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spider2097
Triple Crown Winner
Joined: 06 Jul 2007
Posts: 1308
Location: Bromborough, UK
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 Posted: Mon Jul 23, 2007 8:24 pm Post subject: sPidER's betting blog.... |
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Hey all!
Right, am thinking that if I keep a note of my bets I'll be able to see where my money goes 
Have mainly been squandering my "wealth" on baseball & footy but am always able to throw my dosh on other exploits (not usually to much good however!).
And so, to paraphrase a dodgy TV show : "Tonight Matthew, I'm betting on baseball".
(only because my footy bet has been and gone down the tubes)
I welcome comments by people reading with help, thoughts and general chat!
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How much wood would a woodchuck chuck if a woodchuck could chuck wood?
http://www.online-betting-guide.co.uk/forum/viewtopic.php?f=31&t=14998&postdays=0&postorder=asc&start=48
"Viva los Bio-Dome!!"
November 2007 Premiership Challenge Winner
Last edited by spider2097 on Tue Sep 18, 2007 12:11 am; edited 1 time in total |
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spider2097
Triple Crown Winner
Joined: 06 Jul 2007
Posts: 1308
Location: Bromborough, UK
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| Posted: Mon Jul 23, 2007 8:40 pm Post subject: |
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OK, as promised...my baseball "hints" or however you'd like to term them...
But first, an explanation...
I've created a spreadsheet (the sheet) that I use to collate odds from 5 different bookies. I also find some form of confidence value, the more the better. The most usual sources for this are the MLB website, ESPN's baseball site and various websites for baseball.
This allows me to come up with an average bet value based upon the Kelly Criterion. Now, as this shows, this value is NOT supposed to be a prediction rather a tool to help make a decision on where to put money in betting terms.
There's no point in putting bad value bets on!
In my posts on the MLB thread, I only post the Top 5 in order without the value shown however here I'll most likely be posting more up but with 30 teams involved not quite all of them 
The posts here in my blog will go into things in a bit more detail than in the MLB thread posts. This is also where my picks & bets will posted rather than in that thread also.
Since I haven't made my bet yet, see next post!
_________________
How much wood would a woodchuck chuck if a woodchuck could chuck wood?
http://www.online-betting-guide.co.uk/forum/viewtopic.php?f=31&t=14998&postdays=0&postorder=asc&start=48
"Viva los Bio-Dome!!"
November 2007 Premiership Challenge Winner
Last edited by spider2097 on Tue Sep 18, 2007 12:16 am; edited 3 times in total |
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spider2097
Triple Crown Winner
Joined: 06 Jul 2007
Posts: 1308
Location: Bromborough, UK
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| Posted: Mon Jul 23, 2007 9:31 pm Post subject: |
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Legend Fixture/away confidence %/home confidence %/away value/home value
Date : 23 July 2007
Boston@Cleveland 39 61 -17.08 7.61
Minnesota@Toronto 56 44 -10.66 -3.77
Milwaukee@Cincinnati 49 51 -4.04 -9.03
LA Dodgers@Houston 46 54 -16.42 2.30
NY Yankees@Kansas City 67 33 11.07 -18.67
Detroit@Chicago White Sox 51 49 -7.31 -6.08
Seattle@Texas 43 57 -13.64 1.96
San Diego@Colorado 47 53 -0.92 -12.10
Florida@Arizona 51 49 3.36 -18.32
Oakland@LA Angels 38 62 -18.85 11.08
Atlanta@San Francisco 57 43 9.27 -24.88
Only the 10 games tonight. Now - the bet :
Cleveland
Yankees
San Diego
Florida
Why the picks? Why the picks? Well, Cleveland and Yankees are heavy favourites, while San Diego & Florida edge the value side of their fixtures.
Of course, there's a bit more to it than that. Looking into the all the previews & history between the teams gives me confidence that these are good selections.
Why 4? Well, I'm not too sure, I just like doing Lucky 15's.
So - in summation... Started with £4.18
10p Lucky 15 = £1.50
Remaining bank = £2.68
_________________
How much wood would a woodchuck chuck if a woodchuck could chuck wood?
http://www.online-betting-guide.co.uk/forum/viewtopic.php?f=31&t=14998&postdays=0&postorder=asc&start=48
"Viva los Bio-Dome!!"
November 2007 Premiership Challenge Winner |
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spider2097
Triple Crown Winner
Joined: 06 Jul 2007
Posts: 1308
Location: Bromborough, UK
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| Posted: Mon Jul 23, 2007 10:00 pm Post subject: |
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Being my blog, am also putting up all my other betting misdemeanours as well...
