DanWith's NBA Playoff Blog 08

[danwith]

The ultimate winner of the playoffs usually come from the top 2 of their respective conferences, only 2 in the last 16 years have come from outside. Houston Rockets were 6th in the west in '95 and went on to win following their '94 success and last years winners San Antonio Spurs finished 3rd in the west.
So the mostly likely winner should come from these four; Boston, La Lakers, Detroit and New Orleans; and i suppose we can also throw in reigning champions San Antonio who have again finished 3rd in the west.
Boston have a 80.5% win rate this season, 4/5 with this kind of percentage have gone on to win the playoffs the Mavericks last year are the team that didn't make it when they crashed out to the Warriors (their bogey team) in the first round. Also it should be noted Denver in 2007 had a 78% win rate and also lost in the 1st round. Both of those disappointments came in the west, which is stronger in depth and Boston's first round match is against Atlanta who are the poorest team to have made the playoffs.
Before looking at the stats i fancied the Lakers as they are looking strong at either end of the court but the west could throw up some surprises with the pedigree of the Spurs and Phoenix with Shaq.
But Boston stand out for me and 2/1 seem fair odds.

[danwith]

CLEVELAND CAVALIERS v WASHINGTON WIZARDS
GAME 1 -19th April

Cleveland meet Washington here for the 3rd consectutive season winnning the previous two, with a 4-0 series win last year, although the Wizards were without Areanas and Butler. I don't see the Cavs going as far as they did last year and this match should be a tight contest. In the regular season it's 2-2 between them with all been won by the home side,
Cavs winning 121-85 and 90-89 at their place,
and Wizards winning 105-86 and 101-99 at theirs.
The two most recent matchups have only had 2 points between them, I think Cavs will win game 1.

Starting Bank: 1000pts
100pts Cavs 1.67 @Boylesports

Closing Bank: 900pts

[danwith]

PHOENIX SUNS @ SAN ANTONIO SPURS
GAME 1 - 19th April

Last year they met in the second round where spurs won the series 4-2 and went on the win the championship.
This time the Suns have boosted their defense with Shaq O'Neal and this could go either way.
In the regaular season Phoenix won 3 to the Spurs 1.
I think with phoenix scoring power the addition of Shaq, the Suns are value here at 2.65

100pts Phoenix Suns 2.65 @Bet365

DALLAS MAVERICKS @ NEWORLEANS HORNETS
GAME 1 - 19th April

This is another close matchup and in the previous meetings its been won by the home side
I fancy another home win tonight and they can cover the handicap of 5. Also looks as though it could be a high scoring game

50pts New Orleans -5 1.9 @Bet365
50pts Over 192.5 Total Points 1.9 @Bet365

UTAH JAZZ @ HOUSTON ROCKETS
GAME 1 - 19th April

100pts Utah to win the series 1.43 Bet365
100pts Over 187 total points 1.91 Bet365

Closing Bank: 500pts

[danwith]

WIZARDS 86 - CAVALIERS 93

BET WON
RETURNS: 167pts

SUNS 115 - SPURS 117

Man I hate the Spurs, the Suns led for most of the game and then San Antonio kept fouling Shaq to send him to free throw line, Phoenix had to take him out and so weaken their defense, but still Phoenix should have won this, with 15 seconds to go Finlay threw a 3 pointer to send the game to overtime, and then in overtime with 3 seconds left Duncan hit a 3 pointer to sent it to double overtime. With a late drive by Ginobili, he won the game for Spurs. But thats why they win titles 'cus they grind out wins in clutch situations.

BET LOST

MAVERICKS 92 - HORNETS 104

I was impressed with the Hornets and Chris Paul had a great game with 35 points and 10 assist, he could well be the best point guard in the nba.

