DanWith's NBA Playoff Blog 08

[danwith]

76ERS 88 - 105 PISTONS

BET LOST

HAWKS 77 - 96 CELTICS

BETs WON
RETURNS: 208.5pts

NUGGETS 107 - 122 LAKERS

BET WON
RETURNS: 98.5

TOTAL RETURNS: 307pts
NEW BANK: 1517.5pts

3 BETs PENDING...

[danwith]

TONiGHTs GAMEs

ORLANDO MAGIC @ TORONTO RAPTORS
GAME 3

With 2 poor first quarters, Sam Mitchell is looking to change his starting five but is keeping quiet about what he's thinking of doing. Toronto improved on game one but still couldn't contain Dwight Howard who had 29 points and 20 rebounds. Orlando are 27-14 on the road which is slightly better than Toronto's 25-16 at home. They have also won at Toronto in November 105-96 but lost there in February 127-110.
This game can go either way, but Toronto haven't managed to stop the Magic scoring 100+ so may have to out score them to win this like in february.

100pts Over 202.5 Total Points 1.91 @Betfred

CLEVELAND CAVALIERS @ WASHINGTON WIZARDS
GAME 3

Jamison, Caron Butler and Arenas need to find form for the Wizards to get their playoffs back on track here. They have won 8 of the last 10 at home to the Cavs 3-7 on the road. Both regular season meetings at Washington were won by the Wizards. So discounting the last two games the Wizards are worthy favourites here. But all the over-physical play seems to be doing more harm to them than good and Lebron hasn't been affected by the hard fouls, and scoring just the same as he's done in the regular season. Last year Cavs won game three 98-92 but Washington were missing Arenas and Butler. The bookies give the Cavs 5 points and if Cleveland don't win I think it'll be a tight game.

100pts Cleveland Cavaliers +5 1.91 @Bet365

HOUSTON ROCKETS @ UTAH JAZZ
GAME 3

Utah are back at home with a 2-0 lead. Last year in the same match up Utah returned home 2-0 down, they won game three 81-67 then the series 4-3, Utah have a strong 37-4 record at home, however the Rockets beat them last November here 106-95, More recently though Utah won 105-96 just over a week ago. I think Utah will win but see no value in odds on offer.

PENDING... Utah to Win the Series 4-0 3.75 (now 1.5 @Betfair)

Closing Bank: 1317.5pts

[danwith]

MAGIC 94 - 108 RAPTORS

BET LOST - 1 point short!

CAVALIERS 72 - 108 WIZARDS

BET LOST - what a turn around by the wizards

ROCKETS 94 - 92 JAZZ

BET LOST

BANK: 1317.5pts

2 BETs PENDING...

[danwith]

TONiGHTs GAMEs

DETROIT PISTONS @ PHILADELPHIA 76ERS
GAME 3 - SERIES TIED 1-1

The Pistons were fired up for game two and took charge of the glass winning the second chance opportunities, while Iguodala had a poor game and scored just 4 points.
Detroit are 25-16 on the road which is better than Phily's 22-19 at home
however, Phily won both meetings in Philadelphia 86-78 in January and 101-94 just over two weeks ago, although Detroit weren't at full strength.
I think there's value in the Sixers here and expect Iguodala to get more points.

50pts Philadelphia 76ers 2.93 @Coral

NEW ORLEANS HORNETS @ DALLAS MAVERICKS
GAME 3 - HORNETS LEAD 2-0

The Hornets haven't won in Dallas since January 1998 and the Mavs are a good 34-7 at home, 3 of the loses have come in their last 10 games.
Hornets are 26-15 on the road and lost in Dallas 89-80 and 111-98 during the regular season. As well as Chris Paul and the Hornets have done I think the Mavericks will win this one with their playoff experiance and with them being on their own court.