Bet 2 - 1p E/W Lucky 15
To win Prem - Man U
To win Championship - Charlton
To win League 1 - Nottm Forest
To win League 2 - MK Dons
Yup, 10months to win £15.66. But, only 30p bet
Bet 3 - 8p double Draw/Shamrock ht/ft
Helsingborg win (in play while 2nil down)
Remaining bank - £2.30
Bet 3 - lost 
Bet 1 & Bet 2 open
Remaining bank £2.30
_________________
How much wood would a woodchuck chuck if a woodchuck could chuck wood?
http://www.online-betting-guide.co.uk/forum/viewtopic.php?f=31&t=14998&postdays=0&postorder=asc&start=48
"Viva los Bio-Dome!!"
November 2007 Premiership Challenge Winner |
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spider2097
Triple Crown Winner
Joined: 06 Jul 2007
Posts: 1308
Location: Bromborough, UK
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| Posted: Mon Jul 23, 2007 10:34 pm Post subject: |
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Considering putting bet on Derby to win Premiership under the William Hill handicap system.
They start with +50pts.
It's only 15/1 (as are ALL teams under the William Hill handicap). Each Way gives 1/5 the odds each-way but gives to 4th place.
Going on last seasons points tally, Derby would only need 45pts to come 4th... (with handicap)
Hmm.... 3/1 Derby accumulating a minimum of 45pts? Are 45pts beyond Derby this season? Of course, on last seasons stats (including last seasons handicap) Derby would have needed 50pts to win it....
The handicap is quite a good signal of who is going down, but the teams from the top half of the table last season seem to have ungenerous handicaps...
Ramble over....Will have to consider this a bit longer...
_________________
How much wood would a woodchuck chuck if a woodchuck could chuck wood?
http://www.online-betting-guide.co.uk/forum/viewtopic.php?f=31&t=14998&postdays=0&postorder=asc&start=48
"Viva los Bio-Dome!!"
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spider2097
Triple Crown Winner
Joined: 06 Jul 2007
Posts: 1308
Location: Bromborough, UK
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| Posted: Tue Jul 24, 2007 1:23 pm Post subject: |
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What a bad night that was...
Let's start with where I'm up to with bets & bank...
Starting bank - £4.18
Bet 1 - £0.10 Lucky 15 (£1.50) on Baseball - Total return = £0.16
Bet 2 - 1p E/W Lucky 15 (30p) Win Prem/Championship/League 1/League 2 - pending
Bet 3 - 8p double Helsingborg win & Draw/Shamrock (ht/ft) - lost
Remaining bank - £2.46
That's my worst night for a while. Too be honest the football bet was very speculative, Helsingborg were 2-1 down at the time & it was placed in running...
Cleveland, San Diego & Florida losing were the stingers...
Will be covering the baseball results in the following post however I do have a couple of initial thoughts.
Boston continue to be a team that I can not rely upon in terms of betting.
If I bet against them - they win. If I bet on them - they lose. In other words - I lose. From this point on, I think I should do my best to avoid bets involving Boston.
On a related note, Detroit have a similar effect on my bets and if I had chosen a bet to place on the Detroit match it would not have been on the Detroit win.
IMO, last nights results were a little strange & goes to show that sometimes you have to go with bad value bets...
_________________
How much wood would a woodchuck chuck if a woodchuck could chuck wood?
http://www.online-betting-guide.co.uk/forum/viewtopic.php?f=31&t=14998&postdays=0&postorder=asc&start=48
"Viva los Bio-Dome!!"
November 2007 Premiership Challenge Winner
Last edited by spider2097 on Tue Sep 18, 2007 12:12 am; edited 1 time in total |
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spider2097
Triple Crown Winner
Joined: 06 Jul 2007
Posts: 1308
Location: Bromborough, UK
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| Posted: Tue Jul 24, 2007 3:16 pm Post subject: |
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Baseball Results 23rd July 2007
Boston@Cleveland 6 2
Milwaukee@Cincinnati 1 2 (went 12 innings)
Minnesota@Toronto 4 6
LA Dodgers@Houston 10 2
NY Yankees@Kansas City 9 2
San Diego@Colorado 5 7
Detroit@Chicago White Sox 9 6
Florida@Arizona 3 4
Seattle@Texas 7 8
Atlanta@San Francisco 4 2
Oakland@LA Angels 12 6
The teams in red (and the respective scores) are the teams that had positive values for the bets. See previous post for actual figures.
OK, so now for another interesting point with regards to pundit confidence. I'm only going to post the figures for the winning sides.
Boston - 39% Cincinnati - 51% Toronto - 44% LA Dodgers - 46% NY Yankees - 67% Colorado - 53% Detroit - 51% Arizona - 49% Texas - 57% Atlanta - 57% Oakland - 38%
I'm surprised at the amount of teams polling less than 50% that actually won. Not just that but with two teams at under 40% of pundit confidence, I'm wondering if the confidence is justified. Then again, I placed a bet on San Diego, who were underdogs, based on the relative value of the bet compared to Colorado. On the other hand, from previews and form heading into the fixtures I didn't see too much to sway me from going with the figures produced.