BETS WON
RETURNS: 190pts

JAZZ 93 - ROCKETS 82

1 BET WON 1 BET LOST
RETURNS: 143pts

New Bank: 1000pts

[danwith]

TORONTO RAPTORS @ ORLANDO MAGIC
GAME 1 - 20th April

Orlando should edge this encounter by score 100+, head to head its 2-1, at Orlando it was 102-87 to Orlando in the most recent game, and at Toronto it was 105-96 to the Magic and 110-127 to the Raptors both high scoring games. All three had 9+ point differances.
I think Orlando should win at home and cover the handicap.

100pts Orlando -7 1.91 @Bet365

DENVER NUGGETS @ LA LAKERS
GAME 1 - 20th April

I think la lakers will go deep in the playoffs, should at least make the next round, for denver its look like another 1st round exit.
The Lakers won all 3 against Denver in the regular season with 16.3 average point differance and +215 point totals.
Its hard not to look past the Lakers here.

100pts La Lakers for the series 1.14 Bet365
100pts La Lakers -8.5 1.91 @Bet365

PHILADELPHIA 76ERS @ DETROIT PISTONS
GAME 1 - 20th April

At first I thought detroit should win this series pretty easy and could be the team for Boston to watch out for in the East. But head to head though its 3-1 in the Sixers favour so actually this may not be a walk over for the pistons. It appears it will be low scoring with 3 of the head to heads under 170 total points, and it may be worth a punt on the 76ers on the handicap.

50pts Philadelphia 76ers +9.5 1.91 @Bet365
100pts Under 179.5 Total Points 1.9 @Bet365

ATLANTA HAWKS @ BOSTON CELTICS
GAME 1 - 20th April

Overall Celtic are comfortable favourites and should score 100+ points. Head to head Celtic won all three games this season average score 101-86.7. At home it was 106-83 and 98-88. With the handicap at 15.5 they can cover but don't like the odds, I do think Boston can win in four games though.

100pts Celtics to Win the Series 4-0 1.7 @BlueSq
(it was 1.91 at PaddyPower the other day now at 1.67)

Closing Bank: 450pts

[danwith]

RAPTORS 100 - 114 MAGIC

BET WON
RETURNS: 191pts

NUGGETS 114 - 128 LAKERS

BET WON
RETURNS: 191pts

76ERS 90 - 86 PISTONS

BETS WON
RETURNS: 285.5pts

HAWKS 81 - 104 BOSTON

Boston won pretty easy

TOTAL RETURNS: 667.5pts
NEW BANK: 1117.5pts

2 BETS PENDING...

[danwith]

TONIGHTS GAMES

WASHINGTON WIZARDS @ CLEVELAND CAVALIERS
GAME 2

Last years series was 4-0 and went 97-82 and 109-102 at Cleveland and then 98-92 and 97-90 at Washington. Lebron is expecting another rough game tonight but still managed 32 points on Saturday.
Areana's didn't practice yesterday but is expected to play.

I think it'll be same again and I think 1.91 available for -1.5 is good value, over 186.6 Total Points looks good, with only one of the 4 games in the regular season was under 190 and only the 1st game of the series last year was under 187, as was this seried first game.

100pts Cleveland Cavaliers -1.5 1.95 @Coral
100pts Over 186.5 Total Points 1.93 @Coral

UTAH JAZZ @ HOUSTON ROCKETS
GAME 2

Last years series went 4-3 to Utah, 84-75 and 98-90 to the Rockets at Houston, 81-67 and 98-85 to the Jazz at Utah, then 96-92 to the Rockets at Houston, 94-82 to Jazz at Utah and then 103-99 to the Jazz at Houston.

The Rockets are missing Yao Ming and Tracy McGrady needs help from his team mates for any chance on winning. The bookies have only 1 point between these two but I think the fact the Rockets are without Ming is a major factor and Utah can take a 2-0 lead here and if they do, look to take the series 4-0.

100pts Utah Jazz 1.97 @Coral
50pts Utah Jazz to Win the Series 4-0 3.75 @Bet365

Closing Bank: 767.5pts

[manafana]

real good blog mate, had 76ers last night finally get my playoffs going, id called it jazz v hornets and celtcs v 76ers, but i tink if wizards get past cavs they could cause celtics trouble.
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[danwith]

Thanks Man, thought the Cavs were looking good last night, Lebron was on form where as Areanas was off.