100pts Dallas Mavericks -5.5 1.91 @PaddyPower

SAN ANTONIO SPURS @ PHOENIX SUNS
GAME 3 - SPURS LEAD 2-0

The Suns need a win here if they have any aspirations to get by the Spurs. Phoenix are 30-11 at home and Spurs are 22-19 on the road.
The last time these met at Phoenix was in March when the Suns won 94-87. The Suns remain confident despite being 2 down and I think they will win here.

200pts Phoenix Suns 1.33 @PaddyPower

Closing Bank: 967.5pts

[danwith]

DETROIT 75 - 95 PHILADELPHIA

BET WON
RETURNS: 146.5pts

NEW ORLEANS 87 - 97 DALLAS

BET WON
RETURNS: 191pts

SAN ANTONIO 115 - 99 PHOENIX

BET LOST

TOTAL RETURNS: 337.5pts
NEW BANK: 1305pts

2 BETs PENDING...

[danwith]

TONiGHTs GAMEs

ORLANDO MAGIC @ TORONTO RAPTORS
GAME 4 - ORLANDO LEAD 2-1

Toronto are looking to tie the series at 2-2 as the motmentum switches to them. After two quick starts by the Magic in games 1 and 2, the Raptors bulit a 21 point lead by the half in game 3 on returning to Toronto. Toronto's two point guards ran the show on Thursday, Ford and Calderon combined for 39 points, 16 assists and 12 rebounds. This can go either way.

LA LAKERS @ DENVER NUGGETS
GAME 3 - LAKERS LEAD 2-0

Denver are a decent 33-8 at home and Lakers are 27-14 on the road. Lakers won 111-107 at Denver back in December. Bookies have the total points line at 230, all meetings in regular season was below this total, the last two games have totalled 240 and 229. I think Lakers will play a more defensive game in Denver and will keep the scoring down a bit.

50pts Under 230 Total Points 1.91 @Bet365
50pts LA Lakers 2.05 @Bet365
PENDING... LA Lakers to Win the Series 1.14 (now 1.06 @Betfair)

BOSTON CELTICS @ ATLANTA HAWKS
GAME 3 - CELTICS LEAD 2-0

Atlanta are 25-16 at home while Boston are 31-10. Last time these met in Atlanta was a few weeks ago and an under strength Celtics beat the Hawks 99-89. Boston will be looking to tie up the series as soon as possible and I think they will make the -8 handicap.

100pts Boston Celtics -8 1.95 @Coral
PENDING... Boston Celtics to Win the Series 4-0 1.7 (now 1.41 @Betfair)

HOUSTON ROCKETS @ UTAH JAZZ
GAME 4 - UTAH LEAD 2-1

I think Utah will win here but again don't like the 1.2 odds on offer, the handicap of -8 looks spot on so I'm not getting involved. Over 185 points look appealing as all three regular season games were over and in similar match ups.

75pts Over 185.5 Total Points 1.93 @Coral

Closing Bank: 1030pts

[danwith]

ORLANDO 106 - 94 TORONTO

LAKERS 102 - 84 DENVER

BETS WON
RETURNS: 198pts

BOSTON 93 - 102 ATLANTA

BETS LOST

HOUSTON 82 - 86 UTAH

BET LOST

NEW BANK: 1228pts

ONE BET PENDING...

[danwith]

CLEVELAND CAVALIERS @ WASHINGTON WIZARDS
GAME 4 - CAVS LEAD 2-1

After being beat 116-86 in game 2, the Washington managed to turn it round and won 108-72 in game 3 a turnaround of 66 points.
Although Arenas wasn't involved for long, Stevenson hit 5 three-points compared to Lebron's 0 from 4. The Wizards had 5 players in double figures compared to Cleveland who only had 2. The Wizards did a good job on Leborn in game 3, double teaming him they cut James's scoring to 22 points. Cleveland turned the ball over 23 times, more than games 1 and 2 combined. I'm go with the home team here, Lebron can't do it alone and with Arenas back the Wizards have the momentum.

