Location and size to determine promotion to EPL?

Ipoh Shark · At Stud Read My Blog! Joined: 05 May 2005 Posts: 2727

From the beginning of the season, there have been rumours around this part of the world that London teams will be good bets for relegation this season as there are far too many of them around the EPL. Too bad i did not heed them and place some money on that.

i think club location, stadium size and supporters following will most likely determine which teams will qualify to the EPL from the Championship this season.

Therefore, i need some help to determine amongst the Championship promotion chasing teams, which ones are:

1) more famous traditionally, i.e. have good history previously but down in recent years? This would most likely also mean that they have a stadium size and supporter following fit for the EPL.

2) have a good location, i.e. are not concentrated in 1 area, say London, Liverpool etc. Preferably where there are currently no representatives in the EPL.

These info would be very useful (at least for me) to predict the results of matches for the rest of the Championship season. Cardiff looks like a nice bet as there are no football clubs around that area (if my map is correct), but i do not know how big they are. i really need locals to help me on this one.

Thanks.
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KanKeano · Posted: Tue Mar 13, 2007 11:08 am Post subject:

Ipoh Shark · At Stud Read My Blog! Joined: 05 May 2005 Posts: 2727

thanks, kk.
as u know, i am not from England, so this question might seem elementary. Are North West of England, Birmingham and London the places where most of the money is in England, i.e. most riches of the country concentrated in these areas?
The rumour came about when there were reports that attendances at EPL matches were dwindling. A reason suggested was, too many London clubs were diluting the supporter base, and the smaller London clubs just do not seem to be able to fill up their stadiums (this i found hard to believe as almost all the matches i watched had high gates). So a major shakeup was required to "bring in" clubs which regularly attract high attendances; television audiences do not like to see half empty stadiums as there is much less atmosphere and thus excitement. Many are suckers for emotional scenes like supporters turning on their underperforming players, little kids crying when their team lost etc.
i can search for the location of Cship clubs but it is more tricky to get stats like average attendances vs stadium capacity, history of club etc. so i thot it would be easier to just ask u guys which ones appear to be "big enough" for the EPL next season.
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KanKeano · Posted: Tue Mar 13, 2007 4:34 pm Post subject:

Attendances for the this season

Team - Average - Highest

1 Sunderland 29.348 40.116

2 Derby County 25.016 31.920

3 Norwich City 24.544 25.443

4 Sheffield Wednesday 23.877 29.103

5 Southampton 22.841 30.548

6 Ipswich Town 22.356 28.355

7 Leicester City 22.124 30.457

8 Birmingham City 21.369 29.431

9 West Bromwich Albion 20.314 26.606

10 Wolverhampton Wanderers 19.821 27.203

11 Coventry City 19.724 27.212

12 Leeds United 19.489 23.037

13 Hull City 18.576 25.512

14 Crystal Palace 17.378 20.159

15 Stoke City 16.200 20.017

16 Cardiff City 15.642 20.109

17 Preston North End 14.451 19.603

18 Plymouth Argyle 13.533 17.088

19 Burnley 12.455 15.061

20 Queens Park Rangers 12.380 14.793

21 Barnsley 11.745 21.253

22 Southend United 9.910 11.415

23 Luton Town 8.452 10.260

24 Colchester United 5.378 6.065

danwith · Posted: Tue Mar 13, 2007 7:45 pm Post subject:

Leeds IMO are a big club and probably bigger than chelsea on past history and attendances, and look where they are!
Can't see them getting promoted, though I can see them returning to the top flight in a few years.
Nottingham Forest aren't the biggest of clubs but should be up there aswell. But I can't see any relation location, stadium size and support with short time success, maybe long time.

Inatimate1 · Posted: Tue Mar 13, 2007 8:09 pm Post subject:

What have I missed here, is there some new regulation out, or is it just something to do with a theory?

I actually did a project for A-Level maths on League position and average attendance, if only this was here 2 years ago i could have really put some input into this, oh and I got an A- for it Laughing

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Ipoh Shark · At Stud Read My Blog! Joined: 05 May 2005 Posts: 2727

thanks for the stat, kk, and others for ur opinions. This has helped narrow down the list of candidates considerably.

