BFA's Place Only Blog

[Betfairalfie]

A BFA punting blog

No promises about finding a Golden Egg system here but hopefully it doesn’t go off the rails completely and I stay interested enough to keep it going.

Focussing on UK Horses that seem to me to be good value to place. Concentrating on BF Markets that pay on 3 or more places, non-runners do not affect places.

I will post the tips as EW bets in the contest but in reality I just backing them on Betfair to place at odds quoted in tip comments. I will monitor P/L of EW versus place only using same stake. I will also track how the same stake applied 80% place 20% win on BF would have performed. I will also track how trading the place only bet would have done pre-event, at what I consider fair get-out odds, and in-play at 67% of pre-race bet odds.

Hope all that lot is clear. Let the fun begin

[Betfairalfie]

The only two found so far are in 7 runner races with NRs so I wouldn't back EW at bookies.

First came in 2nd in 3:20 @1.57 and the next selection would be Linda Green in 3:50 @2.04.

(update - drifted to 2.50 pre-race, unplaced. Postitis )

No real qualifiers yet.

[fairfranco]

alfie you bored of trading now....how long did it take?!

i hope your still doing your usual pre race bread and butter! the lady won't be happy if you start punting your cash away!!!

Good Luck

[Betfairalfie]

The bread and butter stuff continues, no worries FF.

[swashbuckler]

i seldom back horses now but will keep a eye on your progress alfie,
and if it seems successful i might try it

it can`t be any worse to what i am doing at the moment

best of luck

[Betfairalfie]

2:30 Goodwood - Formax (sadly another non-qualifier with the bookies only paying on first 2 places)

This seems to have a very solid place chance here, especially in the Betfair market which pays on 3 places despite non-runner. Looks better value to place than Robustian or the probable pace setter Speedy Sam.
BF prices 12.00 win and 2.30 place only – matched 14:12 (3 places)

Place only price, pre-race get-out @2.04 matched 14:23
BF place SP 1.92
in-play trade @1.80 matched 14:31 just after race start
RESULT – PLACED 2nd
Went as low as 1.67 in the in-play win market

[Betfairalfie]

Just the one today, entered in contest.

Bet 1

[Betfairalfie]

6th May
Bet 2 - 2:45 Chester Greenwich Meantime @12.50w and 3.05p
Finished 3rd in 2006, 1st in 2007 both times ridden by today’s jockey Paul Hanagan. Trainer has expressed doubts that it will be as ready as it was when winning FTO last year but as they pay on 4 places I will take that risk.
Place only price, pre-race get-out ? NO - never went much lower, drifted to 3.70 pre-race
BF place SP 3.60
in-play trade – only went as low as 2.80
RESULT – UNPLACED

Bet 3 - 3;15 Chester Invincible Force @ 8.00w and 2.80p
Already won 3 times here from 5 races, and has the required low draw. Betfair was playing up so I switched off, and didn't record later prices or in-play prices.
RESULT – UNPLACED

Bet 4 - 4:35 Chester Burn The Breeze @ 6.40w and 2.10p
The only one of the fancied runners who is likely to try and force the pace and that should be enough to get a place at this unique course. Price could be affected by the running of Changing Skies in the 2:15. Betfair was playing up so I switched off, and didn't record later prices or in-play prices.
RESULT – PLACED 3rd

So 2 placed from 4 bets and a very small loss from place only betting and a much larger loss from EW punting at the bookies. In-play trading the short races <9F seems a waste of time as they only get matched when they are successful.