100pts Washington Wizards 1.56 @Bet365

SAN ANTONIO SPURS @ PHOENIX SUNS
GAME 4 - SPURS LEAD 3-0

No team has come back from 3-0 down to win the series and when it does happen I don't expect it to be against this Spurs team. Tony Parker scored a high 41 points on friday night with 12 assists. Phoenix stopped him from getting the easy Lay ups but he hit jump shot after jump shot. Although the Suns are capable of getting a win today it's hard to have any confidence in them.

DETROIT PISTONS @ PHILADELPHIA 76ERS
GAME 4 - 76ERS LEAD 2-1

The old Pistons versus the young 76ers. Detroit committed 25 turnovers and missed 16 straight shots something you might expect from the inexperienced Sixers than the experienced Pistons. Theres a question mark over weather McDyess will play after having surgery to fix the broken nose he got the other night, and there's a question mark over Igoudala's form and when will it come good. The Sixers will keep home court advantage with a win here. and again are value.

50pts Philadelphia 76ers 3.26 @Coral

NEW ORLEANS HORNETS @ DALLAS MAVERICKS
GAME 4 - HORNETS LEAD 2-1

Jason Terry had a good game three, he did a good job guarding Paul and helped out on the offensive. The Hornets haven't won in Dallas for along time but I think if they get into their groove they can win tonight.

50pts New Orleans 3.03 @Coral
100pts New Orleans to Win the Series 1.42 @Bet365

Closing Bank: 928pts

[danwith]

CLEVELAND 100 - 97 WASHINGTON

BET LOST

SAN ANTONIO 86 - 105 PHOENIX

DETROIT 93 - 84 PHILADELPHIA

BET LOST

NEW ORLEANS 97 - 84 DALLAS

BET WON
RETURNS: 151.5

NEW BANK: 1079.5pts

2 BETs PENDING...

[danwith]

TORONTO RAPTORS @ ORLANDO MAGIC
GAME 5 - MAGIC LEAD 3-1

The Magic will be looking to close the series on home turf tonight. Raptors came within a shot of winning in game 2 and will feel capable of winning in Orlando. But Toronto are 16-25 on the road and have lost all 3 at Orlando this year.

75pts Orlando Magic -7.5 2 @Coral

BOSTON CELTICS @ ATLANTA HAWKS
GAME 4 - CELTICS LEAD 2-1

Atlanta caused an upset on saturday but I'm not expecting another one tonight. Boston were 31-10 on the road and won at Atlanta 99-89 in regular season.

100pts Boston Celtics -9 1.94 @Coral

LA LAKERS @ DENVER NUGGETS
GAME 4 - LAKERS LEAD 3-0

Denver were 33-8 at home in the regular season and managed to beat Boston 124-118 in february. Lakers are 5-0 against the Nuggets this season but these close out games aren't easy and I think we might see a fired up Nuggets tonight.

50pts Denver Nuggets 2.75 @Bet365
PENDING... LA Lakers to Win the Series

Closing Bank: 854.5pts

[danwith]

PROFIT and LOSS so far.

19th APR 0
20th APR +317.5
21st APR +285
22nd APR +133
23rd APR +32
24th APR -250
25th APR -12.5
26th APR -177
27th APR -48.5

TOTAL P/L +279.5

Started off well but have made some bad decisions of late. 200pts on Phoenix in game 3 was my singluar biggest loss as I was expecting the performance they put in a game late in game 4. Similiarly with Cleveland backing them on the handicap for game 3 expecting a close game which happpened in game 4.
Anyway, will try get back on track and build me bank up.

[danwith]

TORONTO 92 - 102 ORLANDO
ORLANDO MAGIC WIN THE SERIES 4-1

BET WON

BOSTON 92 - 97 ATLANTA

BET LOST

LA LAKERS 107 - 101 DENVER
LA LAKERS WIN THE SERIES 4-0

1 BET LOST
1 BET WON

RETURNS: 264pts
NEW BANK: 1118.5pts

1 BET PENDING...