SYSTEM WORKSHOP Want me to check your [HORSE RACING] system?

[man o bong]

Right, i could be leaving myself wide open here, so i'll just get a couple of things out of the way

I will only check systems that..

1) I am actually able to do with the software i have

2) If i think there is any point ( i have checked hundreds of combinations already so have an idea of what will be a waste of time)

3) If i have time

4) If i can be bothered, which i suppose is a bit of 2) above really.

5) Horse racing UK & IRE only

With that out of the way, if you would like me to check historical results for a system that you believe may be a winning one, let me know the criteria here on this thread, i will research it (subject to above conditions), and post up the results, and after discussion, if we come to the conclusion that it may be worth following i am willing to post up qualifiers too on seperate threads dedicated to that system.

I will give this a trial run, to see how it goes. I am sure i will be bowled over with requests to start with, so will go through them in the order they appear here, then i expect things will settle down a bit

Let the barrage begin.................................................
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[fritos59]

Good on you

How about the fate of odds on favs....not for backing but for laying.Interested to see how they get on. If possible.Cheers

[man o bong]

Now fritos would you like the results of every single race run in ireland and the uk over the last 5years on the flat anf the jumps or would you like to be a little more specific.

Perhaps give me a chance here.

hurdles or chases or flat

handicaps or stakes

novice, maidens, beginners, 2yo, 3yo, 4yo, etc etc

come on use your imagination a bit and narrow it down for me, and i'll take a look.
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[man o bong]

i think i have this one already stored, bear with me, and i'll check the criteria, i'm pretty sure its in this threads section already
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[man o bong]

ok, i have just checked the criteria for the 5f system i have in this section of the forum and it is

5F RACES
WOLVES AND DUNDLAK
BEST DRAW
BEST LATEST EFFICIENCY CLEAR BY 4 (This is from the ratings i use)

So its not far off what you are after.

i can run it again to include the best Speed rating, but would like the best latest speed rating, the best average speed rating, or the best ever speed rating?

would you like it to include all, course or specific ones?

min or max class, number if runners etc?
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[man o bong]

i'll tell you what, i'll do a full scan on all turf 5f races for ya,

and then give you a break down at the end on a spredsheet then you can pik the bones out of it.

alright?
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[man o bong]

Thats cool, i have about an hour to go on one i'm doing now, then i'll set this one up to go through the night, may not be ready for the morning, but should be able to finish it sometime tomorrow
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[23RedRaider]

Hey MOB, it's a very generous offer and one I'm sure many people will appreciate.

Did you buy chance manage to sneak off with a copy of Mr Massey's database of historic race data?

I'm a bit of a systems man myself and have been gathering selected race data for approx 16 months (UK only). The RP has been my main source of data + Adrian Massey's site (although it's geared around favourites and his own ratings)... reverse checking of systems is what you need to do (if you want to save considerable time)... and obviously this is something you are able to do.

Have you managed to identify any potential golden eggs out of the many systems I assume you have run through your database?

I may well come back to you on the offer at some stage.

[man o bong]

[man o bong]

Right, time for the results for mtysocks system request: I RAN RESULTS FROM 1/4/6 -

CRITERIA

NAME: BAKTURF5FBESTASP

ALL TURF RACES UK ONLY
5 FURLONGS
BEST AVERAGE SPEED RATING


ALL 215-1479 (14%) -296.21 ROI-21%
ALL (LONE) 186-1254 (14%) -268.42 ROI-22%

So overall we can see this is a big loser, so lets pick our way through to see if we can make this a bit more successful. Originally mention had been made of using perhaps best draw advatage. Lets see what this does to our figures

Draw: Best 56-306 (18%) +15.55 ROI 5.08%Av Sp 5.74/1
Draw: Worst 60-403 (14%) -93.9 ROI-24%Av Sp 5.15/1

So it would seem that the draw advantage does give us moves towards better results over the minimum trip.

Lets move and see the difference between handicaps and stakes races.

Type: Handicaps 89-878 (10%) -223.41 ROI-26% Av Sp 7.35/1
Type: Stakes 126-601 (20%) -72.7 ROI-13% Av Sp 4.19/1

The winning SR is half as high in Handicaps as in stakes races as would be expected. This runs true almost all the time. Althoug, once again, expected the Sp's are higher in the handicaps th losses are greater.

