Would you share your system?

princecap · Classic Winner Joined: 02 Feb 2008 Posts: 519

No, I am not asking for one.

Thing is, I have managed to produce a system for horse racing which is giving very decent results (about 40%+ on blind backing every race analysed and 66% on confident bets).

Thing is, I think this is fairly successful, and I was wondering if people normally share their successful systems?

Personally, I'd rather not, but I am wondering if I am being selfish/protective by doing so? Having said that, I have been giving out decent tips (for free and not here) and people are winning fair bit of money...

Danke Smile

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SuperCat · Posted: Sun Mar 30, 2008 6:47 pm Post subject:

Does it, in your opinion, have a "commercial value"?

If "Yes" - keep it to yourself. Try and market it.

If "No" - tell us all about it. We're all ears.

Smile

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Dammo Qwirky · Stallion Joined: 29 Oct 2004 Posts: 5959

is that a short term success or is it over the course of a year or wouldnt it matter? im sure if u put it on here we could try to pick it to bits! it may be there is a flaw u havent yet spot (or hasnt actually occurred, eg a dead heat, many non runners etc)
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princecap · Classic Winner Joined: 02 Feb 2008 Posts: 519

It does seem to have commercial value, as everyone, incl me seems to be profiting (I still play in very low stakes though).

So I might keep it to myself.

Dammo, for now I would say short term success. I only started looking at horse racing last Sunday, and paper ran about 2 systems, which I stopped on the same day, as the results were barely noteworthy. As for this one, it has worked wonderfully over 5 days (Tues - Sun), giving a total of 23 out of 48 winners if each race is considered, but about 15/22 (rough figure) for confident races.

The odds generally start from 1.5 (sometimes favs get picked because they show a good 'rating', I have only had 4 picks with less than evens, and 2 of them lost) to one yesterday (Major Euro @ 26/1 odd, 1505 Newb). But these odds generally stay around 3/2 to 5/1 mark.

I am quite sure that the system has various flaws and perhaps can be further improved. The issue however is that I dunno much about horse racing, but I do know a lot about developing algorithms. And for this reason, I can't explain my selection in horse racing terms (as many posters do here). but simply in terms of how many points a horse obtained in its last 3 racings (other factors are also included). A professional punter looking at this system would laugh it away due to the fact that its as far away from horse racing as you can imagine (slight exaggeration: Its a form based analysis). This is another reason I am afraid to post my selections up, as I can't explain in terms that others use.

So the point is, system is quite basic and does not differentiate b/w chase, flat, handicap (ok, weight is considered) etc etc, although it does rely on previous (similar) race form. Plus, its giving a good short term output (confidence bet scenario gave LSP of +52 (esp due to that big winner)). However, short term results are an obvious stumblic point as its not a large enough sample. So I think it has potential, but unfortunately, I am not sure how much.

And I have to PM a brief outline to MoB, as he so nicely agreed to, which I will try to do soon enough!
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princecap · Classic Winner Joined: 02 Feb 2008 Posts: 519

I might as well ask here again:

What %age of success ratio is considered optimum (I know odds really play a role, but lets say between 3/2 and 4/1)?

Also, I understand that long term samples are considered, but is a general short term sample with aforementioned Strike Rates viable?
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SuperCat · Posted: Sun Mar 30, 2008 9:05 pm Post subject:

All I can tell you is that I seem to get 42/43% fairly consistently.

That's on football though. I've no idea if that's good or bad to be honest.
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Betfairalfie · Stallion Joined: 01 Mar 2005 Posts: 5239

jeremiah catskill · Posted: Sun Mar 30, 2008 11:06 pm Post subject:

Hi, when you first started posting - your selections bore all the hallmarks of the fineform system - ie 5pts a win, 3 for 2nd ,2 for 3rd & 1 for 4th. " pts for a C or D win & 3 if both.

I know its not exactly that but would be suprised if it isn't along the same lines.

