Titan's 'there must be a footie system' Blog

[thetitan]

dutching the correct score for tonight in olympiakos vs chelsea...I can't see chelsea running away with this and they'll probably be happy to defend a 2-0 lead and sit back.

at the same time, olympiakos have a very good record in the domestic league this season and a win is not out of the question for them, although i think it's highly unlikely.

odds aren't great but I fancy it to be low-scoring so I'll take it on.

staking 10pts @ 1.42:

0-0
1-0
1-1
0-1
0-2
1-2

also just realised that if I'd taken on all of these correct scores at their best odds, I would have got 1.61 instead of 1.42, a huge huge difference. Must get on earlier in future.
_________________
Corner vulture

Jimmy Bullard for England Captain. Seriously.

[thetitan]

for tomorrow, dutching correct score in celtic vs barcelona.

barca have only scored 7 goals in their last 8 games and Celtic will no doubt be happy with a 1-0, probably even 0-0.

0-0 here looks quite high at 10.5 and hopefully all the prices will drop by tomorrow!

Advantage of taking early prices here is immediately obvious, taking 10pts @ 1.61:

0-0
1-0
1-1
0-1
0-2
1-2
_________________
Corner vulture

Jimmy Bullard for England Captain. Seriously.

[thetitan]

olympiakos vs chelsea finished 0-0 for returns of 14.2pts

PS: sorry for the 'jackson pollock' nature of this blog!
_________________
Corner vulture

Jimmy Bullard for England Captain. Seriously.

[thetitan]

celtic vs barca finished 3-2 to barca which never entered my thoughts, bound to have one or two anomalies like that so not the end of the world.

so far, 60pts staked for a total of 89.9pts return

strike rate - 6 winners, 1 loser

--------

onto the weekend...

liverpool vs boro

have said on the BOTW threads this should be a nailed-on under 2.5 goals game, so I'm dutching scores accordingly.

0-0
1-0
1-1
2-1
3-0
0-1

10pts @ 1.45


--------------

fulham vs west ham

both teams short on goals, could go either way although would be surprised (and happy) if fulham got something out of this.

0-0
1-0
1-1
2-1
0-1
0-2
1-2
2-2

10pts @ 1.37
_________________
Corner vulture

Jimmy Bullard for England Captain. Seriously.

[thetitan]

liverpool vs boro ended 3-2, maybe i should blindly add that scoreline as cover!

fulham vs west ham ended 0-1 due to a goal which should have been disallowed.

80pts staked for 103.6pts return

strike rate - 7 winners, 2 losers

dutching correct scores in man city vs everton tonight:

0-0
1-0
1-1
2-1
1-2
0-1
2-2

10pts at 1.31
_________________
Corner vulture

Jimmy Bullard for England Captain. Seriously.

[fairfranco]

good luck titan, i've got all of those except 2-2. fairly evenly spread though not down to pennies or anything.

i'm quite enjoying this score dutching. had one of my most successful ones on the Man U game at the weekend, i'd initially only put one point on the unquoted but watching teh game i could see there were goals in it and so layed each current score for the stake at lower odds.

Not what i'd normally do but in this case it was clear that the best thing i could do was push my unquoted bet to the biggest profit possible!

suprised you didn't do the chelsea v spurs game, i was going to leave it but decided to go with a small stake on 1-1, 2-1 and 1-2 in the end.

[beechy1212]

Hello mate,

I've been doing this Dutching lark myself and was wondering if you had thought about tweaking the system a bit. I was looking at games where the draw and away win were long odds and instead of including 1-1, 0-0 or 1-2, for example, what about taking the odds for a draw and/or an away win to replace the scores and just keep the correct scores for the clear favourites?

[thetitan]

cheers for the comments fellas

beechy, are you referring to things like i

just seen everton won 2-0, even worse, lescott was second goalscorer and not first, FF's tip nearly came good!

Was seriously considering 0-2 as a correct score but as I got on relatively late, the price wasnt good anyway and I thought Man City wouldn't be beaten comprehensively, if at all (ie I thought they'd probably score if Everton did).


90pts staked for 103.6pts return

7 wins, 3 losers
_________________
Corner vulture

Jimmy Bullard for England Captain. Seriously.

[thetitan]

boro vs sheffield utd

10pts @ 1.41

0-0
1-0
2-0
3-0
2-1
1-1
0-1

=========

finished 0-0


100pts staked for 117.8pts return

8 wins, 3 losers
_________________
Corner vulture

Jimmy Bullard for England Captain. Seriously.

[thetitan]

west ham vs chelsea

10pts @ 1.38

0-0
1-0
1-1
0-1
0-2
1-2
2-2

was also thinking about man city, birmingham, boro games as potentially decent for dutching...will sleep on it.
_________________
Corner vulture

Jimmy Bullard for England Captain. Seriously.

[thetitan]

finished 0-4 so new stats are 110pts staked for 117.8pts return

8 win, 4 losers.

==========================

I feel I've been faffing around too much recently, complicating things unnecessarily. I'll just look for good value here, regardless.

==========================

chelsea to beat barnsley on the -1.5 AH @ 1.9

liverpool to beat newcastle on the -1.5AH @ 2.1

reading vs man city draw @ 3.25

blackpool to beat soton @ 2.1

hull to beat scunthorpe @ 1.8

plymouth to beat sheffield utd @ evens

bristol city DNB to beat leicester @ 2.05

QPR DNB to beat Sheffield wednesday @ 2.15

stoke to beat burnley @ 2.2

carlisle to beat brighton @ 1.8

leyton orient to beat huddersfield @ 2.2

rochdale to beat mansfield @ 2.2

hereford to beat accrington stanley @ 2.1

darlington to beat wycombe @ 2.9

stockport to beat bradford @ 1.85

=========

SPEND: 15pts
RETURNS: 12.85pts
_________________
Corner vulture

Jimmy Bullard for England Captain. Seriously.

[thetitan]

16. Arsenal to beat Wigan @ 1.6

17. Everton to beat Sunderland on the AH -1 @ 3.4

18. Cardiff to beat Boro DNB @ 4.0

19. Bristol Rovers to beat West Brom DNB @ 2.7

20. Wrexham to beat Chester @ 3.1

===========

SPEND: 5pts

RETURNS: 8.1pts
_________________
Corner vulture

Jimmy Bullard for England Captain. Seriously.