DISCIPLINE & STAKING PLANS

[Betfairalfie]

I saw that a thread had been opened for Systems, but Discipline and Staking Plans are as important in my view. If you want to share the secrets of your success or the pain of your failure then post below.

1. Start by working out what is your betting target?
If you are betting for a hobby then your target might be to lose no more than 10% of your wages per month. You've have set aside a certain percent of your disposable income for your hobby, fine. The rest of this post will probably not be of interest to you.

There are others who want to give up the daily grind and make money from sports betting. Difficult but it can be done with discipline and a good staking plan and a sprinkling of good fortune from The Gambling Gods.

A good target is 3% profit on your bank per day. If achieved then your bank doubles every 24 days.

2. Strategies
See other thread, in case anyone reveals a good un with proven P/L figures. Or, perhaps they won't If you had a goose that layed golden eggs you would probably keep it to yourself. www.adrianmassey.com Fate of Favourites is worthy of a look. I would also point out that NO ONE has ever proved to me they can make long-term profits through taking a view and sticking with it, most money makers include an element of trading in their strategy. Tell me if I am wrong, but include stats please. Best to dummy run 5 or so strategies that you think might work and pick the best from those.

3. Discipline
What has helped me in the past;

- recording all bets. Regularly review performance, and improve.

- an excel sheet developed over the years. Automatically calculates max risk per bet/trade, calcluates profit/commi$$ion, diverts 40% of any winning bet into a seperate (protected) bank, has an overview stats section (so I know that the required strike rate/% return is being achieved), and a cute graph with target/actual lines.

- openness with the wife/girlfriend or both. I have found it helps but understand others wouldn't dream of doing it.

- be very selective. Yesterday on OLBG I picked one horse per race but on Betfair I had one bet. An unusually quiet day though, on Saturday I had 6. Find out what works for you and stick with it. I very rarely bet on football. I love the game but can't make it pay, so its dropped.

-OLBG is a god-send for the poor discipline punter. Use it to exorcise your gambling demons. OLBG is for Fun, Betfair is for Real.

Staking Plans
Depends on your strategy. I wouldn't risk more than 20% of my betting bank on any trade (in case Betfair crashes) or more than 3% on a punt (back or Lay). If you want to stay solvent then avoid the Martingale method of doubling up until a favourite wins - longest losing run, March 2005 was 48 consecutive losers. Sh1t happens

Anyone care to add their own suggestions?

[aye66]

yes it's time we need a thread like this again, just to remind ourselves that no one is a tipping god and everyone goes through some bad spells. Some things that i've learnt the hard way.. and i did learn a lot of things the hard way lol! Some v easy pointers that can never be over-emphasised.

1. Bet only what you can afford to lose and set your monthly bank.
at the start of the month, set aside some money for gambling and stick to it. This money is your gambling bank for the whole month.

2. Set a profit target.
You need to give yourself a goal to attain. This is true for any "real job". If you have no goals, you could find yourself betting aimlessly for most of the month, and finding out that you are in the red because of a few bets which you shouldn't have made. So the profit target is a good exercise to help you focus. You know what you need to achieve and you know you have a month to achieve it. simple!

3. set a realistic and useful profit target.
if your bank is £500, it's a bit foolhardy to set a profit target of £10000 a month. Find some use for your profit target. If you have no idea on how to spend the money, chances are, you will gamble your winnings away cause you don't feel the pain. A good example is maybe to use your rent or some monthly installment for a piece of kit as your profit target if you are a bloke (maybe new jimmy choo shoes if you're a lass.. i dunno. lol!). That way, you'll force yourself to acknowledge the usefulness of your winnings and to bank it each month. A realistic monthly average profit target is probably 3 times of the bank. Less if you are a conservative punter, more if you are really good (e.g. coopsy in footy idol). Both factors are equally important.. realistic, and useful. some peeps work by daily profit targets... I would avoid that... just use a monthly one so that you won't be pressured to make bets everyday or week.

4. Start gently at the start of the month and have patience.
You have the entire month to gamble... so be patient and don't try to take a shortcut to fast profit. Seriously, you can be taught how to gamble, taught every trick/system in the book, know all your horses/footy teams, but patience is something that can't be taught to you. If you don't have patience/discipline in gambling, you halfway on the road to ruin. You can either learn it the easy way or the hard way.. it's up to you. I learnt it years ago the hard way. Always start the month of with a win... if that means conservative betting (e.g. hedging, arbing etc.) so be it. It makes life so much simpler to know that you are up str away. Know what events which are of interest a few days ahead, i.e. planning ahead. This allows you to save some of your bank for those opportunities.

5. ease off when you have reached your profit target.
I personally try to reach my profit targets by the 20th of the month so i can ease off for the rest of the month. So if you have reached your profit target, remember, you earned it. The money is there for you to take it! that's next month's rent, installment for the plasma telly, installment for your pension, council tax payment etc. Think abt it... would it be worth to increase your stakes, or to know that you have some bills sorted out then and there? It's up to you. Besides, when you have reached your profit target and beyond, gambling becomes more leisurely and less stressful knowing that you have achieved your aim. lol, you can even do all those crazy accumulators you dreamt of in your sleep as a fun bet, just to maintain interest and to track the forms of teams/horses. If you still have an itch, then plan your final push into top spot on the OLBG tipping comp and bet with OLBG money... or for blokes, think more abt certain nocturnal activities.

6. keep records of your bets.
this helps you fine tune your betting and also helps you evaluate your staking plan. Also, you need to know in an instant the amount you are up or down for the month.

that's my personal method, and hopefully it'll be of some help to you.

cheers,
aye66

[Antony OLBG]

A summary of the key points from the OLBG Good Gambling Guide

Good Practices
1. Research your bets
2. Set budgets for how much you can gamble
3. Set a daily Stop loss
4. Set a daily Stop Win
5. Take a break from time to time

Bad Practices
1. Chasing losses
2. Changing your staking plans
3. Betting on things you don't understand
4. Being Greedy
5. Betting at bad odds
6. Betting money you cant afford to lose