Titan's 'there must be a footie system' Blog

[thetitan]

A bit fed-up with just punting on matches, I'm convinced that there MUST be a golden goose for football matches.

I find football a very profitable sport but my ROI is typically quite small. Therefore, I think it's best to increase my volume of bets.

So, I'll try and look at all footie markets from now until the end of the season, namely things like HT/FT, betting on the draw, unders/overs, AGS, dutching correct scores etc etc.

If anybody has any more suggestions for alternative markets or anything like that, I'll definitely try it out and post any results here.

Starting with a token 200pts bank but won't be following any particular staking system until I find some results here.

Should be interesting...
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Corner vulture

Jimmy Bullard for England Captain. Seriously.

[thetitan]

Been quite interested in taking draw/win on the HT/FT markets for odds-on favourites, we had a great thread going on the main forum which seemed to die a slow death despite some pretty good profits. From that thread, we basically saw that draw/win is often over-priced, as the favourite starts slowly or the underdog plays 10 men behind the ball.

I'll be broadly blind backing to start off with a 'favourite' defined as a team about evens or less.

Just wanted to re-iterate that this is an experiment in progress, wouldn't recommend spending cash until we show a profit!

So I'll start Sunday with 1pt on a few of these bets...

draw/chelsea @ 5.1

draw/man utd @ 4.7

draw/ac milan @ 4.9

draw/inter milan @ 4.8

draw/real madrid @ 4.8

draw/valencia @ 5.3

draw/espanyol @ 4.9

7pts staked

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also seems to be a bit of a cult figure on the Betfair forums called THE CATT who is dutching scores, but at pretty low odds (about 1.4)...I'm going to try this based on a few stats but mainly instinct (good root of all systems!) and mainly will try and get odds-against selections...although I won't turn down a 1.4 winner!

At the same time, I don't see the point in dutching just for the sake of it, especially when you fancy a particular result. eg tomorrow I fancy a Chelsea win at evens, but dutching 1-0. 1-1, 2-0 and 2-1 gives only a tiny bit above evens, so there is little advantage IMO to dutching this game.
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Corner vulture

Jimmy Bullard for England Captain. Seriously.

[gecko6]

hi TT

yep- Ive seen the Catt and his preds.... it's a reasonable theory if the results are fairly obvious...watching the one on here too as its going well

HT/FT is a good market... 28/1 on most for a turnaround... I might have a look and see how many games actually do change lead from HT to FT

the draw/result for faves is a goo dtheory...lot of games seem to go that way...there was a stat in my HT Lay the draw blog, where last season, chelsea had drawn 14 games at HT I think and went on to win 13 of them...something like 93%... whereas utd strangely were totally the opposite...

regarding footie...there is money in trading...I often Lay the fave (utd at 1.3 chelsea at 1.4) etc and then back them when price has risen to more value...

or conversely backing generally the outsider if there is value..ie backed brum yesterday when hammers scored...brum went to 18.0...quick profit when they equalised

anyway, be interested to see what you do fella

[KanKeano]

[thetitan]

cheers fellas, I suppose this isn't rocket science so I'm sure we'll be able to find something
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Corner vulture

Jimmy Bullard for England Captain. Seriously.

[thetitan]

AGS bets (all 1pt)

Joe Cole @ 4.6

Cristiano Ronaldo @ evens

Eto'o @ 2.9

Hosni @ 4.5

Amr Zaki @ 3.3

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wont add this to the blog but just seen siena to beat AC milan 3-0 is at 400/1 on Betfair, just can't resist a couple of quid on it!
_________________
Corner vulture

Jimmy Bullard for England Captain. Seriously.

[thetitan]

all 5 AGS bets failed miserably, was probably a bad move to put 3 on the ACON final but i thought they were all reasonable value.

Running total

AGS: -5pts

HT/FT's not looking too good so far.
_________________
Corner vulture

Jimmy Bullard for England Captain. Seriously.

[thetitan]

cheers chipmuncher, that's the type of thing I want to be looking at so I will definitely keep track of that, many thanks for the suggestion

here are the HT/FT results:

draw/chelsea @ 5.1

lost, HT 0-0, FT 0-0

draw/man utd @ 4.7

lost, HT 0-2, FT 1-2

draw/ac milan @ 4.9

won, HT 0-0, FT 1-0

draw/inter milan @ 4.8

won, HT 0-0, FT 0-2

draw/real madrid @ 4.8

lost, HT 5-0, FT 7-0

draw/valencia @ 5.3

lost, HT 2-0, FT 2-1

draw/espanyol @ 4.9

lost, HT 1-2, FT 1-2

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so, 2 winners out of 7 in the HT/FT market today, the two milan teams coming good @ 4.8 and 4.9.

Total staked = 7pts
Returns = 9.7pts

So, a decent start for HT/FT betting, let's hope this will keep up

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_________________
Corner vulture

Jimmy Bullard for England Captain. Seriously.

[sandhu40]

[thetitan]

hi sandhu, thanks for popping over

You make a good point and I'll definitely be on the look-out for low-scoring teams at home...in the long-term I suspect that we'll get best returns on the HT/FT market with low-scoring teams, but for now I'm just going to wait and see whether there are any particular trends over the next few weeks...over time, I definitely won't be blind backing on this market and will look to identify certain traits which give the best returns.

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Don't fancy guessing the correct score in the arsenal game tonight, could be anything IMO and I'll try and stick to games I reckon will be low scoring for correct scores.

Unquoted looks pretty low @ 6.4 although I hate laying unquoted with attacking teams!

I do fancy two bets though...

1pt Adebayor AGS @ evens

1pt HT/FT draw/arsenal @ 4.5
_________________
Corner vulture

Jimmy Bullard for England Captain. Seriously.

[betking]

Ive often wondered how profitable (or not) laying all the odds on favourites who are away from home in the UEFA Cup and Champions League each season. Might be something worth following on paper?
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Red Bull gives you wings.

Stoke and Hull better stock up on Red Bull then, as its the only way they'll get off the floor next season.....

[spider2097]

With regards to turnarounds in the HT/FT markets, they can be found - it's a case of looking at a huge amount of matches & then whittling down to the ones with a realistic chance. Then you have to decide whether or not to take it.

From the four major European leagues - EPL, La Liga, Serie A & Bundesliga (sorry SPL fans) - on average there's about 4 turnarounds per week. Not always 1 from each I think titan might be on the right track with his draw ht/team ft strategy - but again, it's a case of picking the right FT result to start off with & then having the right match that will be drawing at HT. In general, the usual 1 out of 3 winning selections will see you in good profit. 1 out of 4 will see a small profit so should be ok.

A reasonable alternative to HT/FT turnarounds is the "Resurrection" bet type, however this is not always an option. For instance, tonight "Resurrection : Arsenal To Win From Behind @ 7.00" but Bet365 are not offering this bet with Blackburn winning from behind. There is the added bonus of a Resurrection bet being more likely than a HT/FT turnaround though. From watching the results from the four leagues mentioned above, on average I would say that this bet is successful around 8 times each weekend.

Good Luck!
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