Sharks World Cup System

[The Shark]

Im getting quite excited about this one!

I have devised a system based on the past performance of teams to predict which team should win each match but also what price they should be.

By comparing the best odds available on the predicted match winner with the price the system says they should be, its thrown up some great value bets.

Following the system strictly, 7/8 of the value picks have come in so far!

Holland to bt Serbia - 20/23
Portugal to bt Angola -2/5
Czech Republic to bt USA -EVS
Italy to bt Ghana - 1.74
S Korea to bt Togo - 11/10
Spain to bt Ukraine - 1.91
Sweden to bt Paraguay - EVS

and the losing one

Japan to bt Austrlaia - 21/10

[The Shark]

So now Ive made enough to take the family away on holiday (as long as I can keep hold of it for long enough!) I thought I should share the slections with you guys.

Antony's managed to transform my notes and theories into a program and you can see the selections here.

http://www.online-betting-guide.co.uk/worldcup/value_bets.php

[The Shark]

Lets hope I havent put the kiss of death on this.....

The next one up is Holland to beat Ivory Coast. The system says Holland should be odds on - around 8/11 yet you can back Holland at EVS with -0.5 on the Asian Handicap with Bet 365.

[coopsy02]

nice 1 shark, how big are your suitcases good luck for the remainder

[swift tuttle]

Well done Shark - a really nice run of results

but remember these are value bets and value bets don't usually run up a sequence.
As I'm sure you know with value betting it's a percentage game.


With this world cup so far, there has not been many form upsets - that's what it comes down to.

But I'm putting a damper on this - Congratulations and enjoy your holiday (when Antony lets you have time off!)

[KanKeano]

Well done, Sharky! Any system that turns in a profit is not to be sniffed at. Well done mate. Shall be watching intently.
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If to want to read previews, bets and my ratings on the Eng Premiership, German 1.Bundesliga & Spanish Primera please visit my blog.

[The Shark]

Thanks Coopsy and Keano

Thanks Swift - Yes - agree - my betting is very focused on the principle of value - the idea of this system was to try and identify matches where the favoured team was available at longer odds than maybe they should be.

I believe its built on solid foundations and should make a profit long term - but am only expecting a small percentage profit.

Yes I agree that all the favourites winning has helped and I shouldnt get carried away with the winning streak - some lucky late goals etc have caused some of the wins.

But if you consistently bet at value odds then you make your own luck.

[The Shark]

To take advantage of value beting opportunities you also need a good staking plan - Ive tried many but settled on the take out staking plan.

This is where you bet to win a certain amount - therefore varying your stake and not the winnings - this way risking more on shorter odds and less on longer odds.

This plan does go againts one of my theories - the better value you can get the more you should stake - but I find it works very well in protecting your betting bank.

So say you were aiming to win £100 per bet then you would stake £100 on an EVS shot, £50 on a 2/1 shot, £200 on a 1/2 shot etc.

Combining this staking plan with the selections so far and aiming to win a £100 per bet -

8 winners after the Holland match = £800 less £47.62 would mean £752.38 profit so far.

[The Shark]

The next selection is Czech Republic to bt Ghana

The system suggests Czech Republic should be priced at 1/5 (0.21) whereas Coral have them priced at 4/6 (0.667)

Using the staking plan the bet would be £150 at 4/6.

Good luck

[SamTummo]

Cool stuff sharky - Ill be interested to see how this works in the knouckout stages and also if it can be used in another capacity. i.e in the Premiership, Championship etc..
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"Once Everton has touched you, nothing will be the same" Alan Ball 1945-2007. RIP Bally

[The Shark]

With Mexico, Czech Republic and Italy all being turned over at short prices in the last two days, Has the tide turned in the favour of the bookies at last?

Czech Republic was a bad result for the system which picks out BRazil and France today as possible "value Bets"

There isnt much in it though as the prdicted odds for Brazil are 1/5 and 1/4 is availabel with Blue Square, whereas the system suggests France should be 1.43 whereas Betfred offer 1.44.

Perhaps more interstingly, the system agrees that Coratia are the more likely winner buts suggests odds of 2.11 when they are trading at a much shorter 4/6. Perhaps one to stay away from at such short odds.

[The Shark]

Two selections today

The system says England are value at 6/4 with Bet 365 to beat Sweden and Paraguay at 1.91 with Coral to bt Trinidad and Tobago.