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Liverpool1985
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PostPosted: Mon Jun 22, 2009 8:44 pm    Post subject:

FF Jaro vs IFK Mariehamn (Preview)

FF Jaro
- Their home stats this season are W3 D1 L0 GF11 GA2. Only RoPS can match FF Jaro’s statistics of only conceding 2 home goals this season.
- Are in good form of late and have won their last 3 matches in the Veikkausliga.
- Despite FF Jaro having a very good home record at the moment, they have played some of the poorest competition available in this league (KuPS, MyPA, RoPS and JJK).
- Jaro have been winning at half time in all 4 of their home matches this season. Their home stats at half time are W4 D0 L0 GF6 GA1.
- They have scored an average of 1.8 goals per match this season, and have conceded an average of 1.2 goals per match.
- FF Jaro have kept 4 clean sheets (40%) in their 10 games in the Veikkausliga.
- 5 of Jaro’s 10 matches this season have finished over 2.5 goals (50%). 2 of their 4 home matches.
- They are proudly 3rd in the current form tables with a record of W4 D0 L2 GF14 GA9.

Mariehamn
- Their away stats this season are W1 D3 L1 GF3 GA3. Their only away defeat coming against HJK Helsinki.
- IFK are also in great form of late and are unbeaten in their last 7 matches in the Veikkausliga and are proving a very difficult team to break down.
- Only 3 of IFK’s 11 league games (27%) this season have finished over 2.5 goals. And none of their 5 away matches have been over 2.5 goals. - They tend to play very conservatively away from home.
- So far this season they have scored an average of 1.18 goals per match, and have conceded an average of 0.55 goals per match. And Mariehamn have let in less goals than any other team in this league, 6 in total.
- They have kept an impressive 7 clean sheets from there 11 games this season.
- IFK are 5th in the form tables with a record of W3 D3 L0 GF6 GA2. They are the only team in this league to have not lost in their last 6 league games.

Both these teams are 1st and 2nd in the half time table and seem to produce their best football in the first 45 minutes of matches.

Head To Head
This stat favours the away side here. FF Jaro actually won the last meeting between these to, at Mariehamns ground 2-1 in August of last year. But overall IFK Mariehamn have the better stats. In the last 10 head to head matches between these two Mariehamn have won 5 of them, 4 have been draws, and 1 FF Jaro victory. They are unbeaten at FF Jaro’s stadium in their last 4 visits.

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PostPosted: Mon Jun 22, 2009 9:32 pm    Post subject:

TPS vs RoPS (Preview)

TPS
- Their home stats this season are W1 D3 L1 GF4 GA3. Their only home lose came against League leaders Haka.
- Are in good form at the moment and they are unbeaten in their last 5 matches in all competitions.
- When TPS have been playing at home their stats at half time are actually quite impressive, with stats of W2 D3 L0 GF2 GA0. TPS and Mariehamn are the only teams who have not conceded a first half goal this season when playing at home.
- They have scored an average of 1.5 goals per match this season, and have conceded an average of 0.9 goals per match.
- TPS have kept 5 clean sheets (50%) in their 10 games in the Veikkausliga.
- 4 of TPS’s 10 matches this season have finished over 2.5 goals (40%). But only 1 of their 5 home matches.
- They are currently top of the six match form tables with a record of W4 D1 L1 GF11 GA4.

RoPS
- Their away stats this season are W0 D1 L5 GF4 GA15. Their only away point coming against fellow relegation candidates JJK.
- Are in terrible form at the moment (especially away from home) and they have still not beaten anyone but KooTeePee and KuPS in the last two season away from home.
- When RoPS have been playing away from home their stats at half time are terrible, with stats of W1 D0 L5 GF2 GA9.
- They have scored an average of 0.56 goals per match this season, and have conceded an average of 1.89 goals per match.
- RoPS have kept 2 clean sheets in their 9 games in the Veikkausliga. Both of these coming at home.
- 3 of RoPS’s 9 matches this season have finished over 2.5 goals (33%). 3 of their 6 away matches.
- They are currently 13th in the six match form tables with a record of W1 D1 L4 GF4 GA11.

Head To Head
These stats are massively in the favour of TPS. Of the last 14 matches between these two teams with TPS playing at home, RoPS have not won any of these. 9 TPS wins and 5 Draws. And over the course of the head of head meetings this fixtures tends to go in the home teams favour. Of the last 14 meetings at this ground RoPS have only managed 7 goals. An average of 0.5 goals per game.