As we are all too well aware, anything can happen in sport. If there was a way to fully predict sporting outcomes, no-one would lose except the bookies & maybe, just maybe, we wouldn't love it quite so much.
_________________
How much wood would a woodchuck chuck if a woodchuck could chuck wood?
http://www.online-betting-guide.co.uk/forum/viewtopic.php?f=31&t=14998&postdays=0&postorder=asc&start=48
"Viva los Bio-Dome!!"
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spider2097
Triple Crown Winner
Joined: 06 Jul 2007
Posts: 1308
Location: Bromborough, UK
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| Posted: Tue Jul 24, 2007 8:05 pm Post subject: |
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It's my 2nd day and I'm already feeling a bit ugh about saying was going to put all these stats up in my blog
Nevermind, not a prob. Am too late for 2 fixtures today, Seattle and Detroit are playing in double headers and as such it creates confusion which actually helps me not consider Detroit for a punt 
Legend
Fixture %away confidence/% home confidence/Av. Away value/Av. Home value
Tampa Bay@Baltimore 54 46 5.06 -16.42
Boston@Cleveland 40 60 -18.81 10.72
Washington@Philadelphia 35 65 -12.37 18.31
Minnesota@Toronto 40 60 -19.17 10.96
Milwaukee@Cincinnati 61 39 2.81 -9.98
Pittsburgh@NY Mets 35 65 -6.68 -0.69
LA Dodgers@Houston 54 46 3.68 -14.26
NY Yankees@Kansas City 74 26 8.22 -9.81
Chicago Cubs@St Louis 55 45 -8.99 -1.23
San Diego@Colorado 53 47 -17.97 5.05
Florida@Arizona 52 48 -1.57 -9.41
Oakland@LA Angels 31 69 -13.50 11.74
Atlanta@San Francisco 58 42 2.85 -10.53
Yea, I know... Lots of figures so here's the positive values...
Philadelphia Phillies 18.31
LA Angels 11.74
Toronto Blue Jays 10.96
Cleveland Indians 10.72
NY Yankees 8.22
Tampa Bay Devil Rays 5.06
Colorado Rockies 5.05
LA Dodgers 3.68
Atlanta Braves 2.85
Milwaukee Brewers 2.81
And now, my choices for tonight. I'm being a little speculative tonight and doing two Yankees (no pun intended)
Current bank : £2.46 Open bets : Bet 2
Bet 4 : 10p Yankee (£1.10)
LA Dodgers
Colorado Rockies
LA Angels
Atlanta Braves
Bet 5 : 10p Yankee (£1.10)
Tampa Bay Devil Rays
Philadelphia Phillies
Milwaukee Brewers
NY Yankees
Remaining bank : £0.26
Let's hope I've improved my decision making since last night. Apart from doing two bets so that it looks like I'm chasing money...
_________________
How much wood would a woodchuck chuck if a woodchuck could chuck wood?
http://www.online-betting-guide.co.uk/forum/viewtopic.php?f=31&t=14998&postdays=0&postorder=asc&start=48
"Viva los Bio-Dome!!"
November 2007 Premiership Challenge Winner |
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spider2097
Triple Crown Winner
Joined: 06 Jul 2007
Posts: 1308
Location: Bromborough, UK
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| Posted: Mon Jul 30, 2007 5:16 pm Post subject: |
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Yup, those yankees didn't do too well. In fact only got a return from the 2nd Yankee I placed.
Add to that my general state of mind with regards to still being out of work and getting turned down for a Career Development Loan so I can't take that place on a Computeach course, I decided to take a break for a few days. I guess I should have posted this up sooner but hey it's only myself I'm letting down hopefully....
Thought Saturday would've given me a bit of a lift, but my beloved Mighty Whites managed to lose to Bolton. We had the better of what was ultimately a very scrappy game but it did give me hope for the season upcoming. If we can play to that level when the kick off of the season arrives I reckon there's a good chance of us bothering the play-offs this year.
On the other hand, Bolton looked rather shaky. Pretty sure Jaaskelainen will be the reason they stay up. Then again, Anelka wasn't playing and don't think a couple of their new signings were available so it's still up for debate. Newcastle look awesome in the few games I've seen them and they haven't really been what you would call their "proper first team" but again a new manager may have other ideas and the team he's been fielding may very well be his first choice. I still don't get the fact that Luque scored twice against Celtic. The penalty against Juventus was understandable, but for goodness sake - it's LUQUE!!!!
Plus I've fogotten what I bet on Saturday night. Beer & betting don't mix people. I know there was betting on in running events, but overall I lost 68p... A-ha, found them.. (since William Hill revamped it's website it all looks very pretty but I'm finding it awkward at the minute)..
