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thetitan
At Stud
Joined: 25 Apr 2007
Posts: 2965
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 Posted: Sun Mar 02, 2008 11:36 pm Post subject: Titan's Tennis Blog |
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This is hopefully going to be my last blog for a while 
Want to record all of my tennis bets, I mainly trade WTA as I feel that ATP isn't that great for trading most of the time.
Hopefully I'll be able to pick out some decent value on both WTA and ATP here, will be staking an arbitrary 1pt on each bet, hopefully I can get a decent staking plan together after trying this out for a while.
Suppose it doesn't matter what size the bank is (unless I go bankrupt, lol)...let's call it 100pts for starters.
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thetitan
At Stud
Joined: 25 Apr 2007
Posts: 2965
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| Posted: Mon Mar 03, 2008 2:40 pm Post subject: |
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For some of these bets, I may occasionally have keep bets so I can get one or two ticks higher in-play.
1. Federer to beat Murray @ 1.26
reached 1.11
2. Johansson to beat Canas @ 2.12
3. Kiefer to beat Becker @ 1.62
4. Hewitt to beat Safin @ 1.63
5. Ginepri to beat Malisse @ 1.82
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Last edited by thetitan on Tue Mar 04, 2008 6:58 pm; edited 4 times in total |
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fairfranco
At Stud
Joined: 17 Nov 2005
Posts: 4541
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| Posted: Mon Mar 03, 2008 3:10 pm Post subject: |
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are you going to be trading or just betting outight on these?
good luck |
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thetitan
At Stud
Joined: 25 Apr 2007
Posts: 2965
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| Posted: Tue Mar 04, 2008 12:00 am Post subject: |
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hi FF
I want to investigate as to whether it's better in the long run to trade out or just let bets ride.
I can't predict WTA for the life of me, as it's just so volatile, but I wonder whether straight punting on ATP might be better in the long run than trading.
I also think that from now on, I'll ask for prices a few ticks higher than market price (ie so it's backed in-running). If it's not matched, then no problem, just means no loss...if it is matched it's a few extra percent profit on the same bet (although of course I suppose it has more chance of losing at that time).
Looks like a have a great touch already - I made the world's best player lose with my first bet! 
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fairfranco
At Stud
Joined: 17 Nov 2005
Posts: 4541
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| Posted: Tue Mar 04, 2008 10:03 am Post subject: |
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oh dear!
I think going a few ticks higher is generally pretty safe, even I think in the David Ferrer game where he won pretty easily the price would have gone up at least 2-5 ticks on Ferrer.
I got caught on last night trying to go 1 tick higher pre match on Forest under2.5 though. I was sure i'd dropped it down to make sure it got matched but appearedi hadn't and i won £17 instaed of £70, was very frustrating as it was my NAP of the day and i was VERY confident about it!
I lost badly on Fed also and wished i'd left it when i traded out after the first set but I couldn't resist the improved price of 1.5 in the final set!
Not a good start, hopefully it picks up for you! |
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thetitan
At Stud
Joined: 25 Apr 2007
Posts: 2965
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| Posted: Tue Mar 04, 2008 12:53 pm Post subject: |
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cheers FF, shame about forest although if it makes you feel any better, I followed your tip 
Where possible, I'll try and quote the lowest and highest prices the player reached.
EDIT: from now on i'll start rating each bet in terms of confidence out of 5, 5 = most confident, 1 = least confident. Hopefully in future it will help to improve my staking plan.