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PostPosted: Mon Jun 22, 2009 9:54 pm    Post subject:

FC Honka vs KuPS
As per the preview I fancy a home win here. The goals market will be very unpredictable as both teams have been shaky at the back. They are the top goalscorers in the division and the head to head stats are massively in their favour. The price is not great but its about what I would expect.

Tip: FC Honka

FF Jaro vs IFK Mariehamn
Fancy an upset here according to the odds being offered. FF Jaro have been the stars of this blog so far but now I am going to back against them. They have had it very easy at the start of this season and have won the home games expected of them, against weaker opposition. IFK Mariehamn have been very impressive this campaign and their playing style is proving hard for teams to play against. They have not lost to Jaro on their ground in their last 4 visits. And all 4 of these visits have also been early on in the season, around about the same date as this fixture. The price is very big on the away side.

Tip: IFK Mariehamn

TPS vs RoPS
TPS are the form team in this league and have not conceded a first half goal at home. And it is partly down to that sort of resilience that I expect them to see off RoPS. RoPS have continued to struggle this season, and have mainly been affected by their inability to pick up points away from home. TPS have not been brilliant at home this season but looking at the head to head meetings tend to see this fixture through.

Tip: TPS

Bet 7: FC Honka @ 1.25 (Bet365)
Stake: 250pts
Return Profit If Wins: 62.50pts

Bet 8: IFK Mariehamn @ 3.20 (Bet365)
Stake: 125pts
Return Profit If Wins: 275pts

Bet 9: TPS @ 1.36 (Bet365)
Stake: 125pts
Return Profit If Wins: 45.45pts

Closing Balance: 4476.25pts


I have no bet from the Haka game but will post the write up tomorrow at some point. I understand if IFK do not prevail then another small loss is guaranteed, but i think this is worth the gamble as another small loss will not be the end.

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PostPosted: Tue Jun 23, 2009 9:56 pm    Post subject:

Haka vs FC Lahti (Preview)

Haka
- Home Stats are W3 D1 L1 GF9 GA4. They have won their last 3 matches at home and their one home loss was against HJK, who were pre-season league favourites.
- Have not lost at home in their 4 matches in total. But they have only won 4 of their last 10 home matches in all competitions.
- 5 of their 10 games this season (50%) have finished over 2.5 goals. 3 of their 5 home games (60%) have finished over 2.5 goals.
- In their 5 home matches this season Haka have a half time record of W2 D2 L1 GF4 GA2.
- They score an average of 1.5 goals per match, and concede an average of 0.7 goals per match.
- FC Honka have kept 5 clean sheets (50%) in their 10 games played in the Veikkausliga so far this season.
- Only 5 of the 15 goals Haka have scored have come in the first 45 minutes of games.
- Haka sit 2nd in the form tables. With a record of W4 D1 L1 GF10 GA3.

FC Lathi
- Away Stats are W0 D2 L2 GF5 GA7. They are been very poor away from home this season and this includes a shock 2-1 defeat to JJK (Who in turn won their first game this season).
- Seem to have forgotten how to travel. And they have only won 1 of their last 10 away matches.
- 6 of their 10 games this season (60%) have finished over 2.5 goals. 3 of their 4 away games (75%) have finished over 2.5 goals.
- In their 5 away matches this season Haka have a half time record of W0 D2 L2 GF2 GA4.
- They score an average of 1.5 goals per match, and concede an average of 1.4 goals per match.
- FC Lahti have kept 2 clean sheets (20%) in their 10 games played in the Veikkausliga so far this season.
- They sit 11th in the form tables. With a record of W1 D2 L3 GF8 GA11.

Head To Head
In the long run this stat favours Haka. But in the last 10 meetings between these two sides Haka have only won once. The others being 4 Lathi wins and 5 draws. There are no noticeable patterns with the over/unders market when these two sides meet and overall the head to head stats are extremely close, not favouring either side.

Conclusion
Well I am not personally placing any bets on this game, but if I was too then I would side with the home team. The reason I am not has nothing to do with Haka, as they have been reliable at home so far this season. It is more to do with the unpredictability of FC Lathi. They will feel slightly embarrassed of their result to JJK last week and their slow start to season continues. Their winless run continues but they have a good enough team and overall record to pull a win out of the bag from nowhere. I personally will be avoiding games involving Lathi until they end their winless run.

