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bfnewbie
Handicapper


Joined: 01 Feb 2008
Posts: 17

PostPosted: Sat Mar 01, 2008 3:15 pm    Post subject: No Runner No Bet on Ante Post bets

Only started on Betfair this year, so haven't followed this idea yet, but is it possible to pick a small handful of high priced horses with a bookie offering NRNB, then on the day if it does run Lay the horse on Betfair for a profit?

e.g. some of the Cheltenham races have 80 odd runners on a race at the moment. I assume the odds will be much lower on the day, although the back/Lay spread on some events is quite high, so getting a feel of what the Lay price would be is a bit of a guess I assume?


Last edited by bfnewbie on Sat Mar 01, 2008 3:25 pm; edited 1 time in total
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Dammo Qwirky
Stallion


Joined: 29 Oct 2004
Posts: 5920

PostPosted: Sat Mar 01, 2008 3:20 pm    Post subject:

if they are long priced, they will be longer priced on Betfair. also to be laying long priced horses u r gonna need a big bankroll. even if u do manage it theres not gonna be much of a profit of laying off unless price difference is large.
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bfnewbie
Handicapper


Joined: 01 Feb 2008
Posts: 17

PostPosted: Sat Mar 01, 2008 3:30 pm    Post subject:

I meant Ante post - e.g. at the moment
Chelt 11th Mar - Supreme Nov Hrd
94 runners quoted

- Today Back £10 on Moon Mix at 150/1 with Paddy Power - NRNB
- On the day if it runs, there won't be 94 horses. How would the odds compare on Betfair with that?

Or even applying this to the other end of the scale
Captain Cee Bee is currently 8.0 with Paddy Power NRNB with 93 other runners quoted. Surely the Lay odds on Betfair on the day would be less than 8.0

I will probably paper trade this idea for fun - just wondered if anyone had done something similar in the past
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