Is Laying profitable

[Homeinaflat]

Good day to you (Doommeister) Mark,

Sadly with age comes fear! As I said "no balls of steel here" and so this whole thing has given me a very sleepless night. However, as so often happens during those long dark hours it can be opportune to putting those grey cells to work.

I have come to a fork in the road, the result being not to change your method, which after all is rather presumptious of me anyway but I am afraid sometimes my enthusiasm to get the better of me, instead to create something akin but different.

Will you be so kind as to answer yet another couple of questions for me.

Before laying, check there are at least 3 horses in the betting below 8.0, are you talking about prices to back or Lay? My guess is here that they should be "betting prices rather than "laying prices".

Then you say, those 3 horses total odds (bet or Lay) should add to a minimum of 19.

Can you please explain "Why 19".

Most of your approach feels geared to smaller fields or at least to minimum fields (7) and therefore when there are larger fields, say 16 - 20, when there are more (loosely defined) favourites and perhaps larger prices on offer, should the figure of 19 be flexible or increased.

With much respect,

Homeinaflat

[Homeinaflat]

Hi Dommeister (Mark),

Sorry I forgot to answer your question regarding wanting clarification of 10.

Although I have stopped "betting" in order to concentrate on learning the skill of laying, I always used 10 as a filter.

I would only make my selection to "back" when the most recent 3 form figures did not exceed 10: -

531 = 9, 114 = 6, 021 = 10, all = positive betting filter.
( zero and letters F,PU,UR = 7 each)

F61 = 15, 1F3 = 11, 0F2 = 14 = negative bettng filter etc.

But, that is when "backing"

I have found when "laying" I have to put my mind in reverse, because I don't want a winner, I want a loser and therefore 10 and under denotes the horse has a chance of winning the race and becomes a negative whilst a high scoring 3 form figures when laying becomes a positive within my expectation of not winning the race.

Golly this reverse thinking does my brain in sometimes, but I do hope you understand my clumsy explainaton.

Homeinaflat

[Doommeister]

Hi,

Yes that's the Betting prices


'Then you say, those 3 horses total odds (bet or Lay) should add to a minimum of 19.'

No - it's MAXIMUM of 19. So to assure you have at least 3 hot favourites running for you. (say 8 + 6 + 3 = 17) Any 9.00 +'s do not count as it's too high & not really a 'favourite'

You might find that quite a few times your horse may come 2nd, 3rd or 4th so for the 11.00 to 26-1 to one's I've started to place 2 pts on them at Each Way.

Minimum runners = 7 but recommend up to 12.00

As I say, paper trade it for a few days & see how you do - then kick yourself!!

[Homeinaflat]

Thanks again "Doommeister", Mark,

Well today is proving very hard indeed to meet the rules as laid down but I have noticed you set a max. field of 12......... interesting!

I have said I am very, very, new to the laying experience but for what I am about to suggest I am expecting some very serious replies telling me that I am about to be ambulanced off to the local "loony" bin.

I am trying this this afternoon and by tea-time I could be filing for bankruptcy.

If the lower priced horses (in theory) have a better chance of winning, I think you say you have started to take e.w. bets with them, then why not reduce the stake and if the 40/1 shots stand much less of a chance of winning, then perhaps the stakes should be greater.

I suggest: -

11 - 17 = 2pts. stake

18 - 25 = 3pts. stake

26 - 33 = 4pts. stake.

34 - 41 = 5pts. stake.

Balls of steel ! ! !

Homeinaflat

[Betfairalfie]

Home - I wouldn't stake a penny of real money until you've trialled your system for a few weeks.

I do assure you that laying is not the Golden Egg that many people may think and I'd hate to see you have more sleepless nights when you've done the rent money

[Homeinaflat]

G'day BetfairAlfie,

Thanks for the words of advice, which I do realise are very well intended. Have no fears the "rent money" is well protected.

I started taking an interest in the horses too many years ago and a wise man once said to me, "Judge a punter by how little he looses not by how much (he says) he wins", he continued "we all have to pay to enjoy our hobbies and this one is no different".

I have aways remembered these words, even at times such as this when I find it hard to sit on the side-lines and just watch, what is it the advert say's "It matters more when there is money on it".

Since I have taken an interest in laying I found my "cushion" as I think "Doommeister" calls it and I refer to it as my "comfort zone" is not laying the short priced favourites that looks to be most popular with the majority of layers.

On reading the 130+ pages of Maria's laying experience it looks to be the "shorties" which have cost her dear and finding "Doommeister'" system and approach of going for the outsiders I feel this could be my niche but only time will tell but like so many avenues it could turn out to be a cul-de-sac.

