Would you share your system?

[Betfairalfie]

Prince - you said

[princecap]

Extensive form analysis system:

The pre-requisite of the system is that for a race, most of the horses should have some form information available. Atleast 1 race record. If not, I tend to leave them alone. For this reason, and poor form quality, I haven't looked at a single Auction, Claimers, or Sellers race.

The idea is to 'cap' as many variables as possible, so that we can reduce their influence during actual race day. Many variables just cannot be made static, but a fair few can. Form analysis uses following features to pick out the best horses in a race (Form is considered over past 3 races):

Wins (3 points)
Place (1 point)
Class Difference (+/- 1 point)
Course Difference (1 point for same, 0 if not)
Distance Experience (Divided into 5 sub classes, 1 point of the condition of future race matches that of the past one)
Condition Experience (same as Distance one..)
Course Winner (in past 2 years; 2 points for each win, capped at 15 points)
Course place (same as Course Winner, but with 1 point)
Total length won/lost by (+/- length)

Now for the most recent race, multiply all these factors by 2, for the penultimate one, multiply by 1.5, for the next one, multiply by 1. For the course wins and course places, consider them a part of the most recent races.

Add the net results of all these variables amongst themselves (the length generally ends up in negative).

So now we have 8 different factors + Length.

Now introduce another factor called weight (or handicap). If a horse has been allocated a lower weight compared to the one with most weight, add it to the equation. For example, if horse A carries 9-12 and horse B carries 9-6, then put in +6 for Horse B.

Now add 1 to 8, and add (Weight/4). Call this number 'Adjusted'.
Finally, calculated Final = 4*Adjusted + Length.
(negative length would mean that its reduces a player's final value).

This should give us a number, which would dictate the horse's strength. IF we have the number for all the horses, re-arrange them in descending order. If this number for the final horse > Next horse, then we have a prospective bet. If this number is 40 (or more) than the next horse, then we have a confident bet. The points of confident bet start at 2 and go upwards till 5, depending on the number.

Possible flaws:
1. For a PU/NR/F (for a horse), the stats are not considered
2. A horse would be considered if it has atleast won 1 of its past 3 races. If not, then it should have atleast placed in 1 race and ended up in top half of the field in another race. If not, then it should have atleast ended up in top half of atleast 2 of the 3 races.
3. This method is applied too all types of races, so I can't say which one it would/would not work with.

A few results:
1. For the confident bets, 16/22 horses have won so far, with 3 other placing.
2. For non-confident bets, only 6/29 horses have won, with 8 more placing.
3. The biggest confident win has included 26/1, Major Euro at Newb (when I checked, its odds were 42/1)
4. The worst loss was a horse with odds of 1.39 in a chase, where teh confidence level was max.
5. Of the second predicted horses in confident bets, 1/22 have won, and 12/22 have placed.
6. Of the second predicted horses in non-confident bets, 9/29 have won (more than 1st predicted ones), and 14/29 have further placed.



Hope this not too complicated a system. Please feel free to discuss/question it. I will try and answer as many questions in the best possible manner.
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Numbers and me, Its a love-hate relationship. I love them, they hate me!

[princecap]

[princecap]

Perhaps I should mention what the system has thrown up:

1620 Winc: Oiseau De Nuit : 2.64 (2 points)
1710 Ling: Whats for Tea @ 7 (2 points)
*****************************************************
1350 Winc: Petito @ 9.4 (1 point) *Value Bet: Henry Holmes @ 51*
1440 Ling: Seductive Witch @ 8 (1 point)
1450 Winc: Von Gallen @ 2.98 (1 point) *Value Bet: Cashel Blue @ 55*
1540 Ling: Paradise Poker Dancer @ 6.2 (1 point)
1550 Winc: Harris Bay @ 5.7 (1 point)
1610 Ling: Maslaha @ 1.84 (1 point)

I would personally place most of the 1 pointers. But this is just to show what sort of results this system can produce. Again, I am not being arrogant, I am just hopeful, and rather than after-timing, would share my selections now so that if they win/lose, they can be questioned accordingly. At times, I also dutch (bet on 1st and 2nd on the list) on 2nd predicitions in the races I am less confident in.

