Joined: 06 May 2005 Posts: 6133 Location: Skipton, North Yorkshire
Posted: Thu Apr 23, 2009 10:40 pm Post subject: KanKeano's Football Blog
"Whether you're a player, manager, trainer, director, supporter, reporter, kit man or tea lady, football possesses the power to make the week ahead sparkle with a sense of joyous well-being. No play, movie, TV programme, work of literature or music induces such emotion on a weekly basis. We curse football for having this power but, conversely, it is football's power to corrupt the emotions and senses that is the addictive and enduring appeal of the game. It's an intangible power,existing somewhere out in the ethers. It is the heart of the game." - Danny Blanchflower
I know it's a strange time to start a new football blog, just as the season is coming to a climax but there is Scandanavian football which runs through the summer and internationals to bet on. Next month the youth tournaments start so there will be plenty of betting opportunities and it should keep me in full swing until the new season starts in August.
I will be using this blog to trail a new system I've been using for the last 6 weeks with some good results. It's based on the sides last 5 league match form [home matches for home sides, away matches for away sides] and the H2H results over the last 6 seasons at that venue. All odds will be taken from 1 of 6 bookmakers and Betfair as I tend to find they consistently offer the best odds:
Remember if you are thinking about taking an account with one of the above please use the links on the site to open them. There are some great opening offers and you can help the site generate the funds for the upkeep of an excellent site and tipster competition.
The starting balance of the system will be 1,000pts and the maximum stake of each tip will be 10% of the bank. Each stake will based on the perceived value of each tip.
I shall also have a seperate bank for my antepost/season bets and I shall also use this space to post my team ratings. _________________ "Statistics are like mini-skirts .. they give you good ideas but hide the most important parts." > One-A-Day Football Challenge for January now open.
Last edited by KanKeano on Fri Jun 19, 2009 8:01 pm; edited 16 times in total
Joined: 06 May 2005 Posts: 6133 Location: Skipton, North Yorkshire
Posted: Fri Apr 24, 2009 8:19 pm Post subject:
Friday 24th April
Thanks OT. Hopefully I can keep this blog going unlike my other efforts!
It's crunch time for many teams up and down the country as most of the football league sides play their penultimate games of their league campaigns. Many issues will be resolved come 5pm tomorrow night. Fingers crossed we can make some money out the games whilst watching the results come in with intrigue.
The system currently covers all the English leagues down to the Conference, German 1.Bundesliga, Spanish Primera as well as the Scottish Prem. Add to that the Scandanavian top divisions in Finland, Sweden and Norway and it generally highlights between 4-5 decent value bets each Saturday but tomorrow it just has two from the English Premiership. However, there afre some already highlighted for Sunday and beyond so here goes with the tips for tomorrow.
System-0001/25-04 FA Prem - Everton v Man City
Tip:Everton win - 1.83 @ Paddy Power [Stake - 6pts] [KK's odds - 1.73 / Value 6%]
Everton have sit comfortably in the top 6 in the league and now have an FA Cup Final too look forward to come the end of May. Despite fielding a weakened side at Stamford Bridge on Wednesday night they still held a powerful Chelsea side to a 0-0 draw. They have not been beaten at Goodison Park since an on-form Villa side triumphed 3-2 there, back in December, whilst City's 'achilles heel' this season has been there awful away form. Just one win all season on the road and once again they will be without Craig Bellamy, Shaun Wright-Phillips, Nigel De Jong and Pablo Zabaleta. On loan Jo is unable to play against the club which loaned him to Everton whilst Marouane Fellaini may return to the side after missing the visit to Chelsea. Everton have beaten City in 3 of their last 4 visits to Goodison Park and if factor in City's away form and their injury list this looks a decent 1st bet for the system.
