Chudovski's MLB Blog 2008

Chudovski · Posted: Tue Mar 25, 2008 6:52 am Post subject: Chudovski's MLB Blog 2008

The 2008 MLB season opens up today, and it's not in the US. Instead the first game sees the Boston Red Sox take on the Oakland Athletics in the Tokyo Dome at 10:05am GMT.

Daisuke Matsuzaka, or Dice-K as he's commonly known in the States, returns to Tokyo where he made his professional debut in 1999. Now nine years later and aged 27, he returns having signed a $52 million contract with the current World Series champions.

The preparations haven't been perfect for Dice-K as Josh Beckett was originally set to start for the Sox, but back spasms have kept him in the US. Dice-K's wife has also been pregnant meaning there was uncertainty that he would even travel to Japan, however she gave birth early, on March 15th.

Dice-K ended last season with a 15-12 record and a 4.40 ERA. He lost his only start against the A's, losing 2-0 in June.

The A's open up with Joe Blanton who posted a 14-10 record in 2007, with a 3.95 ERA. Going into last season he had a 2-0 record (2.03 ERA), however he went 0-1 (4.66 ERA) in 3 starts in 2007. Dan Haren is a huge loss for the A's, as is the injured Chavez, however they have a good young side and a decent bullpen to back up Blanton.

Last season the sides ended with a 4-4 head-to-head record. The BoSox have lost their last two season openers and six of their last seven, whilst the A's have lost their last three.

Their will be immense pressure on Dice-K and the BoSox as they try to retain their World Series crown, and this pressure and long trip to Japan may take its toll moreso than it does on Oakland, so i'm going to start the season with a handicap bet on the A's.

Verdict: Oakland + 2.5 @ 10/21.

Chudovski · Posted: Tue Mar 25, 2008 7:27 pm Post subject:

Nice start for the blog, with the A's going into the final innings with a 4-3 lead. The BoSox scored a solo run to tie it at 4-4, taking it into extra innings. Bosox ended up winning 6-5 after 10 innings, but the A's end victorious on the handicap.

Bank: 1023.81 (+23.81)
SR: 1/1

Chudovski · Posted: Mon Mar 31, 2008 1:12 am Post subject:

Just spent 20 minutes writing up a very detailed preview of the match, but when it came to posting it was wiped out and i don't have time and can't be bothered to do it again. I'm gutted.

Basically, the tip is 50 pts on the Braves to win @ 1.65.

Chudovski · Posted: Mon Mar 31, 2008 5:43 am Post subject:

Well, that was disappointing.

Not only was the blog wiped out, but the Nationals hit a home run with just one out left of the last innings to win 3-2.

Bank: 973.81 (-26.19)
SR: 1/2

Chudovski · Posted: Mon Mar 31, 2008 7:59 pm Post subject:

Chicago White Sox @ Cleveland Indians

This is the fourth straight opening day fixture between the two sides, Cleveland winning 12-4 last season with CC Sabathia pitching as he does today.

In the past two seasons Cleveland lead 22-15, although the Sox have won 5 of the past 7.

HISTORICAL

The record shows a 994-962 in favour of the Sox, although at Progressive Field it is 57-53 to the Tribe.

LAST SEASON

The Tribe finished with a 96-66 record, whilst Chicago ended 72-90 after a disastrous season. Cleveland defeated the Sox 11 games to 7, 5 games to 4 at Progressive Field.

PITCHERS:

The Tribe have their ace CC Sabathia on the mound, winner of the AL Cy Young award last season. CC posted a 19-7 record last season (3.21 ERA), going 2-0 (2.57 ERA) against the White Sox. In his career CC is 14-3 (3.48 ERA) against the Sox, and 2-0 in his past four head to heads against Mark Buerhle (today's CWS pitcher).

Mark Buerhle starts for the CWS. He posted a 10-9 record (3.63 ERA) in 2007 and went 1-1 (4.82 ERA) against Cleveland. In his career Buerhle is 8-11 (4.61 ERA) against Cleveland. He holds a 5-4 record (3.35 ERA) at Progressive Field, however.

SPRING TRAINING

ST saw Chicago go 11-19-3, but they were 2-9-3 in their last 14 matches. They posted a 5.66 ERA (2nd highest in AL). Cleveland ended Spring Training with a 15-14-3 record.

VERDICT

Cleveland Indians to win @ 1.6

Chudovski · Posted: Tue Apr 01, 2008 12:05 am Post subject:

Chicago White Sox 8-10 Cleveland Indians, so another win.