If this is the case you will continue to have a decent strike rate but longterm lose money as - as you say yourself - its fairly basic.

A quick system is to back all novice hurdler fav's blindly - you'd have a nice 45-50% strike rate but a loss.

I'm afraid that if its to simple, & to good to be true - it probably is.

Good luck with it though & i urge you to share it here as others could develop it into a profitable system - maybe!

princecap · Classic Winner Joined: 02 Feb 2008 Posts: 519

Whatever alfie Cheeky

But seriously, it seems to have a potential to do well. I think so. Well, I hope so.

Jeremiah, thanks for another very informative post. Actually, the system is not fineform. It is a bit more complicated, with objective being trying to consider as many variables (b/w various races) as possible, which includes:
Wins, Places, Course Experience, Condition Experience, Class Jumps, Ground type (heavy/soft etc), Course Length and Handicap, Horse's previous record on the ground and over distance. The idea (as I have learnt through my course) is to reduce the impact of as many factors as possible in order to control the variables. Obv some of them cannot be controlled (like horse's condition on the day, jockey's mental condition on the day etc etc).

I am hoping that through some results I would be able to narrow down the 'good' options and play only the best ones.

As for sharing it, I see your point, but if you don't mind me being blunt: "Would you share your successful system?" I apologise if it seems like I am questioning your 'loyalty' to the forums (as I am fairly new, except for your achievements, I know nothing about your contribution), I am really not. I just want to know if perhaps seemingly best tipster on this forum shares/ever shared his secret!

Having said all this, I shall wait for another few days before posting it here. Its long term implications are obv questionable at this point of time.
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man o bong · Posted: Mon Mar 31, 2008 2:32 am Post subject:

Ello bud,

i am still waiting your info if you want me to run the sample through.

It does seem strange however that you have come on and mentioned that your system (however new) has this great strike rate and is making yourself and others money. (since last sunday), and then go on to say that you will not share it.

It really seems a bit of a pointless discussion, as it it turns full circle with no in or out.

i would suggest that if you donot want to share something on this sharing site then it is best left unsaid.

perhaps start again with another [open] idea and the help may be more forthcoming.

Good luck with the main venture though
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jeremiah catskill · Posted: Mon Mar 31, 2008 9:21 am Post subject:

princecap · Classic Winner Joined: 02 Feb 2008 Posts: 519

Cheers MoB. I know I still haven't sent you any outline, there's been so much going on atm. Time permitting, I will be able to explain things in detail here.

Furthermore, I think you mis-understood my OP. I said the system is fairly successful, and all I asked was if people share their system. I was trying to get some input from people on this question since giving tips and sharing ideas is a very new concept for me. It is not a pointless discussion since I hadn't made my mind about discussing my system. And tbh, I am still afraid to do so, mostly because its very basic, might have flaws, and will be ripped to shreds by more experienced punters here. Its not like I came in here teasing everyone about the fact that I won't share my system even though its successful. Like I said, all I am trying to do is to gauge people's perspectives regarding sharing of systems. Sharing or not sharing is something that should come later.

Alfie, in retrospect, I find your statement rather harsh. Nowhere did I say I am selling a fully developed successful system to anyone. I am not even charging for my tips (I learnt today that someone else on the forum who is picking up these tips is charging their mate, and this is putting me off). So all I really wanted to know if people share this system, not sell it. In retrospect, I fail to see the relevance of your comments but perhaps I should have judged them beforehand and given an apt response.

Jeremiah, the system is a bit tedious, but I find it fun to use as personally I like making and using different algorithms. From all the races that I am analysing, I am keeping a record of the success and the type of race and place the success came at. It would help me narrow down my choices, since I still have to understand various intricacies of horse racing.

I will post a detailed structure of the 'system'. Please feel free to point out the flaws and discuss various factors. Some questions I will be able to answer, and some I won't; only because sometimes values need to be tinkered through hit and trial rather than actual proportions. I think it might all make sense when I try and explain it...
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