System-0002/25-04 FA Prem - Man United v Tottenham
Tip:Man United win - 1.49 @ BetChronicle [Stake - 9pts] [KK's odds - 1.37 / Value 9%]
Whilst I don't generally like betting on any match involving my side I've got to feel that this is a decent bet. After all, based on this seasons results, Tottenham are a middle of the table side and you wouldn't generally find the bookies being so generous with United being at home and having a 14-1-1 record at Old Trafford so far this season. That said Tottenhams record against sides in the top half of the table is pretty good considering the start they had [just 4 defeats in 16 league games] and if you take it further we have not lost to any of the top 4 [2 wins, 4 draws]. However, with Man United seemingly destined to win this years title and our poor record at Old Trafford [Gary Lineker scored the last winner there for us - although Pedro Mendes would argue with that ]it seems logical to take a home win.
_________________ "Statistics are like mini-skirts .. they give you good ideas but hide the most important parts." > One-A-Day Football Challenge for January now open.
Last edited by KanKeano on Sat Apr 25, 2009 12:24 pm; edited 1 time in total
Joined: 06 May 2005 Posts: 6133 Location: Skipton, North Yorkshire
Posted: Sat Apr 25, 2009 5:29 pm Post subject:
Saturday 25th April
Well good start to the blog with the 1st loser! The end of the season can be a bit of a minefield when it comes to systems, with teams incentives to perform to par under question. Nevermind, we shall persevere with tomorrow’s selections in the hope that it’s a different day. Congratulations to Wolves who go into the Premiership as Champions, Peterborough who collect their 2nd successive promotion and also Andy Scott at Brentford who return to League 1 after a couple of seasons.
System-0003/26-04 FA Prem – Arsenal v Middlesbrough
Bit of risk here that Arsenal’s focus will be on the midweek Champions League match but the system says these is a good bet so it’s in. Arsenal are on a long, 19 match unbeaten run in the league having not lost since November. They were unlucky not to beat Liverpool midweek, at Anfield, and with 3rd place in the league automatically qualifying for the group stage in next season’s Champions League, Wenger will not want to lose any further ground to Chelsea. Middlesbrough have been poor for most of the season, having won just twice in their last 21 league matches. Boro generally lift their game against the top 4 and they have drawn on their last 2 visits. However, it’s hard to see how they will get anything tomorrow on the back of 9 successive away defeats.
System-0004/26-04 Ger 1.Bundesliga – Cottbus v Wolfsburg
At the start of the season I backed Wolfsburg for the UEFA Cup. I’d seen their improvement under Felix Magath and fancied them to put in a good shift in Europe. So their recent form in the Bundesliga has got me sick…wished I’d backed them for the title instead of Europe now! They are currently on a run of 10 straight league wins and could extend their lead at the top of the table with a win over 2nd from bottom Cottbus. Energie have 2nd worst home record in the league and have lost 6 of their last 7 league matches. Wolfsburg have only won 4 on the road [their last 4] but they have won on 2 of their last 3 visits here and they come into this match as the league’s top scorers with 62 goals, hoping to add to this against a Cottbus side who have failed to keep a clean sheet in their last 15 matches.
System-0005/26-04 Conference – Rushden & D v Woking
Tip:Rushden & D win – 2.00 @ Coral [Stake - 20pts] [KK's odds – 1.66 / Value 20%]
These matches are always hard to call at the end of the season with nothing riding on them. But with Woking’s relegation now confirmed and the home side safely ensconsed in midtable we may just get a festival of football down at Nene Park. Ex-Tottenham defender, Justin Edinburgh, took over the club back in October but has over seen a mixed bag of results. They have lost just 4 in the last 14 and they have won 4 of their last 6 at home. _________________ "Statistics are like mini-skirts .. they give you good ideas but hide the most important parts." > One-A-Day Football Challenge for January now open.
Joined: 06 May 2005 Posts: 6133 Location: Skipton, North Yorkshire
Posted: Sun Apr 26, 2009 7:09 pm Post subject:
Sunday 26th April
How apt that I posted that picture of the calamity that befell us at Old Trafford back in 2005. As you can tell I'm still seething over the injustice of the penalty call on Saturday night and my hatred of Man United will never subside! However, I did back them to win the match but that's no comfort.
