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| PERM OR NOT TO PERM? |
| YES |
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37% |
[ 3 ] |
| NO |
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62% |
[ 5 ] |
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| Total Votes : 8 |
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| Author |
Message |
man o bong
At Stud
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Joined: 13 Aug 2005
Posts: 4679
Location: Valley of the race-horse
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 Posted: Fri May 16, 2008 3:42 pm Post subject: |
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"Perm" is of course short for Permutation
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Antony OLBG
Stallion
Joined: 26 Mar 2003
Posts: 5697
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| Posted: Fri May 16, 2008 3:47 pm Post subject: |
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| AH I was thinking this was a discussion of footballers hair doos |
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billybob
Listed Class
Joined: 12 May 2008
Posts: 48
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| Posted: Fri May 16, 2008 6:49 pm Post subject: |
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| id rather wear a wig coz at least ill be able to take it off.if its a proper perm itll take atleast a week possibly two for your hair to straighten out a wig is defernetly the way to go unless youve got some hair straightners you could get a perm then if it looked a bit silly then use the old straightners to put it back to normal |
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man o bong
At Stud
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| Posted: Fri May 16, 2008 9:01 pm Post subject: |
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Trader, my personal point of view is well known and documented and whilst there can be a little more argument for permutation of football bets up to an absolute maximum of a treble, i still firmly believe that if long term profits are to be realised, single bets in all sports is the way to go.
Of course these specialised perm bets such as Lucky 15's, yankees, super yankees, canadians, lucky63's. goliaths and so the list go on, were designed by the bookie for the bookie.
Yes you can get a very very good return should you "have it off", but in the long run you'll "have it off" far less often than when your backing singles.
Just take a full perm on 4 selections, if including singles you have 15 bets, if just one selection loses and three win, although you may still make a profit, (i dont the actual answer but i think you wuold still need something in the region of average 2/1 shots for the winners to dothis), you will have lost on 8 bets before the next selection is considered.
The scenario gets worse and worse the more selections you have,
the lucky 63 for instance becomes a Lucky 15 the moment you have a loser. 48 bets down the drain for one loser and only 15 left!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
The bookies love these perms.
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spider2097
Triple Crown Winner
Joined: 06 Jul 2007
Posts: 1355
Location: Bromborough, UK
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| Posted: Sat May 17, 2008 1:47 am Post subject: |
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| Quote: |
| Just take a full perm on 4 selections, if including singles you have 15 bets, if just one selection loses and three win, although you may still make a profit, (i dont the actual answer but i think you wuold still need something in the region of average 2/1 shots for the winners to dothis), you will have lost on 8 bets before the next selection is considered. |
Personally, I like Lucky 15's - but you are correct, minimum odds are required to break even. You can get away with evens (2.00) & turn a profit if one fails to come in. You can get away with an odds-on shot in there but I can't be bothered to work that out & wouldn't recommend it anyway.
4 selections at evens with 1 failing to win gives you 1 treble @ 8.00, 3 doubles (each @ 4.00) & 3 singles (each @ 2.00) Thus, your stake of 15 units would return 26 units. However, with two losing selections this would only return 8 units - 2 singles & 1 double.
I never perm larger than a Lucky 15 and to be honest have usually stuck with Patent's of late. One of the things that has to be remembered with these perms is that you do have to be confident in your selections & (even more than with singles) not be too upset if one doesn't come in.
Be careful with your stake - you're necessarily scaling down your singles stakes due to the volume of bets that you're placing, which means that to make the profit you are relying on having multiple successful selections.
A £0.10 Lucky 15 can give an amazing return (based on the individual odds) for your £1.50 total stake but are your selections that solid?
There's a section in my current blog where I look at returns from my Lucky 15's & compare them to if I had put the total stake on my strongest selection as a single. Perhaps surprisingly, putting the total stake on the single would have returned better than my Lucky 15 did - but only just & to be fair I was experimenting with purposefully selecting "void" selections as part of the Lucky 15.
I have to admit, I'm a little confused by the opening post - parts of it seem contradictory, surely if you want to avoid losing too much just stick with level stakes singles. If your selections are solid then one or two unsuccessful choices will be more than made up for by your successful choices - but then again it would come down to the prices of your selections.
Rather than considering perms, look at the prices of your bets - make a decision not to place a bet lower than a set price, what that price should be is not something I'm willing to put my thoughts towards as that should be your own choice. Then when you're confident about being able to pick winning choices at bigger prices than your own minimum, you can start thinking about perms.
I apologise if this is "old ground" or comes across patronisingly, that's not my intent. However, comments such as :
| Quote: |
obviously not a serious subject on here
probably explains why the majority are at a loss over the season or break even at best |
by the thread starter do not help.
I, for one, do think it's important - but it must be realised that full coverage bets are not for everyone & people have to get to grips with actually betting first before bamboozling them with full coverage bets. As I mention several times in my blog, I do not advocate people followed me in doing Lucky 15's (with or without following my selections) & that perm betting does not suit everyone.
Without question my biggest success has come from a Lucky 15 where I managed to get 3 correct selections, but my greatest satisfaction came from my first 100% Lucky 15 - which only happened a couple of months ago despite doing (almost only) Lucky 15's for over 3 years.
As I've mentioned already, these days I've scaled down a bit & usually stick with singles for the majority of my betting but I am prone to the odd Patent or Lucky 15 still.
Edit - I'm not voting in the poll for reasons that hopefully can be seen in my post.
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manafana
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Joined: 09 Apr 2005
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spider2097
Triple Crown Winner
Joined: 06 Jul 2007
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| Posted: Sat May 17, 2008 12:22 pm Post subject: |
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| Quote: |
| the lucky 63 for instance becomes a Lucky 15 the moment you have a loser. 48 bets down the drain for one loser and only 15 left!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! |
With 1 losing selection, a Lucky 63 becomes a Lucky 31. Then a Lucky 31 becomes a Lucky 15 with 1 losing selection, Lucky 15 becomes a Patent... A Lucky 63 becomes a Lucky 15 if two of your selections lose.
However, it is worth bearing in mind the amount of lost bets (and therefore stake units) per losing selection in a full coverage bet - it's always at least 50% of the number of bets and usually a factor of four.
Bet Type : No. bets : with 1 losing : 2 Losing : 3 Losing
Patent : 7 : 3 : 1 : 0
Lucky 15 : 15 : 7 : 3 : 1
Lucky 31 : 31 : 15 : 7 : 3
Lucky 63 : 63 : 31 : 15 : 7
With 1 losing selection, the amount of bets lost = 2 to the power of (number of selections -1).
These full coverage bets are a bit more useful in Horse Racing than other sports due to the prices available & potential outcomes - it's more likely that a 15/1 horse will win compared to a 15/1 bet on a football match, and one 15/1 shot is all that's needed to not lose money on a Lucky 15. Again, it all comes down to the prices of your selections.
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