why do we have bad runs?!!!(Gambling ones only please)!

giggsy · Listed Class Joined: 28 Jul 2007 Posts: 34

Hello,

I want to start this thread for my own help!

for 2months straight I was winning average of £80 a day 6 day week
(needed day off)!!
I was basicaly depositing £100 a day nearly back into my account.
This was with mainly Maidens, sellers(non-handicap) and very odd time a handicap if the odds were woth it.(but hardly ever do Handicaps)
It looked like I could earn a living from this! (wow I thought..stupidly)

Now for the last 2 weeks staying to same system, same type of races
I couldn't pick a winner ever. I have lost £600 pounds am still
up £800 ish (these a very ruff fiqures).

I have maybe worked out the Fillies are gaining on the colts maybe?
I had put into account the weather change too.(Heavy to Firm lately)

A run of "bad luck" happens......but my question is.....WHY??!! Confused

What do we gamblers miss?

Good luck everyone Win

Dammo Qwirky · Stallion Joined: 29 Oct 2004 Posts: 5920

wouldnt know too much about the horse side of things, but other aspects it may be...

luck evening out.

a bad run.

uve altered yer selection technique as a result of the bad run.

negative mindset influencing yer results.
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giggsy · Listed Class Joined: 28 Jul 2007 Posts: 34

Definetly got negative mind set after the bad run!

Have stayed to same system (as was winning one before!)

Maybe its an arrogance thing, have tried taking a break, as you
believe your invincible when on a really good run!

But again have stuck to same system, as have learnt from the past.

Maybe with horses things change during the season, as said Fillies
catch up with the colts that are stronger earlier in the year.

Thanks for your reply/help Win

Betfairalfie · Stallion Joined: 01 Mar 2005 Posts: 5052

If you punt, bad runs are inevitable - e.g. 48 consecutive losing Favs in uk horse racing a few years ago.

What can you do? Revise your strategies, pray, kick the cat, praise yourself that at least good discipline minimised the loss OR curse yourself that you had no discipline and it made things worse. But its wisest to treat is as a learning experience.

Most punters think they can beat a 105% book long-term because they have a SYSTEM that works, but often these back fire badly as the statistical freaks you've been following even themselves out.

Long-term answer in my view - Trade don't punt. Use realistic targets and consistently beat them.

PS - Be Lucky Smile

giggsy · Listed Class Joined: 28 Jul 2007 Posts: 34

Funny you should mention "trading"

I tried for the first time today after some practise, Lay betting on Betfair
(Here we go, gamblers anks!!)

With Lay betting I practised picked 7 correct bets on a trott(see blog!)
then tried it in real life for first time and of course the horse won
when I layed it to lose, lost more money! ugg!! Crying or Very sad

(now this not trading I know)
But wanted to work out a Lay bet (in real life) then after few tries
Lay the bet and then see if I could lump on it it WIN with another
bookies, so say:-

bet £300 to lose (Lay bet)
bet £50 on same horse to win (if odds add up!)
To say win £30 pounds (I know these figures don't add up,but you get my drift?)...armitrage type bet...(sorry cant pell)
(Is this what u mean by trading?) Confused

Anyways tried something diff instead of trying to win £100 in one hit
(£100 pound on eve or 4/6 is my usual thing) with odd 9/4 handicap

As you mentioned favourites don't always win!!!! (even with best form,going,jockey,trainer etc..)

Thanks again!!! Win

rounder · Posted: Thu Nov 01, 2007 11:09 am Post subject:

I believe there can't be any good system anywhere for betting the races that you chose. You say you are betting mainly on maidens and sellers. Maiden races are races that no horse involved has ever won before and alot have never raced or are very inexpirenced. Sellers are aces that the winning horse is sold off. The main reason I can see horses going into such races is cos the current owner doesnt hugely rate it, doesnt breed confidence in the market.

Stick with the handicappers, do your homework and you will be fine.

qhstatistics · Group 2 Class Joined: 13 Jul 2007 Posts: 183

Dont right your system off just yet, remember we are changing between the flast and the jumps, give it time and be patient, no system wins all of the time but seek long term profits.
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SK1PPY · Listed Class Joined: 21 Dec 2007 Posts: 25 Location: Essex

I agree wit the last 2 posts, I think everyone goes through bad patches, myself I just Lay greyhounds especially a my track Romford and all BAGS meetings.

I once had a run of laying 29 losers on the BAGS and then the next day I layed 5 winners ut of 7.

I do look more long term to know with myself laying and not chasing any loses over a period of time it's me who is the winner!