Total Nightmare!

[pidger]

Is this a bigger picture issue here buddy???

2 good months and 1 bad doesnt make a bad system.

I find i do this all the time with horse systems, i'll chop them after 1 days bad results.

Have faith

[SuperCat]

Absolutely.

Take Sunday - I had largish virtual stakes on just 3 selections.

Now, just imagine the 13 teams I tipped yesterday had been playing on Sunday - who is to say that the 3 that I happened to pick would be 3 of the 4 losers from yesterday?

Yes, I 've learnt some valuable lessons this week:-

1. Everyone has a bad day once in a while!

2. Stake management is a s important as finding winners.

3. If you see several possible winners, back them all to low stakes instead of narrowing them down yourself and picking the wrong ones to discard.

And all thanks to OLBG for letting me experiment on here.........
_________________
I did rather well in the February 2008 tables!

[Roger Green]

Supercat, over 30 years and I get losing runs, everyone does!..You must look at the long term picture always and record all your bets...if your system has produced good reults in the past, it should in the future.Good Luck

[Betfairalfie]

Its not clear to me what your strategy is, but ask yourself why it has worked. It certainly worked in Feb/Mar. But less than 1% of people on here make consistent profits, why do you think your system achieves this level.

I'd certainly be cautious about chucking more money at it in case its just a case it was just a "lucky run". My cautiousness is based on years of experience including 3 attempts at making the game pay by punting alone.

Football punting is a wicked mistress.

Why not paper trade (and OLBG back) until the season ends to get a wider perspective on whether you've discovered the Holy Grail or just been on a lucky run?

[SuperCat]

I hear what you're saying Alfie, but there are practical problems.

The problem on OLBG is that now I've blown my bank I'm limited to 2 x £50 tips a day maximum, whereas even on a quiet day my system usually throws up AT LEAST 6 or 8 selections. At weekends it goes into overdrive! The lack of virtual funds on here therefore forces me to make a subjective choice on which selections to discard.

Now I've sorted out a rudimentary staking plan, (5% of bank), my reload of £100 on Betfair has turned into £275 in jjust 3 days. I'm only playing small stakes, it's not going to kill me if it goes wrong.

The more I look at it, my "Black Sunday" was caused by a combination of poor staking decisions and good old bad luck that the 3 selections I narrowed it down to ended up losing, whereas if I had spread my stake over all selections I would have made a profit on that day, albeit a small one.

As I say, valuable lessons learnt!
_________________
I did rather well in the February 2008 tables!