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laying the favourite
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sportking
Group 2 Class


Joined: 26 May 2006
Posts: 200

PostPosted: Wed Apr 23, 2008 10:07 am    Post subject: laying the favourite

still trying to work this out, but my plan is laying the fav for 10pts to see if i can make a profit, so for today they would be:

perth
2.10 solway bee @4.6 lost (36.00
2.45 von galen@5.5 won (9.50
3.20 fleet street @3.65 won (9.50
3.55 all for the cause@7.8 won (9.50
4.30 bermuda pointe @7.6 won (9.50
5.05 silver steel@6.8 won (9.50
5.40 prince du beury @2.66 won (9.50

catt
2.00 syrup @3.9 won (9.50
2.35 eastern hills @5 won (9.50
3.10 planetarium @1.83 won (9.50
3.45 grand value @3.5 won (9.50
4.20 hernandos boy @4.6 won(9.50
4.55 killer class @2.54 won (9.50
5.30 dorn dancer @3.65 won (9.50

nott
2.20 puy darnac @3.95won (9.50
2.55 cabinet @3.55 lost (25.50
3.30 curtain call @1.94 lost (9.40
4.05 chief editor @1.4 lost 4.00
4.40 wasan @3.1 lost (21.00
5.15 ascot lime @3.3 won (9.50

thats the easy bit now to invest in a calculater to work it all out


Last edited by sportking on Thu Apr 24, 2008 8:09 am; edited 2 times in total
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sportking
Group 2 Class


Joined: 26 May 2006
Posts: 200

PostPosted: Wed Apr 23, 2008 2:07 pm    Post subject:

syrup lost so that means i win 3.90 is this right?
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princecap
Classic Winner


Joined: 02 Feb 2008
Posts: 515

PostPosted: Wed Apr 23, 2008 2:26 pm    Post subject:

Nope. I will try and explain laying:

If you Lay someone for 10 points, it means that if the horse loses, you WIN 10 points.

However, if the horse wins, you will lose points (not 10). Points lost will be (consider odds @ 3.9):

10*(3.9-1) = 10*2.9
= 29 points.

Perhaps not the best way to explain it, but still.

Also, you have to look at Lay odds instead of back odds if you wish to Lay a horse.

Hope this makes sense.
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Numbers and me, Its a love-hate relationship. I love them, they hate me!
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Betfairalfie
At Stud


Joined: 01 Mar 2005
Posts: 4809

PostPosted: Wed Apr 23, 2008 2:31 pm    Post subject:

If you are risking 10 GBP on each of those then your profit from your first winner (it lost the race);

10/(3.90-1) = 3.45 less 5% commission = 3.28

I see that you have passed the OLBG Betting School Laying Exam but it don't seem to have sunk in yet. It needs to before you start using real money Smile

If you are opneing a Betfair account use the OLBG link and your get some free betting money.

PS - blindly laying the Favs, at Betfair prices less 5% commission, will lose you money long term. In case you didn't know.
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sportking
Group 2 Class


Joined: 26 May 2006
Posts: 200

PostPosted: Wed Apr 23, 2008 2:37 pm    Post subject:

right i'm going to have to study this a lot more before starting anything,

off to look for a site for absolute beginers as i've got this all wrong

cheers for the help anyway

EDIT: have just found maria's laying system so i am going to read through it, i could be gone for sometime Very Happy
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sportking
Group 2 Class


Joined: 26 May 2006
Posts: 200

PostPosted: Wed Apr 23, 2008 4:16 pm    Post subject:

Relevant siblings" hold a less than 3% record over 1m at Nottingham, trainer hasn't had a winner for over 3 weeks, and had only 2 winners out of the last 70-ish races




how does she manage to get her prices matched??????????
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sportking
Group 2 Class


Joined: 26 May 2006
Posts: 200

PostPosted: Thu Apr 24, 2008 8:20 am    Post subject:

right i think i've got this sussed now, rather than doing 10pts total it's just 10 pts that makes it easier ( even though i wouldn't be doing that much)

yesterday i would have won 142.50 (thats with 5% comm)

and i would have lost 95.90

so i would have made 46.60

hopefully this is correct and i won't need any more help, but if you could tell me if i'm right or wrong it would be appreciated
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Betfairalfie
At Stud


Joined: 01 Mar 2005
Posts: 4809

PostPosted: Thu Apr 24, 2008 9:18 am    Post subject:

yes thats right.
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sportking
Group 2 Class


Joined: 26 May 2006
Posts: 200

PostPosted: Thu Apr 24, 2008 9:19 am    Post subject:

today's would be

font
2.20 fit to drive @3.7 (lost
2.55 nobody tells me @3.95 (lost
3.30 lupanar @2.72 (lost
4.05 jupon vert @3.4(lost
5.15 boardroom dancer @5.0 (lost
5.45 proud precence @7.0 (lost

bev
2.00 ron's princess @3.65 (lost
2.35 duke of toraine @2.96 (won
3.10 albaqaa @3.35 (won
3,45 rowen rider @5.4 (lost
4.20 franks alot @8.6 (N.R.
4.55 hepburn bell @3.5 (won
5.30 greyfriars abbey @2.7 (i think this will win but heyho) (won

perth
2.10 lazy darren @1.96 (won
2.45 billy and i @4.9(lost
3.20 tazbar @2.04(lost
3.55 standin obligation @5.5(lost
4.30 natian @1.54(won
5.05 pacha doudairies @4.6(lost

just to let pple know i'm not laying these just getting my head round how to work out winnings/losses at the moment, picking the faves was just the first thing that sprung to mind


Last edited by sportking on Fri Apr 25, 2008 9:57 am; edited 1 time in total
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sportking
Group 2 Class


Joined: 26 May 2006
Posts: 200

PostPosted: Thu Apr 24, 2008 9:20 am    Post subject:

cheers betfairalfie

next step finding a g ood system Laughing
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sportking
Group 2 Class


Joined: 26 May 2006
Posts: 200

PostPosted: Fri Apr 25, 2008 10:02 am    Post subject:

so yesterday

i would have won 110.95 (after comm)
i would have lost 100.10
so my profit was 10.85

would have been better just backing greyfriars abbey Laughing

right i'm of to buy a paper to see if i can get some losers (my own picks thistime)
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sportking
Group 2 Class


Joined: 26 May 2006
Posts: 200

PostPosted: Fri Apr 25, 2008 11:52 am    Post subject:

starting of with a bank of 300 (i wish) i will see how this goes, i've been trying to find maria's staking plan but lost it so if anyone knows what it was could they tell me i think it was something like 5% if between 1.1-3.5 3% 3.6-7.4 1% 7.5- 10

today's losers
sand
1.15 cobo bay @5.6
1.50 illustrious blue @8.4
2.25 chartist @7.2
3.00 charm school @1.98
3.35 sovereign's honour @6.8
4.10 captain webb @2.5
wolv
2.15 skadrack @1.8

dont know how much goes on each one till i get my staking plan worked out (if i cant find it i will stick to the above)
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