In the Conference Burton finally sealed their place in the football league but not with the win their fans had hoped for. If ever the phrase 'stumbling across the line' was more apt it has got to be in describing Burton's promotion. They managed to blow a 19 point lead in the last 10 weeks of the season, including losing their last 2 league matches, to finish just 2pts above Cambridge, who must be kicking themselves after drawing 0-0 at home. At least Rushden & Diamonds came in for the system after Wolfsburg's poor showing at Cottbus.
As for the system it only highlighted one match tomorrow in the Finnish Veikkausliiga but there is no value in the odds so there will just be a quick round up to post where I am after 5 tips.
System
- Bets: 5
- P/L: +9.42pts
- LSP: +0.02
- ROI%: +13.46
- Balance: 1,009.42pts _________________ "Statistics are like mini-skirts .. they give you good ideas but hide the most important parts." > One-A-Day Football Challenge for January now open.
Joined: 06 May 2005 Posts: 6133 Location: Skipton, North Yorkshire
Posted: Wed Apr 29, 2009 10:45 pm Post subject:
Wednesday 29th April
Eng Conference playoffs
It's Conference playoff time and the big prize is a place in the football league. This is something the teams have been striving for for 9 months and now 2nd - 5th are now 3 games from the professional structure.
The 4 teams involved are Cambridge, Histon, Torquay and Stevenage. You have two former league sides and two sides who have never played in the top 4 divisions before. My team ratings are below:
Cambridge United [Index: 1350]
Finished 2nd for the second season running. This is their 4th attempt of getting out of this division after relegation back in 2004/05. Their failure to beat Altrincham cost them dear on the last day of the season and they lost 2 and drew 1 of the last 5 league matches. They are my highest rated team in the playoffs but 2nd placed sides have only won 1 of the last 6 places available in the football league and they have failed to beat any of the teams with them in the playoffs this season.
After rising through the divisions their 2nd conference season has ended with a top 3 position. They finished 7th in the league last season they seem a progressive side and built their season on a formidable home record. Their results toward the end of the seaon tailed off a little but 4 of the 6 sides to gain promotion through the playoffs since their existence at this level have finished in Histons position.
The worst rated team in my ratings after winning just 3 of the last 7. They participated in the playoffs last season in their first since relegation in 2006-07 and the last 3 sides to gain promotion through the playoffs have participated in the previous year [Cambridge & Torquay appeared last season]. They are unbeaten against the other 3 sides in the playoffs this season and they also beat the Champions home and away. Could it be they are a big game side?
The 5th placed team in the playoffs but along with Cambridge are probably the form team coming in to this. The 5th placed side have reached the final 4 times but are yet to triumph in the winner takes all match. They have lost just twice in their last 25 league matches and they have previously participated in the playoffs back in 2004/05, losing to Carlisle in the final.
Verdict: The 3rd and 5th placed sides have traditionally got the upper hand in the playoff semi-finals. Each have reached the finals 4 times with the 3rd placed side winning every final between the 2. The two former league sides are favourites due to their pasts in the league but Histon's home form alongside the trend of 3rd placed teams makes their odds appealing.
Tip: Histon promotion: 4.50 @ BlueSq [Stake - 10pts] _________________ "Statistics are like mini-skirts .. they give you good ideas but hide the most important parts." > One-A-Day Football Challenge for January now open.
Good Reading in this Blog I forgot about the Conference Play-Offs and I haven't looked that much at the recent form of the 4 teams involved but at 1st glance I would like Torquay as I think they might be fully prepared for the Play-Offs this season compared to last year.They led for most of the year last year until around Feb/Mar (I think ) before Aldershot hit the Top and ran away with the Conference and I would imagine their confidence would have been drained going into the Play-Offs last year because they would have been expecting to go straight up after the start they got off too in the League where as this year it was all about Burton............Just my thoughts but as I said earlier...I haven't checked out their recent Form so Maybe I am talking Dung
Joined: 06 May 2005 Posts: 6133 Location: Skipton, North Yorkshire
Posted: Thu Apr 30, 2009 8:14 pm Post subject:
Thursday 30th April
Hi Swash
Torquay are a good shout but I couldn't justify backing them at their odds, especially on recent form but they are unbeaten against the others this season and they did reach the playoffs last time. Something the last 3 winners have done.