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PostPosted: Wed Jun 24, 2009 6:32 pm    Post subject:

Bet 7: FC Honka @ 1.25 (Bet365)
Stake: 250pts
Return Profit If Wins: 62.50pts (Won)

Bet 8: IFK Mariehamn @ 3.20 (Bet365)
Stake: 125pts (Lost 0-0 Draw)

Bet 9: TPS @ 1.36 (Bet365)
Stake: 125pts
Return Profit If Wins: 45.45pts (Won)


Thats what i expected. Another loss, but a predicted one. I will update balance when back with next weeks selections. A winning week cannot be too far away!

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PostPosted: Wed Jun 24, 2009 10:31 pm    Post subject:

Updated:

Closing Balance: 4959.20pts
Blog Profit: -40.80pts
Success Rate: 6/9


Its the success rate that needs the percentage bar raising. Tried seeking out the value today in Finland which did backfire. Think i will be better off in the coming weeks going for the home picks. Would be better to see the blog in profit before trying the big priced away teams.

Think i am going to stick with the Veikkausliga until the other leagues kick off. As i am still not convinced on the Swedish leagues.

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PostPosted: Thu Jun 25, 2009 7:05 pm    Post subject:

No break after all. Did not realise more games followed in the Veikkausliga this weekend. So lets get things started........

TPS vs MyPA (Preview)

TPS
I was less than convinced at their 3-2 victory against poor travellers RoPS, with RoPS taking the lead twice in that game before TPS managed to see them off. So I took a look back at TPS’s last 20 home matches in the Veikkausliga. This came back as W10 D7 L3. Their 3 losses have been against HJK Helsinki, Haka (This season) and FC Inter (Last seasons Champions). So they have exactly a 50% win record at home from their last 20 home fixtures. Of those 20 matches TPS have kept 8 clean sheets. 3 of their 6 home matches this season have finished with them not conceding. And after a reasonably poor start to the season at home, with draws against FF Jaro and JJK they have really improved. The 0-0 draw against IFK Mariehamn was not a disappointment as almost everyone comes away with that scoreline after playing IFK. They are 2nd in the six match form tables. Having won 4 of those. And following a 45th minute equaliser against RoPS, TPS are yet to behind at half time in any of their home matches this season. TPS have no real pattern with over/under 2.5 goals so far this season, with 5 of their 11 matches finishing over 2.5 goals. And only 2 of their 6 home matches (33.3%) have been over the 2.5 goal mark.

MaPA
It was a standard win last time out for MaPA, a 2-0 away victory to the seemingly doomed KuPS. And due to the U21 Cup, MaPA are one of a few sides who have had a mini break. Their last match was played on the 13.06.2009. Apart from KuPS, other sides MaPA have beaten away from home are KooTeePee, KuPS again, Tampere Utd and FC Haka. Their away stats this season are W1 D2 L2 GF3 GA5. 6 of MyPAs 10 matches this season have finished under 2.5 goals. And 3 of their 5 away matches (60%) have ended under 2.5 goals. MyPA were the same last season with 18 of their 26 matches (69%) finished as unders. And the Veikkausliga as a whole has lacked goals this season with 61% of matches finishing under 2.5 goals. After a relatively strong beginning to this season MaPA have fallen off the pace and if you look back prior to their 2-0 win against KuPS they had some poor results including a 2-0 home defeat to VPS and a holding 2-2 draw to free-falling FC Lathi.

Head To Head
If you run this stat right back its completely even for both teams. Both teams having won 12 matches each and the other 7 ending as draws. The stats when TPS are at home read W7 D5 L5 GF21 GA20 in TPS’s favour. Looking at the overs/unders market, only 2 of the last 10 meetings between these two teams have finished over 2.5 goals. With 5 of those matches seeing less than 1.5 goals. When MaPA travel to TPS they don’t always find scoring goals easy and have not scored on their last 4 visits to TPS’s stadium. Those matches have ended in two 0-0 draws, and 1-0 and 2-0 wins for TPS. When these two sides have met in this fixture at this ground the last Six meetings have finished under 2.5 goals.