Before filtering through and backfitting to improve the stats i thought it might be worth having a quick look to which courses came out most favourably from the basics.

Firstly all courses that showed a profit from the basic criteria

Just a reminder that the figures are

wins-runs/ SR%/ LSP/ ROI/ AV Sp

Course: BRIG 13-58 22% +26.4 45% 6.49/1
Course: CHEP 4-20 20% +14 70% 8.5/1
Course: SAND 17-85 20% +11.11 13% 5.65/1
Course: ASCO 2-17 11% +10.5 61% 13.75/1
Course: LEIC 8-34 23% +8.77 25% 5.35/1
Course: SALI 4-16 25% +7 43% 5.75/1
Course: RIPO 6-35 17% +4.83 13% 6.63/1
Course: GOOD 8-45 17% +2.16 4.80% 5.89/1
Course: WIND 9-55 16% +0.7 1.27% 6.19/1

Brighton is an interesting course to be at the top, and with my knowledge of the course, being only the second most frequently visited race course by myself behind Goodwood, it would be ineteresting to see if these figures were toimprove with besr draw factored in.

a quick look for the worst too so we know which tracks to avoid

Course: CATT 6-75 8% -52.14 -70% 3.81/1
Course: CHES 4-54 7% -34.5 -64% 4.87/1
Course: HAYD 3-45 6% -27.89 -62% 5.7/1
Course: YORK 3-49 6% -28.5 -59% 6.83/1
Course: PONT 1-30 3% -25.5 -85% 4.5/1

Cetainly it would seem that catterick is the last place that an average speed rating that is better than anyone elses counts for anything with an abysmal 8%SR. Unsurprisingly the very tight CHESTER appears in the list although i am sure if we factored out the speed rating and just concentrated on draw advatage this course would quantumleap between the worst and the most favourable course to follow.

HERES THE GOING

Going: F 23-105 21% +13.8 13% 5.16
Going: G 60-411 14% -121.97 -30% 4.81
Going: GF 93-616 15% -56.53 -9.18% 6.01
Going: GS 26-210 12% -45.97 -22% 6.3
Going: H 5-36 13% -15.41 -43% 4.12
Going: S 8-101 7% -70.17 -70% 3.85





I didnt say anything before i ran it but was apprehensive over the speed rating criteria. The reason for this is becuase by using this type of info, you are introducing perception. by this i mean the speed rating is only the OPINION of someone and not a straight down the line hard fact like BEST DRAW or NUMBER OF RUNNERS etc.

So thats a basic overview of the system, which for me would need far too much backfitting to make it viably unviable if you see what i mean. A spreadsheet with full results if available fo anyone wants one. Please request ARBAKTURF5FBESTASP if you would like a copy. It includes two work sheets, won with all results of all qualifiers and the other the breakdown of hundreds of factors

My inquisitive side is insisting i run this for the all weather over the same time span to see what comes up. So, factored out the turf course, in come the aw courses and off we go again.......

and the results for AW races are as follows.


ALL 82-565 14% -83.63 ROI-15% Av Sp 5.87
ALL (LONE) 70-460 15% -47.99 ROI-11% Av Sp 5.88

The strike rates are pretty similar, so lets look agains at the best draw advantage

Draw: Best 21-85 24% +23.32 27% 5.15
Draw: Worst 14-134 10% -54.28 -41% 5.69

Type: Handicaps 36-307 11% -56.92 -19% 6.94
Type: Stakes 46-258 17% -26.62 -11% 5.03



Course: KEMP 11-63 17% +12.98 20% 6.9
Course: WOLV 34-241 14% -14.3 -5.94% 6.67
Course: SOUT 20-151 13% -54.42 -37% 4.83
Course: LING 17-110 15% -27.86 -26% 4.83
So Kempton was the only Course to show prfit on this aw test

Once again if you would like the full results and stats request ARBAKAW5FBESTASP
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[Hindsight]

Hi MOB now im interested if its better than Massey will try to think of a couple of systems for you to test
ps what you doing up at 3.02 am lol

[man o bong]