I've been looking at the system selections for this weekend and as there are none for tomorrow night I'll get on with posting Saturdays selections:
System-0006/02-05 League 1 – Leeds v Northampton
Tip:Leeds win – 1.97 @ Betfair (1.92 after BF commission] [Stake - 32pts] [KK's odds – 1.45 / Value 32%]
The police must be dreading the upcoming playoff semi-finals with the meeting of Millwall and Leeds already confirmed, bar a 10 goal turnaround on the MK Dons. Even though their playoff opposition is just about confirmed they will still want to win this, to try and overtake Millwall and get the all important home match in the 2nd leg of the playoffs. Leeds have won 10 out of the last 14 league matches under Simon Grayson and they have turn Elland Road into a fortress winning the last 10 there. They have sold over 30,000 tickets for Saturday and anybody that has ever been there will know how intimidating it can be for away sides. The Cobblers travel up North in search of a point which will see them safe for another season at this level. They have lost 12 times in the last 21 league matches, including 4 in the last 6 away from home. They were beaten 3-0 at Leeds last season and Grayson has stated that they will be using the game in preparation for the playoff semi-finals. Jermaine Beckford [shockingly omitted from the PFA League 1 team of the year] has scored 12 in his last 10.
What a season it's the Dons as they look to promotion from League 1 at the 1st attempt. Peterboro may have turned the table on the Div 2 Champions from last season but Roberto Di Matteo can be proud of his 1st season in management. They have won 13 times on the road, including their last 3 and they need a point to secure home advantage in the 2nd leg of the playoff semi-final. Hereford came up with the Dons last season but they have to operate on a different financial level. Whilst the Dons can afford to dine at the top of the table in this league Hereford have to rely on the loan system and free agents to build their squads. In his 14 year tenure as Bull boss Graham Turner has spent £40,000 in transfer fees for players! That is truly amazing and he's taken them from the conference into League 1. This season has been a disappointment as relegation is already confirmed and showed that last season they were literally punching far above their weight. They come into this match on the back of 12 defeats in their last 14 league matches
As the season comes to end it's a case of getting of forgetting about it and starting a fresh for these two. They are both safe now but for most of the season they have been toiling at the wrong end of the table. Barnet have lost just once at home since November and find themselves 2 places above a Port Vale side who have failed to win a match in their last 8 and are in turmoil after over 100 fans protested for manager Lee Glover to be sacked at the weekend. They will also be without captain Sam Stockley who has an operation on his eye after complaining about double vision. _________________ "Statistics are like mini-skirts .. they give you good ideas but hide the most important parts." > One-A-Day Football Challenge for January now open.
Joined: 06 May 2005 Posts: 6133 Location: Skipton, North Yorkshire
Posted: Fri May 01, 2009 8:34 pm Post subject:
Friday 1st May
As I've posted Saturdays selections already I'll take the opportunity tonight to post my team ratings for sides in the Eng Leagues.