Conclusion
Although their midweek victory did not convince me I am going for TPS to see off MyPA. Who in turn have had a little break and should be the fresher side. But MyPA do not tend to make a habit of winning away from home. Despite the head to head being so close over the years, TPS have edged it in the recent years when playing at home and I think the odds given by Bet365 are slightly generous. The other obvious thing to catch my eye is under 2.5 goals. Will the trend between these two continue or will the trend be broken with TPS having 5 goals involved in their last game. There are not any odds yet available in the goals market but will be interesting to see what price will be offered on unders.

Bet 10: TPS @ 1.85 (Bet365)

Stake: 125pts
Profit If Wins: 106.25pts
Closing Balance: £4834.20


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PostPosted: Fri Jun 26, 2009 6:40 pm    Post subject:

FC Lahti vs Tampere Utd (Preview)

FC Lathi
Wow, well what has happened to FC Lathi at the moment? But in all their recent bad form the only result that really stands out for me is their 2-1 defeat to JJK. Lathi’s best player Jari Litmanen has been unavailable for a few of their matches lately and this could explain why FC Lathi have only managed to score 2 goals in their 3 games in June. And when you consider the fact Jari Litmanen has scored 33.3% of their goals this season he will obviously be welcomed back into their squad. He did play in their last game, against Haka. But Haka have been very strong at home this season so I will not look into that too much. So FC Lahti have a home record of W3 D2 L1 GF10 GA7. And when playing at home Lathi seem to have a very strong first 45 minutes and their half time home stats are W4 D1 L1 GF7 GA4. Their 3 home wins have been against KuPS, RoPS and FF Jaro and their 1 defeat was a 2-4 loss to TPS. 7 of their 11 matches this season have finished as over 2.5 goals, and 3 of their 6 home game have finished as overs. Lathi are eleventh in the six match form standings with a record of W1 D1 L4 GF6 GA12. Those 12 goals conceded average out to 2 goals conceded per match.

Tampere United
Have had another slow start to the season, which almost mirrors the start that they endured last season. And Tampere United have been suffering very badly when playing away from home. Their away stats this season are W0 D0 L4 GF1 GA7 and they are the lowest away goalscorers in the Veikkausliga league. Well they were trashed 4-1 by MyPA, and have suffered three 1-0 defeats to FC Haka, IFK Mariehamn and pre-season league favourites HJK Helsinki. So all in all I think the fact Tampere United are bottom of the away standings have gained no points is slightly misleading to say the least. Tampere’s half time stats when playing away from home are W0 D2 L2 GF1 GA3. They have been losing 1-0 at half time in their last 2 away games. When it comes to the goals market, Tampere tend to edge closer to the under 2.5 goals mark as opposed to the over 2.5 goals. Only RoPS and KuPS have scored less than the 8 goals Tampere have managed this season and a massive 8 of Tampere’s 10 matches have finished under 2.5 goals this season (3 of their 4 away matches). In the six match form figures Tampere are Eighth with a record of W3 D0 L3 GF6 GA4.

Head To Head
This is a stat that favours Tampere United. Taking the last 21 matches between these two sides the away team leads the standings with a record of W12 D4 L5 GF32 GA19. And when the two teams have met with FC Lahti playing at home, FC Lathi can only show a record of W3 D1 L7 GF8 GA14. So I think its fair to say they won’t welcome the visit of Tampere with the current form they are in. And Lathi have only won once in the last 7 matches between these two teams. 8 of the last 11 encounters at FC Lathi’s ground have finished under 2.5 goals, but 3 of the last 5 meetings have ended overs.

Conclusion
Well 10 of 11 tips of this site have gone for Lathi? But the only write up provided is by the one tipster opting for the draw. This match is extremely hard to call. If I was going to call this match I think Tampere (Draw No Bet) @ 2.10 is quite tempting. Lahti main problems of late have been the number of goals they have conceded, the head to head stats favour Tampere United in recent years and also favour them on this ground. Lathi have also failed to score in 7 of the last 10 matches against Tampere United in this fixture. Tampere have had some tough away fixtures this season and most of them have finished in very close results. Lathi continue to fall in form but I cannot decide on a winner. I might have a little bet with OLBG money on the Tampere (Draw No Bet).