Regards

Homeinaflat

[Doommeister]

Homeinaflat,

Good on for taking a risk - please just make sure that it's money you can afford to lose if it goes pear-shaped!! it works quite nicely with just 40.00 liabilty as originally stated but takes longer to build up. Perhaps make a profit from doing this before go for the big 100.00

As said previously, try the system against previous weeks / month's for a week at a time & see how it works out.

Incidently, I too have been using Maria's system which when matched with EW 2pts for the longer odds works very nicely. Some - days but most in slight profit.
Would it be possible to have a copy of the Maria experience as I'd love to read up on it!! My Email address is a certain User name followed by Hotmail.com

Best of luck today Mate, I have my fingers crossed for you!!

[Homeinaflat]

Maria's laying experiment.

I wish I was more proficient with computer technology but sadly in my case, well, old dogs and new tricks etc.

Try this: -

www.expertbettingadvice.co.uk/forum/index.php?action=stats

then go to the box headed, Top 10 topics (by replies) and Maria's thread will be top of the list.

Give it a click and you should be there at Page 1.

I think I am up to page 60, I read a bit as and when I have time, whatever your opinions there will be a lesson or two to be learned.

Enjoy,

Homeinaflat

[Homeinaflat]

I am unable to answer the question "Is laying profitable?" at this stage being only a recent convert to laying but I will say perhaps it is time to share.

Doommeister's crazy alphabet selection has opened my sphere of thinking to the larger priced outsiders as opposed to favouring the shorty favourites.

Risky this maybe, costly it may well prove to be but nevertheless this is my proposed staking for my lays. Oh yes, I will stop it should I go bust within the week! ! !
Bank £1,000.

Selections between 11 and 41 (decimal) split into 4 groupings.

11 - 17 = 0.2% of daily adjusted bank (starting at £2)

18 - 25 = 0.3% of daily adjusted bank (starting at £3)

26 - 33 = 0.4% of daily adjusted bank (starting at £4)

33 - 41 = 0.5% of daily adjusted bank (starting at £5)

I have borrowed Maria's ratchet plan of adjusting the bank (upwards only) on a daily basis.

My proposed (experimental) selection and laying system will have more selections at bigger prices and I am hoping to achieve 2 selections when in the 33 - 41 range and can therefore split the 0.5% (£5) into 2 being £2.50 each, thus reducing any hit to circa £100 rather than £200.

To me this makes a kind of twisted logic that 40/1 shots are less risky than the 10/1's but please don't watch this space or listen out for sounds of gunshot.

Homeinaflat

[mineman]

I am not trying to pour cold water on your ideas, but are your liabilities 40/1, laying has been a bit of a nightmare lately, the form book as gone through the window,
Hereford today was a classic case get in front and its goodnight vienna all over, but some jockeys think they have rocket and can catch them up, please listen jockeys, soft or heavy ground means you have to get in front and stay in front, its virtually impossible to get a ton of horse to move fast in heavy ground, the fundementals of racing and science, you jockeys seem to ignore these principles as you did in the bumper today.

[Homeinaflat]

Hi there Mineman,

I am not really sure what your point is

Maybe you are simply saying that a 40/1 shot is just as likely to win as perhaps any other horse in the race.

I can't disagree. It has 4 legs, head and a tail and as they say, it does not know it is an outsider.

Is this not the idea of the sport, the calculations are done the percentages you think are in your favour and from there on in the money is down and within a few minutes you know if the gamble was a good one or a bad. one.

All the very best of luck to you, me and the rest.

Homeinaflat

[Doommeister]

Hi Chaps,

Please paper trade first to see if it is for you - Maybe even tweak it a little here & there. Remember, you have to speculate to accumulate.

One system I use is to place an EW bet on the horses that I Lay. so 4 pts on a 9.00 means 2.25 on EW - I then place an unconfirmed bet for 2x over that so if it (usually) gets picked up I'll back 2 pts on 4.5 Most of my lays come 2nd or 3rd so the outcome = Win (32.00) + 7.00 = (25.00) 2nd/3rd = 4.00 + 7.00 = 11.00, 4th & lower = 2.00 profit or 4.00 if not picked up.

So many Lays come 2nd, 3rd or 4th where that is applicable that it makes sense to do it this way. Not only that, but the inevitable win is covered by the 4 or 5 close calls so I usually come away with a profit or just a small loss.

I read Maria's thread earlier today & gotta say good on her for attempting such a challenge!! personally, I would have withdrawn 50G & carried on...

Homeinaflat, how did you do today?? if successful then perhaps you could become the New Maria (But perhaps with just the high heals & eye shadow at w/ends, huh!!??)