Eng Premier Ratings
2289 > Liverpool
2287 > Man United
2252 > Chelsea
2216 > Arsenal
2095 > Everton
2054 > Aston Villa
2036 > Fulham
2026 > Tottenham
2004 > West Ham
1989 > Man City
1972 > Blackburn
1946 > Bolton
1941 > Wigan
1933 > Portsmouth
1931 > Stoke
1896 > Newcastle
1886 > Middlesbrough
1871 > Sunderland
1843 > West Brom
1842 > Hull
As you can see Liverpool are still rated the top team in the country but this doesn't count for much as I believe Man United will wrap up the title soon. I've also been playing about with a predictor based on results from the Premier League in the last 2 seasons and the sides ratings. The results are below:
88 > Man United
84 > Liverpool
80 > Chelsea
73 > Arsenal
63 > Aston Villa
60 > Everton
52 > Fulham
51 > Tottenham
51 > West Ham
50 > Man City
47 > Wigan
45 > Stoke
44 > Bolton
43 > Portsmouth
43 > Blackburn
39 > Hull
38 > Sunderland
36 > Middlesbrough
36 > Newcastle
31 > West Brom
I can't see much movement now at the top of the table. Man United should wrap up the title with Liverpool in 2nd. It's predicted Fulham to hold off the challenge of the others to take the last European spot in 7th whilst the bottom 3 should stay the same. As there is not much value left in the season bets with only 4 matches left it doesn't point out any current bets but it will be interesting to see how accurate it is over 4 matches. Hopefully at the start of next season I can use it to have a few bets on the points spreads and integrate it into the lower divisions.
Sheffield United are the top dogs in the Championship at the moment but the noticeable thing is that any of the sides promoted to the Premiership next season are set to struggle. This just highlights the gap still between the two divisions and it will be a long hard toil for these sides. Sheffield United would currently be 3rd from bottom if they were in the Premiership. Last season the promoted clubs had ratings of
Another team who fare well in the ratings but miss out on a playoff place are Preston. They are currently rated 1820 whereas playoff hopefuls Cardiff and Burnley are rated below 1800...similar to Derby and we all know what happened to them.
According to my ratings promoted Leicester should take to the Championship like a duck to water. They have won League 1 well and are already rated midtable against the other Championship sides. A bit of investment and they could be an outside bet for the playoffs. Leeds rated 2nd look a strong bet for a successful playoff campaign. As for relegated Hereford, see the ratings below, could they be set for a slide into the Conference?
_________________ "Statistics are like mini-skirts .. they give you good ideas but hide the most important parts." > One-A-Day Football Challenge for January now open.
Joined: 06 May 2005 Posts: 6133 Location: Skipton, North Yorkshire
Posted: Sat May 02, 2009 11:08 pm Post subject:
Saturday 2nd May
If anyone was doubting Barca's Primera credentials I think we can safely say they will be champions this season after a wonderful 6-2 in Madrid tonight. The last month has been littered with exciting games from around the world and this was another one. It may also mean the end of Juande Ramos' reign as he strives to get the permanent job as they have been found wanting in their two most important matches since taking over; tonight and the CL games against Liverpool.
Elsewhere Man United took another stride towards a third consecutuive title whilst the sides at the bottom of the table all lost again. With Hull, Newcastle & Sunderland playing tomorrow and Monday you think they have the advantage but the way it is going it may take just one win for one of them to stay up. I honestly believe that the bottom six sides are that poor that none of them may win another game this season. What's the odds of Newcastle and Boro drawing when they meet next week?
In League 1 the playoff semi-final between Leeds and Millwall has been confirmed and Scunthorpe secured their lace with a late goal at home to Tranmere. I was a little worried about the MK Dons, as it was my biggest bet yet with the system, and on a 'dead rubber' but the form bore out and they nicked a late winner.
Tomorrow I just have one tip, which comes in Spain.
Mallorca have won 4 of their last 6 league matches at home whilst losing just once home and away in the league since Jan. At that point they residing in the bottom 3 of the Primera but the run has seen them into midtable and the coach Manzano has told his players another win will guarantee their safety for another season.
Getafe are currently just above the relegation zone and will have new coach Miguel at the helm for this match. They have won just once on the road in their last 13 away matches and they have lost 7 of 9 home and away. They have also tasted defeat 3 times in the last 4 visits here.
System
- Bets: 8
- P/L: +95.36pts
- LSP: +1.20
- ROI%: +60.4
- Balance: 1,095.36pts _________________ "Statistics are like mini-skirts .. they give you good ideas but hide the most important parts." > One-A-Day Football Challenge for January now open.
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(c) 2002-2010 Online Betting Guide (OLBG), part of Invendium Ltd 21/03/10 11:06:14
]it seems logical to take a home win.