No Bet

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PostPosted: Fri Jun 26, 2009 8:54 pm    Post subject:

FC Haka vs FF Jaro (Preview)

FC Haka
They had the perfect result midweek, with a 3-0 win over FC Lathi, which was the perfect response to their 2-1 defeat at an inform IFK Mariehamn. And Haka are really setting the pace this season, with other title challengers such as FC Inter, FC Honka and HJK Helsinki all stuttering early on. And so far the home win percentage in the Veikkausliga is considerably high at around 51%. Haka’s home record this season is W4 D1 L1 GF12 GA4 and they are third in the home team standings. Haka have beaten Tampere Utd at home so far this season, along with some other less talented opposition. Their home draw came against FC Honka, and their defeat was a 1-2 loss to HJK Helsinki. Haka have now won their last 4 matches at home in this league and have only conceded 1 goal in these 4 matches. In all competitions, Haka have won 5 of their last 6 matches. FC Haka’s half time statistics when playing at home are W2 D3 L1 GF4 GA2. And they tend to play better in the second half of games. 6 of their 11 matches this season have finished over 2.5 goals, and 4 of their 6 home matches have been overs. Haka really seemed to have turned things around this season after losing their last 5 home matches last season. And the main question is, can Haka keep this up?

FF Jaro
Conpared to what was expected of them pre-season FF Jaro have had a very impressive start to the campaign. But the majority of their wins this season have come at home, and against weak opposition. FF Jaro have an away record of W2 D1 L3 GF7 GA10. Jaro’s two away victories have come against Tampere United and VPS Vassa (Who are 4th and 9th in the home table standings). But they are 7th in the away team standings. But FF Jaro have found it difficult against tougher teams away from home, losing to FC Inter, FC Honka and FC Lahti, and they have lost 3 of their last 5 away matches in the Veikkausliga. In the first 45 minutes in away matches FF Jaro fare quite well with half time stats of W2 D2 L2 GF4 GA4 (This is the 3rd best away half time stats in the division). 5 of Jaro’s 11 matches this season have finished over 2.5 goals. 3 of their 6 away matches have finished overs. And so far only 23% of matches in the Veikkausliga have ended in away victories. Jaro will not find this easy, especially with the confidence currently in the Haka camp.

Head To Head
When these two sides meet the head to head stats are in massively in favour of the home team Haka. Stats are W15 D6 L6 GF47 GA25. But Haka tend to perform better when playing away against FF Jaro. When playing them at home Haka’s record is W6 D3 L4 GF22 GA14. 7 of the last 10 head to heads have resulted in over 2.5 goals, and considering both sides are joint 2nd top goalscorers so far this season, goals galore could well be a possibility. Haka have won 5 of the last 7 meetings against FF Jaro, but the away side did win here 2-1 last season.

Conclusion
I have to side with Haka here. While FF Jaro have started the season impressively I feel they have had a relatively easy beginning set of fixtures compared to most sides. Haka must be buzzing with confidence and this is another opportunity to extend their lead at the top of the league. Especially with HJK Helsinki playing host to FC Inter on the same day. Jaro have suffered defeats away to top teams so far this season and I expect that to continue here. Haka know with a win here they can really Lay down their intension of challenging for the title this season and put pressure of the teams chasing them, even at this early stage.

Bet 11: FC Haka @ 1.72 (SkyBet)

Stake: 125pts
Profit If Wins: 90.91pts
Closing Balance: £4709.20

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PostPosted: Sat Jun 27, 2009 11:33 am    Post subject:

The Big Match

HJK Helsinki vs FC Inter (Preview)

HJK
Well the pre season favourites have endured a mediocre start to the season. They are slightly off the pace but have games in hand on all the teams above them. But HJK’s poor results have come away from home, with 1-0 defeats against RoPS and Mypa. At home they have been very strong and have not suffered defeat in their last 13 matches in all competitions. Winning 9 of those matches. Their home record this season is W4 D2 L0 GF12 GA4 and they are top in the home team standings. And the fact HJK Helsinki are top of that stat is impressive considering they have already played the likes of IFK Mariehamn, FC Honka, Tampere Utd, FC Lahti and TPS already at home. At half time at home HJK stats are W4 D2 L0 GF6 GA1, so they have not been losing at home at half so far this season. I think another strength about HJK is that their midfield players chip in with as many goals as the strikers, and unlike a few teams in the Veikkausliga they do not have to rely on the performances of a couple of players. Only 3 of HJK’s 10 matches this have finished over 2.5 goals. And only 2 of their 6 home matches have finished as overs. HJK are currently 9th in the six match form standings with stats of W2 D2 L2 GF4 GA4. And they are joint top home goalscorers, along with FC Haka, with 12 goals. HJK’s last 7 matches have all been under 2.5 goals.

