laying the favourite

[sportking]

cesare won @2.44 s.p so if i've worked this out right it's

1.44 x 3.36 = 4.83

then i had 2 n.r's and 3 losers so thats 5.90 less 5% = 29.5 ( would that be 29 or 30 i will say 30 for the time being) so i won 5.60

5.60 - 4.83 = 77

new bank 337.24

new staking plan 3.37 - 1.98 - 1.32

touch wood this is all correct but if not all help welcome

[sportking]

redcar
2.30 sloop johnb
3.00 spirit of a nation
3.30 island music
4.00 rowan lodge
4.30 full speed
5.00 jazenio
5.30 feeli foxy

i am now just going with s.p's so anything over 10's doesn't count

[Inatimate1]

Good going sportking, please don't stop though if you have one bad day, if you take the time to go through the thread by the infamous "Maria" which BFA posted, you will notice that she had many bad days, but still managed to pull through very successfully, I think that in the long run, this plan could definately work.
There's a post on a Betfair site where someone analysed the percentage of winning favourites and their return to SP, here's the link. They analysed meetings at each course and the percentage of winning favourites...

http://betting.Betfair.com/horse-racing/betting-strategy/post-113-231007.html

Very handy site if you are going to be laying favourites...

The biggest loss in terms of return to SP on the flat looks to be Sandown with 54.70%, and over hurdles at Aintree with 53.60%
Windsor looks to be the one to avoid, over both jumps and on flat the return was nearly 200% on the 2 meetings they decided to analyse, but in the majority, it seems over hurdles, the return to SP is under 100% as a whole, with only Warwick having a return to SP over 120%, and 7 tracks with a return to SP lower than 65%.
Once again, I could really see this working over time, and I would be happy to offer my insight, good luck
_________________
Top Football Tipster June 2006
7th Overall In The WC 2006 Competition

[sportking]

oops maybe i should change the name of this thread as i can see how it can be misleading i started off laying the fav's but betfairalfie said blindly laying fav's will lose money long term so i decided to start trying to pick my own losers.

does anyone know how to change the title of a thread?

just had a look at maria's thread, if we started of with same bank i.e 3000 after day 5

maria's bank 3111.11
my bank 3372.40

watch it will all go pete tong now

[sportking]

lost 1.83 today thats what i get for getting bigheaded

[sportking]

with 1 winner, 1 n.r and 5 losers i made a loss yesterday of 1.83, i still don't know how stevie thunder managed to lose but there you go

ling
2.10 moss likely
2.40 masaalek
3.10 lille ida
3.40 bentong
4.10 pinch of salt
4.40 racer forever
5.10 apache fort


new bank 335.24

staking plan stays the same

[sportking]

bad ending to the week with 3 1st's and 4 losers ended up 10.97 down

new bank 314.27

see ya monday

[sportking]

i have discovered this bet cannot be done with a starting bank of 300 you need a start of 500 to bet the mininum 2.00 so i have decided to start of with 3000 instead of 300 just to make my calculations easier
my bank now is 3142.70
my staking plan is 31.40 - 18.24 - 12.56
kempton
2.00 indian art
2.30 kinout
3.00 kings topic
3.30 french art
4.00 ejeed
4.30 rose bien
5.00 viva vettori
5.30 she's minnie

some of these might be near the 11 cut of point so if they go over they will be discounted

[sportking]

1 winner @ 9 , 1 n.r ,1 discounted as it went over 11 and 5 losers, so i won 93.75 inc 5% comm but lost 100.48 so lost 6.73 in total

new bank 3135.97
same staking plan
chep
2.10 truly fruitful
2.40 nisaal
3.10 filigree
3.40 having a ball
4.10 joined up writing
4.40 hazytoo

lets hope for a betterday today

[sportking]

better day yesterday with 1 n.r. and 5 losers winning me 70.46 inc 5% comm

new bank 3206.43
staking plan 32.02 - 19.20 - 12.80

chester
1.45 doncaster rover
2.15 sugar mint
2.45 double banded
3.15 king orchisios
4.00 moonquake
4.35 tighnabruaich (good one for the commentator)