Absolutely shambles of a day. Must admit, didn't expect it to be so bad. Not a single horse win, and De Nuit fell soon after starting
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Numbers and me, Its a love-hate relationship. I love them, they hate me!

[mike mercury]

The only systems that count are the ones where people wont tell you how to do them which makes sense but its nice for people to share the selections without giving up the seceret Man O Bong LAYS is a good example on his blog he gives you the tips that he feels can profit everyone .
P/S i would give one full season before considering a system tested enough
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NEVER WORRY ABOUT LOSER,S THEY ONLY BRING YOU ONE CLOSER TO YOUR NEXT WINNER

[princecap]

Cheers LLAAYYSS,

But I want to make it clear again: I am not hoping to sell any system. That would be the last thing I do. The question in the OP really pertained to 'sharing' of systems, which upon good advice, I shared.

Would love some feedback about it though, if possible! Although I reckon it might be way to general to perform tests (like MoB suggested).
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Numbers and me, Its a love-hate relationship. I love them, they hate me!

[man o bong]

Just a quick note Price,

i can tell you here and now, if you think i ma testing that system out over 6 years of results you have got to be having a laugh,

it must take an age to rate one race let alone a whole day, week month, year, oh forget it.

takes me back to HP days and an hour to rate each race by hand, oh the fun, oh the agony.


Looks like you caught the, "i'm gonna show off my system cold", that we all get as soon as we have the confidence of puttng the tips on show.

Please keep posting them up for the the following week however, as i am a little interested in this.

As opposed to a system however this is shaping up more likea private handicapping excercide if feel
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[princecap]

Cheers MoB, I did think it is too much data to look through, so I can completely understand your point. Realistically, I wouldn't expect you to carry out the tests on this, as they really do take time.

And I apologize if it seemed like I was 'showing off' my system; it really wasn't my intention. The initial question did focus on sharing of systems and perhaps should have been kept to that, but along the way, it spiralled into me actually mentioning the system here. I will post the tips for the next few days, perhaps here, just to see how the system is progressing.

Extensive testing is definitely required and lets see how things shape up!

Again, I apologise if I came out as arrogant or cocky, it was simply naivety and innocence on my part to consider it successful with such little sample size.
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Numbers and me, Its a love-hate relationship. I love them, they hate me!

[man o bong]

[princecap]

Cheers MoB..gotcha now!

Really appreciate your (and others reading it) patience regarding all this. Like you said, I guess most of us make these sort of mistakes in the beginning.
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Numbers and me, Its a love-hate relationship. I love them, they hate me!

[Betfairalfie]

My comments were probably a bit OTT but I do get annoyed when a newbie’s comes on here (lukegooner like ) and tells me they have found a Golden Egg after 1 days research. I’ve been looking for decades and I still haven’t moved to a Caribbean Mansion.

Prince – sorry for the rant - we were all new to gambling once and I have to say it’s a more level playing field now when battling the bookies. We can play in 105% books now when before it was 120% + 9% tax on winnings. So that’s a big plus.

I’d make sure you look at OLBG’s good training stuff like:

http://www.online-betting-guide.co.uk/school/

Look around the more general sections of the forum for other threads on systems and discipline.

PS - If I was starting gambling now I'd skip the punting nonsense and get to grips with trading. See FairFranco's forum blog.

Be Lucky

[princecap]

Alfie, thanks for the comments mate!

As I understand, your concerns are completely genuine and perhaps, if I was in your position, I would also be suspicious about a one-day wonder. I can even understand your reaction, but I think there was a bit of mis-understanding. When I said the system was commercially viable, what I really meant was that it was showing profit in the past 5 days (which by itself is neither a big sample, nor ample proof).

I shall read the OLBG training guides, and I have already read fairfranco's arbing blog, and it seems really profitable (yet slightly slow, no thrill as it were). Punting is far more thrilling

I would however request your continued patience, since even though I may not know much about horse racing or other important betting issues, I am quite adept at gauging the impact of various factors and have previously, successfully, made models for future prediction of an event based on its past occurrence, while at uni.

And no system without extensive testing can be deemed useful. I think today's results (no winners) clearly show that betting has its vagaries and unless long term profit is ascertained, a system can not be deemed success.

So I would request one and all to bear with me, while I try to perhaps produce something that might interest people here.
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Numbers and me, Its a love-hate relationship. I love them, they hate me!