I obviously tried to hedge my bets by betting on the different outcomes of same event (again beer & betting don't mix) but here goes...
Bank - £1.41
Bet 6 - FC Dallas v Pachuca Live betting Draw@3-1 11p stake Won  Return = 44p
Bet 7 - FC Dallas v Pachuca Live betting Dallas win@2/7 £1 stake lost 
Bet 8 - Florida@San Francisco Live Betting SF win@4/9 20p stake Won return 29p
Bet 9 - Florida@San Francisco Live betting Florida win@13/8 10p stake lost
Total stake - £1.41 Total return - £0.73
New Bank - £0.73
Bah..
This isn't good...
Open Bets - Bet 2 (from this blog)
Am also throwing in my two open bets have got on William Hill so hopefully I keep this going to see whether or not any good.
Bet 00 E/W Single Everton to win Prem W/O Big 4@8/1 35p Total stake 70p
Bet 00a Kieren Fallon to ride 50 Flat winners in Ireland 2007 @15/1 Total stake 15p
Yea, not huge stakes but then again wins are wins and when I get back into work (or start actually winning ) that'll change.
_________________
How much wood would a woodchuck chuck if a woodchuck could chuck wood?
http://www.online-betting-guide.co.uk/forum/viewtopic.php?f=31&t=14998&postdays=0&postorder=asc&start=48
"Viva los Bio-Dome!!"
November 2007 Premiership Challenge Winner |
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spider2097
Triple Crown Winner
Joined: 06 Jul 2007
Posts: 1308
Location: Bromborough, UK
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spider2097
Triple Crown Winner
Joined: 06 Jul 2007
Posts: 1308
Location: Bromborough, UK
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| Posted: Tue Jul 31, 2007 11:33 am Post subject: |
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Maybe it's just me, but football is too quirky to bet on.
Nantes & Norrkoping won. Kalmar & Esbjerg let me down. Meaning my bet returned a grand total of 11p from my 55p stake. Kalmar is the big one, every stat, every tipster, gosh even the way they played meant that they should not have lost that one. Football, don't ya just love it?
Bank - £0.18
Bet 10 - Won 2/4 Yankee style Total stake £0.55 Total return £0.11
Total bank - £0.29
Looks like chasing but :
Bet 11 - 31/07/07 2:15pm Goodwood Collateral Damage@12/1 E/W (1/4) Stake 5p
Bet 12 - 31/07/07 2:50pm Goodwood Aqaleem@5/2 E/w (1/5) Stake 5p
Bet 13 - 4p E/W Double combining selections from Bet 11 & Bet 12
Total stake £0.28 Remaining bank £0.01
Bet 14 - 1p 4fold Accumulator : LA Angels@Seattle over 8.5 1/1 Lost
PHI@Cubs Cubs win 10/11 Lost
TOR@TB TOR win with -1.5 5/4 Lost
KCR@MIN MIN win with -1.5 29/20 WON
Bet 14 - Lost
Open bets : Bet 2, Bet 00, Bet 00a, Bet 11, Bet 12, Bet 13
Remaining bank £0.00
The horses look ok, get tips emailed to me & Aqaleem especially has been mooted around the OLBG Tips section.
Could do with them both winning though so I don't have to put money into my betting account just yet. One of the reasons for this blog is to see how long I can make £5 last! Increasing my bank will come with looking at what I'm betting where and learning when to spot bad betting opportunities.
Related News
Am applying to go on the new series of "1 vs 100" that is the show around the lottery on Saturday nights in the UK. Will keep blog updated as and when I get news.
Still no news on the job front Man, I need to get back into work.
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How much wood would a woodchuck chuck if a woodchuck could chuck wood?
http://www.online-betting-guide.co.uk/forum/viewtopic.php?f=31&t=14998&postdays=0&postorder=asc&start=48
"Viva los Bio-Dome!!"
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spider2097
Triple Crown Winner
Joined: 06 Jul 2007
Posts: 1308
Location: Bromborough, UK
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| Posted: Tue Jul 31, 2007 6:33 pm Post subject: |
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Bet 11 - Lost
Bet 12 - Placed Return - 8p
Bet 13 - Lost
New Bank - £0.08
Deposit from bank account to betting account - £3.00
New Bank - £3.08
Bet 15 - Rangers vs Zeta - Draw/Rangers (HT/FT)@11/2 Stake - £0.08
New Bank - £3.00
_________________
How much wood would a woodchuck chuck if a woodchuck could chuck wood?
http://www.online-betting-guide.co.uk/forum/viewtopic.php?f=31&t=14998&postdays=0&postorder=asc&start=48
"Viva los Bio-Dome!!"
November 2007 Premiership Challenge Winner
Last edited by spider2097 on Tue Jul 31, 2007 10:11 pm; edited 1 time in total |
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