WIZARDS 86 - CAVALIERS 116

BETS WON
RETURNS: 388pts

JAZZ 90 - ROCKETS 84

BET WON
RETURNS: 197pts

TOTAL RETURNS: 585pts
NEW BANK: 1352.5pts

3 BETS PENDING...

[danwith]

TONIGHTS GAMES

DALLAS MAVERICKS @ NEW ORLEANS HORNETS
GAME 2

Home advantage is the key here and important for the Hornets to win, because if they lose, they then would lose home court advantage and they would have to win in dallas where they haven't won since January 1998. So far they've won all home games against the Mavericks this season by 4, 11 and 12, so I think again they can cover the handicap of -3.5, and all of the games were over 194 total points. With Avery Johnson wanting his Dallas team to better their scoring for this game, it should be a higher scoring game than the last.

100pts New Orleans -3.5 1.91 @PaddyPower
100pts Over 193.5 Total Points 1.92 @Coral

TORONTO RAPTORS @ ORLANDO MAGIC
GAME 2

Toronto will look to improve on the game 1, it seems they are gonna stick with playing Bargnani out of position at small forward to keep Turkoglu out and I don't think they have an answer for Dwight Howard who had 25 points with 22 rebounds in game 1. Have to go for another Magic win, looking at Toronto on the Road they are 16-25 and have 1 win from the last 10 on the road.

50pts Orlando Magic -6 1.95 @Coral

PHOENIX SUNS @ SAN ANTONIO SPURS
GAME 2

Going in on game 2 I think Spurs have the edge in that the Suns failed to kill the game off the other night. The Suns can win tonight but Bell has to do a better job on Ginobili. I think and hope Phoenix beat the dirty Spurs but I'm leaving this game alone.

Closing Bank: 1102.5pts

[danwith]

MAVERICKS 103 - HORNETS 127

BETS WON
RETURNS: 383pts

RAPTORS 103 - MAGIC 104

BET LOST

SUNS 96 - SPURS 102

Suns once again led at the half and then lost the game.

TOTAL RETURNS: 383pts
NEW BANK: 1485.5pts

3 BETS PENDING...

[danwith]

TONIGHTS GAMES

PHILADELPHIA 76ERS @ DETROIT PISTONS
GAME 2

Though losing game one the Pistons remain heavy favours for the series
at 1.17 with most firms. Sundays win was the Sixers 4th win in a row over Detroit, and Detroit only lost 7 games at home in the regular season (1 being to the 76ers). I think Detroit can level the series but 1.15 being offered is way too short for me and I don't think they can make the -10 handicap. I'd be more confident taking Phily +10 as in all their games against Detroit this season, Detroit scored an average of 85 points and in their only win over Phily they won 83-78.

75pts Philadelphia 76ers +10 1.91 @Bet365

ATLANTA HAWKS @ BOSTON CELTICS
GAME 2

Looking at both records and with the Celtic fans behind the team its a no contest. The bookies have Boston -15 and they should be able to cover that, I'm just a bit worried about complacity. In the four head 2 heads this season Celtic have won two by 10 and two by 23, so it's a fair handicap.

50pts Boston Celtics -15 1.91 @Bet365
100pts HT/FT Boston Celtics/Boston Celtics 1.13 @Bet365
PENDING... Boston Celtics to Win the Series 4-0 1.7 (now 1.46 @Betfair)

DENVER NUGGETS @ LA LAKERS
GAME 2

Lakers have won 8 straight at the Staples Centre and have a 16-2 record against the Nuggets. In the three games there this season Lakers have won by 28, 17 and 16. Denver will look to defend Gasol better, he got 7 dunks and 5 layups in game 1 and led points, rebounds and assists. I think Lakers can take a 2-0 lead here.

50pts LA Lakers -8 1.97 @Coral
PENDING... LA Lakers to Win the Series 1.14 (now 1.09 @Betfair)

Closing Bank: 1210.5pts