Total Nightmare!

SuperCat · Posted: Mon Apr 14, 2008 11:17 am Post subject: Total Nightmare!

After 2 fantastic months where I have been trying out a new system with fantastic results I'm having an absolute mare in April.

I can't see that I'm doing anything different - I'm using the same selection criteria - yet as of 14/4/08 I'm -£2200 and in real trouble.

I don't want to divulge my system, (not because I'm being secretive, but because it's VERY complicated and would bore you to tears, and in any case it would take me half a day to type it out), but am now wondering if my results for February/March were just a fluke.

Just a bit shell-shocked to be honest, not sure if I should persevere with it or just abandon ship. Phew

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I did rather well in the February 2008 tables!

thatsa donkey · Classic Winner Joined: 06 Jul 2005 Posts: 663

Supercat,

Can you just give us some general idea of what the system is betting or laying on, e.g horse racing NH/Flat/AW, football, tennis, cricket.

Sadly all systems have ups and downs, a good system should make a profit over the long term and be able to ride out the bad patches.

Donkey. Fingers Crossed

(edit) SuperCat I have just been and checked your tips history and Football. Now I ain't an expert on the subject as I have only been looking at football betting for about 18 months and I am sure someone on here will a wealth of greater knowledge than me on this subject and will be able to help you out. But I seem to remember that around this time last year the same thing happened to me the last six weeks of the season threw up some really strange results, that went totally against what the form would suggest. I think that clubs and players have different motivations when the season is pretty much decided.

I am sure you will get better answers and as always I can only give my humble opinion.

Donkey.

SuperCat · Posted: Mon Apr 14, 2008 11:31 am Post subject:

In a very small nutshell, it's backing only, football only, and involves intense monitoring of markets and backing teams where their odds are expected to contract rapidly. It's the process where I work out which those teams are that I can't divulge.

Note however the use of the word "expected" though - not 100% of the teams I tip do actually behave in the way I predict. All I can say is that it's not guesswork - it's use of a particular set of complicated "rules" that indicate the start of a price contraction, the theory being that if a price is about to contract there must be a good reason to tip/back that particular team.

Sorry if it all sounds a bit abstract! Smile

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I did rather well in the February 2008 tables!

princecap · Group 1 Class Joined: 02 Feb 2008 Posts: 485

I have to agree with Donkey and say that during this time of the year, m,any unexpected results are thrown up, with lower league teams punching above their belts; good teams (like Arsenal) getting tired and losing motivation. I would consider it a blip, so suggest riding it out.

However, like Donkey also mentioned, good systems should be able to ride out the bad months and still be in profit; so without scraping the whole system, I would suggest perhaps working on staking plan/alternate system with some adjustments, which perhaps consider only more stronger of the bets in end of season months.

Hope this helps!

P.S: I am having some unexpected results in footie too, and for some reason, in horse racing as well. Apparently, April is expected transitional month in Horse racing; and from experience, I know that its the same around Christmas and this time of the year. It has a lot to do with mince pies and motivation factors respectively.

Wink

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sergeant_cecil · Group 3 Class Joined: 11 Feb 2008 Posts: 55

Supercat

I find it quite astounding that you're considering scrapping a system that showed £48,000 profit in February, £10,000 in March, just because it's £2,200 in deficit this month ????

All of us would love a system that returns those types of profit.

I've been running my own systems for nearly 3 years, and I still don't believe that's long enough, so three months is absolutely nothing.

You need to perservere, accumulate more records, and take advantage of seasonal changes to results.

Good Luck

SuperCat · Posted: Mon Apr 14, 2008 1:42 pm Post subject:

Thanks for your replies.

I think my quandry is because I have not been -£2,200 (or anything like it) at any point in the last 2 months. Of course, my bank is now zero except for the £100 that you get when you are in that unfortunate position. This means that getting back in profit is now going to be a tall order for this month.

You have also got me thinking about staking plans. On Sunday my bank was marginally in profit and I tipped 3 matches, using the entire contents. Such was the level of my confidence.

All bets lost, and the bank contents of course contributed to my monthly loss. If I had been more conservative, I would still have funds to play with.

Yes, I think my staking needs looking at. Thanks for the pointer in the right direction. I now just need to work out a "system" to regulate my stakes!
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I did rather well in the February 2008 tables!

Online Trader · Posted: Mon Apr 14, 2008 1:59 pm Post subject:

Supercat

Also worth saving up for a few days at £100 a day it soon adds up and it means that you can have a larger bet on a result that you strongly fancy.
I was 3.5K down last month and only just failed to get back into profit on the last day (Spurs did for me Mad

), I did this by not betting everyday and saving up for some larger bets.
I would certainly stick with it as your first 2 months are very impressive Win

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SuperCat · Posted: Mon Apr 14, 2008 2:33 pm Post subject:

I didn't realise you could save up your £100's! Thought your balance had to be zero!

Oh well, I've comitted today's to Sheff Wed - I'll have a look tomorrow - if I don't see anything I'll save it.

Trouble is, I WILL see something that fits my criteria!

Decisions, decisions. Very Happy

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I did rather well in the February 2008 tables!

strick206 · Group 2 Class Joined: 11 Dec 2007 Posts: 133

It's because of the end of season matches, lots of priorities change, throwing up suprise results

Keep at it if it was so profitable in the last 2 months

Next season it will be back on form again

SuperCat · Posted: Mon Apr 14, 2008 6:29 pm Post subject:

The thing is, I'm now actually backing my tips on Betfair.

Factored down I might add. £1000 to start with on here, £100 in Betfair.

If I tip on here for £400, I back on BF for £40.

Wish I'd been doing that in February and March now! Laughing

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I did rather well in the February 2008 tables!

SuperCat · Posted: Tue Apr 15, 2008 9:52 am Post subject:

..........and Sheffield Wednesday let me down. Crying or Very sad

But I did Lay Chelsea in running last night at 1.1. Win

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I did rather well in the February 2008 tables!

SuperCat · Posted: Wed Apr 16, 2008 11:27 am Post subject:

UPDATE:-

I reloaded my £100 starting monthly balance in Betfair, and had some bets last night, restricting my stake to 5% of bank, (£5).

9 winners from 13 bets.

Wycombe
Bristol Rovers
Oxford
Hull
Werder Bremen
Gueugnon
Reims
Amiens
Kaiserslauten

+ 4 losers

Thanks for the encouragement on here from you all. OK, so I screwed up one day on here, and I'm very unlikely to make a "virtual" OLBG profit this month - but I can still play to small stakes on Betfair and try and accumulate a monthly profit. Win

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I did rather well in the February 2008 tables!

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