to set a trade out.

[mineman]

fairfranco bad day today,Bobby Gee won well i could accept that, but disapointed Beat the boys won after carnage at the last ( Lucky winner ) i needed them for the Lay competition in which i was 12th, i blew £8000 on lays.

on the other hand i layed Jimmy Tennis and Be My Benefit Punchestown for my personal betting and both obliged, so not all lost.

i will be about tonight if anyone wants to join in on the thread,
its time to spring clean you betting and reflect on the year gone by.

Happy New Year to all fellow punters.

[Doommeister]

Hi Chaps,

I do the GG's every day. I've tried so many unsuccesfull systems it's untrue.I started looking for punters on here with high strike rate's + profit & that works quite nicely. I can also recommend 'Racing Secrets Exposed' but that costs £47.00 upfront...

HOWEVER, I HAVE THE CRAZIEST LAYING SYSTEM WHICH WINS ME AT LEAST 15.00 A DAY & AS HIGH AS 70.00!!

Think about this ok, Just like in a game of cards how often does a 2 come up with a 2 or a 3 with a 3 - there's a 1 in 14 chance of this happening. This is what I do... With the alphabet there's a 58-1 chance of this going against you...
I came across this system because I tend to pick & poke & try & find a 'certainty' or loophole for both football & racing & was just 'experimenting' one night.

I go to the first race meeting of the day (say Limerick) & try & find a horse that starts with A & is 40-1 or shorter.
If no A then closest to it either up or down the alphabet. I then find the longest odds possible. so no A available but a B with 16-1 or a Z with 20-1. I would go for the Z. If no A or Z then closest to that letter either way. (Say H)
The next race would start with H & I'd try & find a H or closest to it either side, & so on for the next race of that meeting. You repeat this for all meetings on that day.
My liabilty never exceeds 40 pts & I would only win 2 pts with this race. However on a 11.00 (Under is my cushion) horse you would make 4 pts.
I place a bet on every race, but never shorter than 11.0 & no longer than 40.0 - There has to be at least 7 runners.
Using this system, every day I have 35+ wins compared to just 1 or 2 coming in. - The highest amount made from this using the basic system was 84 pts, the lowest -6 pts.
As the chance's of 1 coming in are very slim you can very easily reach your 15-25 pts cutoff (which I recommend) EVERY DAY (& I HAVE BEEN FOR LAST 3 DAYS) Once I've reached 200 pts I'll be doubling up & so on.
I have full stats of December on a spreadsheet which I can send to you if you'd like proof that this MAD system actually works. It works mainly because of the pure randomness of a result going against you is so slim. If you keep to the system, don't be swayed at recent horse finishing results or odds, or any form for that matter then it works wonderfully.

I know that it's a crazy system but believe you me, it's made me more money than by using any 'system' that is out there!! Give it a try paper trading (or looking at last weeks results) & be amazed!!

Have a great year!!

Mark

[Homeinaflat]

Hello Doommeister and All,

My first posting here on OLBG, in fact I only joined this afternoon after reading this thread.

Following far too many years of betting and getting no where (well not very far) my mystical "ether" friends on another sadly demised, over Christmas, TSL forum suggested I turn my hand to laying.

The very well known, Maria (Massey) has been of tremendous help but of course would not tell of her own system which has left me stumbling somewhat in the dark. In truth I have self created two methods which offer much promise and am using them to find my way around Betfair, however the selections are limited, today I had only two.

I shall keep dipping in here for your reply and wish to thank you inSo much for my back ground, which brings me to Doommeister and your Mad - Crazy, laying system which has encaptured me and I offer my congratulations for having such a creative and furtile mind.

My questions are three fold.

My first question, being related to the prices, I am thinking that when you are deciding to bet, on busy days when there is a lot of racing you must have prepared your alphabetical selections in advance, so you must be using a S.p. forecast, am I right, or are you taking Betfair's own prices, because if so you really must have a lightning fast brain to be working out selections plus prices.

This afternoon, as a trial I worked from newsaper s.p,s but when I checked the results many were far, far below the 11 cut off, in fact one was down as low as 7/2. If you can bear with me and explain how you go about all this I will be very much in your debt and also in awe.

The second being, why run up and down on the alphabet and not simply continue until the next letter rather than the closest. A small thing but I find it confusing and prefer the simple.

Third and perhaps the most important, will you please clarify the staking you use, I have read, re-ead and read again but still my simple mind cannot some to terms with what you are trying to explain.

Your minimum odds is 11 decimal (10/1) and can make you 4 points if all goes well, so 4pts. at 11, so far so good, I can grasp that.

However, you say there is a max. liability of 40 points when you reach the top end of 41 (40/1) and will generate 2 points profit. These poor old brain cells of mine has been trying to work out the graduation but keep hitting a brick wall.

I think you are working to a fixed or maximum liability of 40 but please put an old man out of his misery but to generate 2 points profit at 40/1 is a liabilty of 80.

I shall keep diping in here looking for your reply and thank you in advance.

Yours truly,

Happyinaflat