Can someone do the maths for me???

JRD553 · Last edited by JRD553 on Wed May 07, 2008 10:55 pm; edited 1 time in total

Am i onto something? I have been looking at spread betting or multi-score backing (whatever it is called) recently and according to soccerstats.com this season in English football (for example only) the results 0-0, 1-0, 2-0, 2-1, 1-1 & 0-1 make up for almost 60% of all results. Now using a spread betting excel spreadsheet when i put in the correct score odds for the above results on the teams which are home favourites, the odds return profits of 75 - 110%. My idea would be say to pick 10 games, all of which the home team are slight favourites and neither teams maybe aren't great goalscorers and cover the above results for each game. Say 20 pts spread on each game at an average profit of say 90% then worst case scenario would hopefully be the average of 60% which is 6 out of 10 results at 90% profit...

So outlay is 200 pts, return is 6 x 38 = 228 or 28 pts profit.

Although i reckon with a few well picked games you could result in more than the average result...

Outlay is 200 pts, return from all 10 would be 380 or 180 pts profit???

Does this sound reasonable to anyone else???

I'm going to test it this weekend and see how i would of done, will post my choices here shortly...

JRD553 · Posted: Wed May 07, 2008 10:41 pm Post subject:

Ok couldn't find 10 i liked so i have picked 7 as i'm not going to touch any of the play offs, wrong time to be testing this but had to give it a go...

Sat 10th...

Motherwell vs Aberdeen
Rangers vs Dundee Utd
St.Mirren vs Gretna

Sun 11th...

Everton vs Newcastle
Portsmouth vs Fulham
Chelsea vs Bolton
Celtic vs Hibernian

Fingers crossed!!!

JRD553 · Posted: Tue May 13, 2008 4:06 pm Post subject:

Got 5 out of 7 correct last weekend which is over 70%, if i had had an initial outlay of 200 pts on an average win of 90% profit, i.e. 200/7 = 28.5*1.9 = 54.15 when multiplied by 5 correct is 270.75 or profit of 70.75 pts or 73.9% profit, not bad i'm reckoning but it's a shame nobody else seems to be with me on this...

mofo1888 · 2yo Joined: 16 Jul 2007 Posts: 2

I THINK YOU COULD BE ONTO SOMEHTING HERE
ARE YOU PLACING 6 BETS ON EACH MATCH THAT QUALIFIES?
SO THE LAST EXAMPLE WOULD HAVE RESULTED IN 42 DIFFERENT BETS?
AM I FOLLOWING U CORRECTLY

COULD YOU DESCRIBE IN MORE DETAIL WHAT YOU ARE DOING

ILL WORK WITH YOU ON THIS

SIDE NOTE:

I HAVE BEEN LOOKING AT THE CORNERS MARKET AND LAYING OVER 13 CORNERS AT ODDS OF 3 - CAN FLUCTUATE A FEW POINTS EITHER WAY

I HAVE BEEN USING SPORTING LIFE TO LOOK BACK AT LIVE ARCHIVE FOR CORNERS INVOLVING CERTAIN TEAMS - E.G CHELSEA - ONLY ABOUT 8% OF THEIR GAMES FINISHED WITH MORE THAN 13 CORNERS
THIS SEASON. THEY DEFEND WELL AND DONT USE OUT ANS OUT WINGERS
IM SHOWING A PROFIT SO FAR WILL KEEP YOU POSTED AND MAYBE START A THREAD OF MY OWN

MARK

JRD553 · Posted: Wed May 14, 2008 10:39 am Post subject:

That's it mate yeah, i'm going to try and carefully pick 10 games each weekend that i think will result in one of those 6 six scores then cover the six correct scores for each of them. According to stats from soccerstats.com, law of averages says i will get at least 60%(or 6 out of 10) of them correct but i think a higher percentage is easily achievable, i mean i picked 7 games on the last day of the season and got 5 of them right!!! Even with 6 games out of 10 correct you will at least cover the bet, but normally make a small profit, anything after that then is all bonus!!!

mofo1888 · 2yo Joined: 16 Jul 2007 Posts: 2

there is only one problem i can see

THE F***ING SEASON IS OVER! Crying or Very sad

oh well i suppose we will have to wait and try this at euro 2008

whats the staking plan and do you have a spreadsheet set-up to calculate how much you put on for each correct score?

bospheros · Group 3 Class Joined: 16 Mar 2008 Posts: 65

its called dutching, there is a calculator which will tell you what to bet:
http://www.oddschecker.com/betting-tools/dutching-calculator.html

i like the idea of dutching correct scores, i'll probably have a proper crack at it next season.

JRD553 · Posted: Thu May 15, 2008 6:06 am Post subject:

Mmmmmmmm!!!! Denise van Outen, i like the idea of doing a bit of dutching myself boys, haha, i'll probably dabble a bit during euro 2008 but won't put any serious money on, then come the start of next season i may do the bets theoretically for first 3 weeks to see how teams settle in and then go for it. I'm thinking of using £20 a game spread over the 6 scores, that's £200 in all, hoping to near double it each week, i can then either increase the stakes as i win or keep to £200 and use the profit as a reserve in case one week it all goes pear shaped, haha. Although will probably do both, i.e. increase the stakes after i have my reserve in the bank.

thatsa donkey · Classic Winner Joined: 06 Jul 2005 Posts: 661

JRD,

Hi, does this only work on the english leagues, surely some of the other leagues around the world will have similar results. Just because the english season is over is no reason to give up making money throughout the summer.

Donkey. Fingers Crossed

JRD553 · Posted: Fri May 16, 2008 12:52 pm Post subject:

No i would say that as long as you can get the stats on whatever league it is to find out what the most frequent scores are then it should work for any league. What leagues play on through the summer tho?

Betfairalfie · At Stud Joined: 01 Mar 2005 Posts: 4666

Not convinced about this, as you all may have guessed, but 2 points to raise in a positive spirit.

Dutched prices. If I put those scores in my ducthing calculator for CL Final (MU = home team) I get 34% return (if one is right) not 90%. Am I doing it wrong?

Hope you guys trying this open plenty of accounts (using OLBG freebies) and take advantage of best prices. A lot of variability out there. BlueSq and Boyles seemed best for CL Final prices.

	Working together to beat the Bookies!