6. F Lopez to beat Tipsarevic @ 2.2
confidence = 3
[color=green]
7. Nadal to beat Kohlschreiber @ 1.4
confidence = 3
8. Cilic to beat Djokovic @ 6.2
reached 5.5
confidence = 1
9. Zverev to beat Luzcak @ 1.76
confidence = 2
10. Roddick to beat Ferrero @ 1.46
confidence = 5
11. Llodra to beat Anderson @ 1.6
confidence = 4
12. Isner to beat Falla @ 1.9
confidence = 3
==========
S/R: 7/12
Total spent = 12pts
Returns = 12.04pts
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Last edited by thetitan on Wed Mar 05, 2008 2:21 pm; edited 5 times in total |
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thetitan
At Stud
Joined: 25 Apr 2007
Posts: 2965
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| Posted: Wed Mar 05, 2008 11:12 am Post subject: |
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12+1. Murray to beat Verdasco @ 1.2
confidence = 4
highest reached: 2.4
14. Ferrer to beat Rochus @ 1.22
confidence = 5
highest reached: 6.0
15. Feliciano Lopez to beat Berdych @ 3.4
confidence = 3
one way traffic for lopez
16. Andreev to beat Gasquet @ 4.0
one way traffic for andreev
confidence = 2
17. Santoro to beat Djokovic @ 8.2
confidence = 1
lowest traded = 8.0
18. Roddick to beat PH Mathieu @ 1.38
confidence = 4
one way traffic for A-Rod
19. Canas to beat Guccione @ 1.5
one way traffic for canas
confidence = 3
20. Delic to beat Starace @ 1.63
one way traffic for delic (retirement by starace at a set and 3-0 down!)
confidence = 2
==============
nice day there 
strike rate: 15 winners, 5 losers
spent: 20pts
returns: 25.37pts
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kaiser888
2yo
Joined: 23 Feb 2008
Posts: 7
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| Posted: Thu Mar 06, 2008 1:17 am Post subject: |
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Nice Fred.
Will have to start up one of these myself. |
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thetitan
At Stud
Joined: 25 Apr 2007
Posts: 2965
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| Posted: Thu Mar 06, 2008 11:21 am Post subject: |
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21. Ferrer to beat Lopez @ 1.56
confidence = 3
lowest reached = 1.21
22. Murray to beat Davydenko @ 1.66
confidence = 4
lowest reached = 1.4
23. Roddick to beat Nadal @ 2.4
confidence = 1
highest reached = 3.6
24. Djokovic to beat Andreev @ 1.19
confidence = 5
highest reached = 1.29
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Last edited by thetitan on Thu Mar 06, 2008 7:25 pm; edited 2 times in total |
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fairfranco
At Stud
Joined: 17 Nov 2005
Posts: 4541
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| Posted: Thu Mar 06, 2008 2:35 pm Post subject: |
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not a good day for you there titan!
i made a truly awful bet on ferrer backing him at 1.25 straight after he went a break up in the first set.
On the other hand I went big on Davydenko at 2.6, seemed like rediculous value to me though I knew it wouldn't be an easy game.
didn't watch the first set but watching the second set I felt Davydenko was dominating the rally's with his power while Murray was making more UE's and getting wound up too easily.
roddick definately a value pick against Nadal as well |
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thetitan
At Stud
Joined: 25 Apr 2007
Posts: 2965
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| Posted: Thu Mar 06, 2008 4:09 pm Post subject: |
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ferrer was awful, I can't really complain about that, was just one of those days for him.
murray played similarly poorly to Ferrer, both players gave away breaks very cheaply, credit to Davydenko, I genuinely can't remember more than a handful of UE's from Davydenko, he played an awesome game. Murray's constant moaning and swearing was disgraceful though. Federer will be wondering how he lost to Murray!
Not at all confident about Roddick but Kohlschreiber's performance against Nadal shows how vulnerable he can be. As usual, Roddick will need to win in 2!
Roddick 2-0 is at over 3/1 so I'm having a tiny punt on that.
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kaiser888
2yo
Joined: 23 Feb 2008
Posts: 7
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| Posted: Thu Mar 06, 2008 7:14 pm Post subject: |
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Nice win for Rod there, and easy for Djoko......
Was very close to backing him big for the tourny this morning at Tote....... but after having traded the Hewitt match  ....... I managed to fall asleep........ by the time I woke up it was too late to get on 
Can't see anyone beating him.
Still a decent day though. |
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