Bank: 1003.81 (+3.81)
SR: 2/3

Very slight profit, but today is the opening day of the season so plenty of time to go and by the end i'm confident of good profit.

Chudovski · Posted: Tue Apr 01, 2008 2:15 am Post subject:

Also backed LA Angels to beat Minnesota Twins @ 1.75 before play.

Currently 3-2 down though.

Inatimate1 · Posted: Tue Apr 01, 2008 4:04 am Post subject:

Hey Chud, unlucky with the Braves the other night, I watched the game and as the last innings came up I thought that the Braves would still sneak it, cheeky way to get their run though to tie the game up in the top of the 9th if you saw it, but Zimmerman stole the show with their first hit since the first innings Lose

Unlucky with the Angels tonight, but across town I think the Dodgers look very nicely priced to beat the Giants. Beat them last night quite easily with a hit rate of over .333, compared to .179 for the Giants. Didn't look at all comfortable really pitching or batting. They won't really want to be playing there again so soon. Just a shame that Five are showing the basketball

Good luck anyway, will be keeping a close interest as I like Baseball, great sport to watch to pass the time Cool

_________________
Top Football Tipster June 2006
7th Overall In The WC 2006 Competition
3rd in Cheltenham Festival Competition 2008

Chudovski · Posted: Wed Apr 02, 2008 4:26 am Post subject:

Evening/morning mate. Yeah, i thought the Braves would steal the win when they tied it as the Nats hadn't looked like scoring all match after their early 2 runs. Zims is a quality player though and he sure proved it with his HR.

I totally agree and have backed the Dodgers. The Giants are going to have a terrible season.

As for my blog, again i didn't have time to write up any reasoning in here or the tip blogs as i've been going to bed at 6-7am and not waking up until late for the past 5 weeks due to staying up to watch the NZ -v- Eng Test series, write my dissertation and now watch baseball, and today after waking up i had to get sorted and get down to Broadhall Way to watch Stevenage beat York 3-2 (we also saved a York penalty to stay 3-2 up) and have just finished watching my MLB team the NY Mets lose 5-4 in the 10th innings to Florida in what was almost a carbon copy of the Nats win on Opening night.

So i didn't have time to do any proper research at all so am not sure how these are going to do, but i've backed the BoSox (1.81), Mariners (1.54), Dodgers (1.60) and Padres (1.56, unfortunately didn't back them in time on the tipster comp) as i rate all three to have better squads and the pitching match-ups are fairly close, except in the Mariners case where i'd rate Felix a fair bit higher.

Chudovski · Posted: Wed Apr 02, 2008 6:54 am Post subject:

Ok, shall just update this before bed.

BoSox won 2-1
Padres won 2-1
Dodgers won 3-2
Mariners lost 5-4 having gone into the final innings 4-3 up.

So...

Bank: 1002.31 (+2.31)
SR: 5/8

A reasonable strikerate, but the returns make it hardly seem worthwhile, however i always have a lower strikerate and profits at the start of the season so am confident that in a few weeks it'll be much improved.

I should consider being stricter in my selections though, as 8 picks in just a couple of days of baseball is rather high, but i've been busy so not really had time to properly research so have maybe made selections i'd not otherwise have made. To be in profit (albeit slight) is good news consider that though. Also, a staking plan should be considered and investigated as that could dramatically improve profits.

More picks to come tomorrow hopefully, although i'm returning to Bristol for Uni tomorrow, so may not be able to get any up.

Chudovski · Posted: Thu Apr 03, 2008 5:14 pm Post subject:

White Sox (Danks) @ Indians (Westbrook)

The final match-up of this 3 game series, with the Tribe looking for the sweep having won 10-8 and 7-2.

On the mound for the Tribe is Jake Westbrook who went 6-9 (4.32 ERA) last year, in a season spoilt by injury. Westbrook is a quality pitcher though and if he stays injury free can regain his 2006 form where he went 15-10 (4.17) and 3-0 (1.69) against the CWS.

The Sox open with John Danks, 6-13 (5.50 ERA). He went 5-6 (4.62 ERA) prior to the All-Star game, however afterwards his record showed a 1-7 (7.11 ERA) quite possibly because it was his rookie season and batters had learnt how he pitches. He went 1-2 (5.49 ERA) against the Tribe last season.

The Tribe have started the season in great form with their offense in fine touch and have a better and more experienced pitcher on the mound, so must be favoured to take the sweep.

Verdict: Indians @ 4/7.

Chudovski · Posted: Fri Apr 04, 2008 1:32 am Post subject:

Pirates backed in-play @ 5/6.