FC Inter
Have had a very long break since their last match on the 01.06.2009. And that match was a 2-1 win over FC Honka and will go down as a massive win for Inter. They currently sit 4th in the away team standings and have a record of W2 D1 L1 GF4 GA2. They have conceded less away goals than any other team in the Veikkausliga, but have only played 4 away matches. Most teams have played around 6 matches away from home. But Inters 2 away wins came against RoPS and KuPS. They also drew 0-0 to MyPA and were defeated 2-0 by IFK Mariehamn. Inter have only scored 11 goals this season and they are the lowest goalscorers in the top half of the table. They need big performances from Guillano Grot etc. When playing away from home their half time stats are W1 D2 L1 GF2 GA1. FC Inter are another side who usually see under 2.5 goals. This season 8 of their 10 matches in the Veikkausliga have finished as unders. And this is very much Inters style, with 17 of their 26 matches last season also finishing under 2.5 goals. Inter are known for winning while not playing the best of football and 7 of their last 8 matches have seen less than 2.5 goals. In the six match form table FC Inter are 4th with a record of W4 D0 L2 GF8 GA4.

Head To Head
This is hugely in favour of HJK Helsinki. And I actually had to check this twice as I thought something was wrong with my stats. But it was correct and the stats favour HJK with a record of W21 D5 L3 GF55 GA20. And when HJK play at home to FC Inter in this fixture the stats are W12 D1 L2 GF31 GA12. FC Inter have only won once in the last 10 meetings between these sides. Along with 3 draws and 6 HJK victories. 7 of the last 10 meetings have resulted in under 2.5 goals, with 4 of these also being under 1.5 goals. But in this fixture with HJK at home 3 of the last 5 meeting have been overs.

Conclusion
One of two possible outcomes, will HJK Helsinki take this opportunity to show they are the best team in this league and justify the price surrounding their outright price to win this league or will FC Inter provide an upset. I think not. FC Inter have struggled when coming to this ground in the past and have lost the last 5 matches here in all competitions. With FC Haka hot in form, HJK need to win this match. Both teams have had a short break because of the International matches. HJK have the better all round squad and have proved over the years they are a formidable team when playing at home. I think the game will be close but HJK have a great record in this fixture and can further holt FC Inters title hopes here. With the goals market despite everything pointing to under 2.5 goals I would not be surprised to see the goals flying in here, so I will avoid the overs/unders market.

Bet 12: HJK Helsinki @ 1.90 NB (Bet365)

Stake: 250pts
Profit If Wins: 227.27pts
Closing Balance: 4459.20pts

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madbobmagee
Triple Crown Winner


Joined: 12 May 2008
Posts: 1860
Location: Donegal, Ireland

PostPosted: Sat Jun 27, 2009 3:11 pm    Post subject:

Great work as always LP1985. Win

I have to agree with your TPS vs MyPA tip although I can also see relatively decent value in the DNB @ 1.4 for TPS considering only 1 defeat in their last 6 league games at home and that was to big guns Haka in April while MyPA's recent form hasn't been very exciting and they haven't won here since 2005.
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Liverpool1985
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Joined: 15 Sep 2008
Posts: 1812
Location: England

PostPosted: Sat Jun 27, 2009 8:44 pm    Post subject:

Thank you Madbob Smile Well done on the DNB.

Well avoiding the big priced away selections definitely helped me today. With FC Lahti winning late on against Tampere United. Both these teams are likely to improve their results in the coming weeks and i am sure Tampere's first points away from home will not be that far away.

Bet 10: TPS @ 1.85 (Bet365) - (WON)
Stake: 125pts
Profit If Wins: 106.25pts


I will update after tomorrows matches. Come on HJK is my call. I will provide my conclusion on the FC Honka match, but as its an away selection i shall not be using it on this blog.

The FC Honka write up will be tomorrow as i am currently to wasted to post it now.

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