Let OLBG Cure your Blues

SamTummo · Posted: Fri Dec 30, 2005 9:20 pm Post subject: Let OLBG Cure your Blues

Hey All

Just a quick note in the Gambling Help Forum.

I was reading the discipline & staking plans sticky thread posted by alfie - which you all should read as it has some great advice from alfie, aye66 and the OLBG King Anthony!

However I am probably in the small minority who...

Turfway Lass · Listed Class Joined: 09 Feb 2006 Posts: 27

Hi..me too bet small.. I like this forum as it's a buzz to tip..costs nothing in defeat..I shall be staying for a while Smile

number 1 bet · Triple Crown Winner Joined: 18 Mar 2005 Posts: 1442

i tell u guys summat...

i did have gambling problem like i was gambling away to get rid of depression and run away from my personal problems.

But after counselling with my personal problems, i gradually saw gambling as fun thing now and dont bet everyday now, just when i can afford it like the odd 5 in any bookies!!

But i still do pound treble everyday on horses though, some u win and some u lose.

so that why i use this site everyday as it cost me nothing really, just harmless fun. I do know everyone will have an addiction and it hard to get rid of it.

some people maybe addicted like

sex
chocolate
fags
rubber fetish
shoes fetish
clothes
dame edna savage pictures!!

i tell u my strange addiction which is crisps, i love eating any crisps cos of the crunchiness!! but i can control it to one a day now before is was like 4/5 a day!!

Betfairalfie · Stallion Joined: 01 Mar 2005 Posts: 5044

A big thumbs up for OLBG and their front page news item of "OLBG Supports Responsible Gambling Awareness Day"

Win

doc2008 · Group 2 Class Joined: 28 Jan 2008 Posts: 111

can't make a new post as a newbie so just will post here!

One of my best friends has been saving for 18 months not spending much from his part time job as he was saving up for a car! He has got £5000 now but got sacked there few weeks ago. Anyway the car he wants is £6200 and the owner wants the money in by this friday if he wants the car and he has this mad idea in his head to put

£5000 on Brazil/Draw Double chance at odds of 1/5 (Against Rep Ireland)

He can't afford to lose 5 grand well no one can but if he does it will leave him with nothing. I think he is being really stupid, but he wont listen to me at all.

Any advice on what to make him not do it or should I just let him go for it because say if he does back out of it because what I say and the bet wins then he will probably blame me! Dunno what to do for the best.

I do think his bet has a great chance of winning but dont think its worth that big of risk.

The worry I have is if he losses what is he going to do?

Any advice would be great? Would a bookie every take that bet?

Thanks

Roger Green · Posted: Tue Feb 05, 2008 8:50 pm Post subject:

Apart from being incredibly stupid, your friend is not getting a value bet in any event....he may well have predicted the correct outcome.....but only a fool would make such a bet...never bet what you cannot afford to lose!!!

man o bong · Posted: Tue Feb 05, 2008 9:08 pm Post subject:

I've got a really simple answer to the question.

BUY A CHEAPER CAR!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Its not like there is not much choice. And besides, if he's just been sacked, he will be able to do without getting a car right now anyway,
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Antony OLBG · Stallion Read My Blog! Joined: 26 Mar 2003 Posts: 5882

Its a friendly isnt it

So neither team really cares that much about the result, a good opportunity to experiment with players and systems etc. The Brazilians could be just treating this a as a jolly in Dublin for all we know.

Id not risk a tenner on it frankly but the more important points are made above in that you just should NEVER bet what you cant afford to lose no matter what the better.

It may seem like its possible to pick a sure thing at very low odds but that is not true. If it was Id do it. Id start with 1000 and increase it by 20% every week until it was worth several million.

doc2008 · Group 2 Class Joined: 28 Jan 2008 Posts: 111

Thanks for all your view!

I agree with everything said but he just sees it as a easy £1000! Meeting him tomorrow for few drinks and going tell him to maybe reduce the stake by good bit because at least if he loses he has some to fall back on!

Yeah it's a friendly but they way Ireland are at the minute without a manager and choas in the camp with players retiring weekly, you would nearly expect San Mariino to beat them lol!

Will tell you tomorrow anyway if he puts it on or not! Chances are the bookies might not take 5000 anyway

man o bong · Posted: Tue Feb 05, 2008 11:10 pm Post subject:

Good luck Doc, whatever he decides to do. Wink

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Antony OLBG · Stallion Read My Blog! Joined: 26 Mar 2003 Posts: 5882

Ok try another approach

How much research has he done. Does he know the likley Brazil starting 11. Has he read press artciles on their attitudes to this game.

Are there potentially new irish players playing for whom this is their big chance to play for the team and are going to be really up for it to try to establish a place.

Dont get me wrong statistically the bet will probably win - Id say 70% chance anyway so more likley than not, but even if the 1/5 was fair odds (which it never is with the bookies) then that theres a 1 in 6 (17%) chance that he will lose everything!

So basically its the same as a roll of the dice. Pick a number. Roll the dice. If that number comes up then you lose 5k. Any other number you win £1k. Do it a few times and see how frequently you lose the lot - its not that remote a possibility at all.

Let us know how you get on Smile

Betfairalfie · Stallion Joined: 01 Mar 2005 Posts: 5044

Risking 5k on a friendly Confused

Its a no brainer really. Its madness Lose

Rep Ireland are being supported and their price is coming in slightly. They are 5.00 to Lay on BF, equivelant to 1.24 for the draw/Brazil double chance after 5% commission deduction.

So backing @1.20 is not even best value.