SYSTEM WORKSHOP Want me to check your [HORSE RACING] system?

[man o bong]

Right i will dothis quickly, then i must get on with some other bits and pieces taht are pending.

All qualifiers, including multiples in single races

682-4399 (15%) -904.74

Now if you take just the races with single qualifiers in,which i think was the original idea you get the following

190-934 (20%) -130.53

So major improvement, although still an overall loss blind.

So lets look to what angles may be there...

We mentioned earlier the possibility of seasonal differences in oerformance of the system. There is a parabola which rises from the start of the season peaks in July and then falls away again Strike rate progress from march at (%) 12, 14, 14, 18, 16, 16,13, whislt over the same period the average starting price of the winners has a converse parabola running from march once again at (/1) 4.5, 4.5, 3.9, 3.7, 3.7, 4.1, 5.1. So these figures would seem to cancel each other out somewhat. We need to look elsewhere...

Although not narrowing this down just yet the yearly strike rates are not discouraging, they have if anything actually got better as time has passed.

Hmmmm!, actually going throught this lot there isnt much to go on.

I am going to firstly cut out anything forecast to start at 6/1 or greater as the strike rates on these are very low compared with those below, so we may improve things from there..

The next thing i will do is remove races with prizes over £20k,

Thats pretty much all there is to go on, there is no difference between best and worst draw, and only two tracks have come up favourable and thats too much of a cut to make the system viable, so i will run it again with cut backs i have made and see where that leaves us.

This may take a bit longer than i original envisaged.

bear with me
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[man o bong]

I will run it over the 2007 season and see what comes up, then decide if i'll give it a full run or not..

Fingers crossed
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[man o bong]

Right the sample size for 2007 and with the slight changes has become a bit smaller and easier to work with.

All lone qualifiers has come down to 54-206 (26%) -16.93pts.

There now appear some interesting variables.

If you take those being run at Thirsk or Lingfield you find over 50% strike rates and double figure positiv LSP's.

Heres a nice one, from30 qualifiers that Seb sanders rode, he managed to get 15 of them home first for a 50%SR and a profit of £19.36 to £1.

The jockeys seem to come out on top with this system too.

If you took all qualifiers being riddec by the best jockey at the course, (best strike rate that is), you would have the following

41-112 (36%) +40.46pts

Now thats a viable system.

Of course this was just over last season, so time to put it to the acid test and run it since 2002 to see how the long term results stack up.
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