Feedback required

JRD553 · Posted: Thu Apr 03, 2008 5:11 pm Post subject: Feedback required

Can i get you guys to give me some feedback on an idea i have been toying with trying, it's basically based on the multiscore idea but using doubles rather than singles to increase the odds using one result which i call 'the cert' (although i know nothing is guaranteed), for example...

On Betfair today, man u to beat middlesborough (which i'm using as my cert) was 1.46, the 2nd game i'll pick as blackburn vs spurs, which gives 3 double bets of...

Utd/Home = 3.1, Utd/Draw = 4.8, Utd/Away = 5.9

Which when i put into my trusty excel spreadsheet tells me that i can back all three results and still take a profit of about 45%, the idea is that as long as united do the business it doesn't matter the outcome of the 2nd game as all 3 options are covered???

Any thoughts or positive criticism on this would be greatly received guys? Confused

P.S. I apologise if this has been covered before or has already been discussed because i'm not on here alot.

SuperCat · Posted: Thu Apr 03, 2008 5:22 pm Post subject:

" that as long as united do the business "

That's the flaw as far as I can see.

Any conditional bet on another selection "doing the business" has it's risks.

You can't beat singles, I'm afraid, boring though that may sound.
_________________
I did rather well in the February 2008 tables!

wasimbutt2007 · Posted: Thu Apr 03, 2008 5:36 pm Post subject:

unsure about united, i think the midweek excursion to rome may take a bit out of them. They also traditionally struggle at the riverside. 3-1 boro downing scores first

JRD553 · Posted: Thu Apr 03, 2008 5:39 pm Post subject:

I can see your point Super but in a kinda way this is really a single bet because you really are only betting one result as the 2nd match is covered, and that's meant to be the beauty of it because the one you are betting on has the shortest odds or best chance of being right???

JRD553 · Posted: Thu Apr 03, 2008 5:42 pm Post subject:

Cheers wasim, i have since decided to go against united given the fact that vidic is out anyway, not mutch else out there (in the prem anyway), next best i can see is everton but they are without johnson and cahill (although in saying that, it is only derby they're playing, haha)

man o bong · Posted: Thu Apr 03, 2008 5:43 pm Post subject:

Hang on, i'm gonna get me calc out here, cos this doesnt add up at all.

In fact i dont think you would be able to place this bet at all, there is a long word for it, but a bet you cannot place because the direct result of one bet, directly affects the other.

Let me think now, you have £5 on "CERT" at evens (lest say for ease of use of figures.

This wins...

No i am certain you find anyone to take this bet. I am sure that there is a cse for interdependant bets here
_________________
NEW! Yard Targets, - Click here
12 Month Horse Racing Blogs Profit +102.2pts

Dammo Qwirky · Stallion Joined: 29 Oct 2004 Posts: 5959

on Betfair u can do wot u like mob, as itll effectively be 3 different doubles.
_________________
Positions now available in OLBG Lottery syndicate. 28 lines in each draw dramatically increases chances of a jackpot. Please PM me for info.

JRD553 · Posted: Thu Apr 03, 2008 6:02 pm Post subject:

Cheers for the comments gents, keep them coming...

MOB - I'm not even sure what a cse for interdependant bets is, haha?? But surely any bookies will let you place the 3 doubles, no?

thatsa donkey · Classic Winner Joined: 06 Jul 2005 Posts: 860

Hmm the problem that I can see with this bet is that if your worst odds scenario wins you would need a bucket load of cash on to make any actual worthwile winnings. At 3.1 for UTD/HOME by the time you had covered your 2 losing bets and had your stake returned you would be left with the 0.1 profit (less Commission if using Betfair) You could always use a proper dutching calculator and try and improve the total returns by adlusting the stakes but you still need to put on a large stake to make it worthwhile.

Thats if I have understood the bet correctly.

Donkey. Fingers Crossed

JRD553 · Posted: Thu Apr 03, 2008 6:22 pm Post subject:

I ain't no mathematician but the way this spreadsheet works it out is as follows donkey (based on a £20 stake)...

Utd/Home = 3.1 at stake of £9.21 = win £28.55

Utd/Draw = 4.8 at stake of £5.95 = win £28.55

Utd/Away = 5.9 at stake of £4.84 = win £28.55

Disregarding commission, either way is profit of £8.55 which is 42.75% of original stake??? Unless i'm missing something, haha

Dammo Qwirky · Stallion Joined: 29 Oct 2004 Posts: 5959

unless im missing summat ull make 46% profit on just man u winning!
_________________
Positions now available in OLBG Lottery syndicate. 28 lines in each draw dramatically increases chances of a jackpot. Please PM me for info.

JRD553 · Posted: Thu Apr 03, 2008 8:05 pm Post subject:

And there's the flaw, haha, cheers guys, back to the drawing board for me...