Odds % Question

edmondsj · Group 2 Class Joined: 29 Dec 2006 Posts: 103

I'm reading dave nevisons book and he says he looks to bet on horses who odds are 15% better than he has in his tissue

Could someone explain if i had a horse at 2.00 what would i be looking for at the bookies and the calcualtion you use.

is this correct or total rubbish!!!!??

2.00 is 50% overround

15% of 50 = 7.5%

50 - 7.5 = 42.5%

42.5 % = odds of 2.35 (price i would at least be looking for)

turfline · Posted: Mon Apr 21, 2008 10:03 pm Post subject:

Its Value that you are looking for, if you price up a race and you think there is value to be had and you evaluate the chances of the selection and that has every chance of making the frame and most are offering 3/1 and your tissue was 5/2 you have value on your tissue.
The percentage part is a fexible guide

michael1 · 2yo Joined: 05 Jun 2008 Posts: 1

New to this,had an ew bet on Mike Weir in Memorial open 40/1.4th the odds first 4.weir finished joint 2nd with 3 others,could someone tell me what odds i should receive,thank you

Betfairalfie · Stallion Joined: 01 Mar 2005 Posts: 5044

turfline - why not help the guy out with a straight answer Rolleyes (Sarcasm)

michael - I have never read nevison but if he is talking about your perceived chance of it winning 50% compared to the bookies perception 42.5% then your right. 2.35 = 42.5% chance of winning.

Your right to be pursuing value. I wouldn't get to hung up on the maths as you will need to press calculator buttons when you should be punting Smile

But if your perception of value is good long-term then taking 2.35 when it should be 2.0 will see you in profit, as would 2.20, as would backing to place, as would in-play trading. But don't let anyone convince you its easy to get it right long-term.

Dead heat rules? I am sure you'll get a straight answer on that one from someone else shortly.

gecko6 · At Stud Read My Blog! Joined: 20 Oct 2006 Posts: 3806

michael1 > joint 2nd with 3 others means they filled places 2,3,4,5

if e/w odds were for the top 4 then it's a simple %age

eg places 2,3,4 = 3
selections 2,3,4,5 = 4

so 3/4 = 75% of the bet will pay out

your bet was e/w at 40/1

the win bet loses but the place bet will pay out (presuming quarter odds) at 10/1 > you then have to multiply that by 75% as there were 4 sharing the 3 places... thus true odds of 7.5/1 is your return, plus your place stake

NB if your selection was 4th with 1 other, then the calculation would be 4th = 1 place, selections = 2 so the payout would be 1/2 or 50% for that place

regards