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nors
Triple Crown Winner
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Joined: 01 Aug 2006
Posts: 1211
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 Posted: Tue Jul 08, 2008 2:40 pm Post subject: |
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Hi maschools and welcome to OLBG. You'll find loads of good people on here with a wealth of betting and sporting knowledge only too willing to help.
I would say the more you study, watch and listen the more you will win. There are members on here who have been betting since the year dot and they still ask themselves the same questions as you.
Take a look at the Betting School and if it is Horse Racing you are interested in there are some great brains on the horse racing forum.
As for your specific question about big prices, the bookmakers set the prices and they are there to make money for their shareholders and not to give us any clues. Generally they want the shorter priced horses beaten. If all favourites won they would be out of business.
http://www.online-betting-guide.co.uk/school/ |
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man o bong
Stallion
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Joined: 13 Aug 2005
Posts: 5004
Location: Valley of the race-horse
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| Posted: Wed Jul 09, 2008 2:46 am Post subject: |
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| could it be that I have missed something in the information that is available |
That would pretty much sum it up!
It is worth taking the time to run through the previous weeks results. Check the winners all time form on the Racing post site perhaps.
You will be amazed how many times you will find a snippet of form, which may be actually quite old, that will coincide with the conditions under which its win has been achived. Sometimes you will find a runner takes two years to suddenly find all conditions that match its last win. Then BINGO, you got yourself a nice big priced winner.
This year alone i have had several winners ranging up to 50/1 that have this type of profile.
I firstly look at the last 14 runs in form, (if run that many times and if available), no matter how far they go back. I will look even furthyer however, and will particularly take note of any course form, if it is even older.
In fact instead of me trying to explain it here, it may be better to go to the OLBG bookstore and pick up a copy of a book called "The Tail End System", whilst i dont think the book is all that good, it will explain what i am trying to here, in a far more concise manner.
Good luck.
Oh and the final tip, (the most important one i promise)
If you fancy something at 12, 14 16, 25, 33 or even 100/1 to win.
DONT LOWER YOUR STAKE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
This is a common, one of the most common mistakes that people can make when having a bet.
You know you have probably done it yourself in the past and had a fraction of the stake on a 20/1 shot that you would have had if the market had your fancy down as favourite. THINK HOW MUCH IT WILL COST YOU IF IT WINS.
Also, dont forget that the prices you see are just an interpretation of the likelood of a certain outcome devised by someone else (human), just like yourself. WHOS TO SAY THEY ARE RIGHT AND YOU ARE WRONG!!!
TRUST YOURSELF 
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