Just give me some time to digest that and compare to the updated league table today. i will share my predictions later.

just wondering what result/conclusion came out of Inatimate's maths project 2 years ago...care to share ur A-, my friend? Smile

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Inatimate1 · Posted: Wed Mar 14, 2007 3:29 am Post subject:

I used the Pearson Product correlation coefficient to find a link between each team's average attendance and their finishing position in terms of the 92 league teams in the league as a whole for a certain season, and I can't exactly remember the correlation between the two, I think though it was around 0.6-0.7, which shows a very large correlation between the two, granted that I had to conclude that stadiums have upper limits, and the teams in each division cannot finish above and/or below a certain position in the table, but for me it was pretty effective, and yes, the teams higher up the table have higher average attendances, and strangely enough the teams with the higher average attendances are there or thereabouts in the league. Sunderland & Derby lead the Championship handicap, 2nd and 3rd at the moment...

Colchester, Luton, Southend, Barnsley, are at the tail-end, 3 of them are in the bottom 5....

League one is a bit strange, Forest, Swansea, Bristol City, 4th, 2nd, 8th,

Bottom 5: - Cheltenham, Chesterfield, Port Vale, Leyton Orient, Rotherham - 22nd, 21st, 12th, 18th, 24th

League Two: - Swindon, Mk Dons, Walsall, Lincoln are the leaders in average attendances, 3rd, 4th, 2nd, 5th

Macclesfield, Boston, Accrington Stanley trail, 20th, 23rd, 21st, will have to work it out again for this season see if there's still a link, but like I said, there's only so high a team can reach, and so many people that can fill a stadium, e.g. Sunderland have the 12th highest average attendance, but can't finish above 21st, whilst Wigan are 34th, but can't finish lower than 20th. Luton cannot top over 10000 fans in their current stadium, which is needed for an average of 45th or higher, i.e. Championship standard. But Darlington and Notts County have the potential to average that of a top half of the Championship side. but can't finish higher than a league position of 68th

Stuff like that really Ipoh

Win

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Ipoh Shark · At Stud Read My Blog! Joined: 05 May 2005 Posts: 2727

very interesting findings, Inatimate. Win

I have played around with the C’ship table (courtesy of kk). Basically, I have sorted it out according to their table positions as at 14.3.07, and added in current points as additional info.

Ranking by avg attendance- Team - Average - Highest – (current pts)

8 Birmingham City 21.369 29.431 (70)
2 Derby County 25.016 31.920 (70)
1 Sunderland 29.348 40.116 (67)
17 Preston North End 14.451 19.603 (65)
10 Wolverhampton Wanderers 19.821 27.203 (65)
9 West Bromwich Albion 20.314 26.606 (63)
16 Cardiff City 15.642 20.109 (63)
5 Southampton 22.841 30.548 (60)
15 Stoke City 16.200 20.017 (58)

24 Colchester United 5.378 6.065 (53)
14 Crystal Palace 17.378 20.159 (52)
4 Sheffield Wednesday 23.877 29.103 (52)
18 Plymouth Argyle 13.533 17.088 (49)
11 Coventry City 19.724 27.212 (49)
3 Norwich City 24.544 25.443 (47)
7 Leicester City 22.124 30.457 (46)
6 Ipswich Town 22.356 28.355 (45)
19 Burnley 12.455 15.061 (41)
13 Hull City 18.576 25.512 (41)
22 Southend United 9.910 11.415 (38)
21 Barnsley 11.745 21.253 (38)
20 Queens Park Rangers 12.380 14.793 (37)
23 Luton Town 8.452 10.260 (36)
12 Leeds United 19.489 23.037 (35)

Step 1- Elimination based on current points
Teams which seem to be still in the hunt for promotion are only the top 9 currently. Colchester in 10th place are already 6 points off the pace 9th placed, Stoke. So, the teams are narrowed down to 9.
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Ipoh Shark · At Stud Read My Blog! Joined: 05 May 2005 Posts: 2727

Pardon me if I got it wrong, but I’m doing this based only on a map so I might not get the locations correct.

Ranking by avg attendance- Team - Average - Highest – (current pts)- location- EPL clubs in vicinity- promotion odds

8 Birmingham City 21.369 29.431 (70) Mid 1 – Villa – 1.4
2 Derby County 25.016 31.920 (70) Mid 2 – None – 1.73
1 Sunderland 29.348 40.116 (67) North – Newcastle – 1.62
17 Preston North End 14.451 19.603 (65) North West – None - 5
10 Wolverhampton Wanderers 19.821 27.203 (65) Mid 1 – Villa – 3.75
9 West Bromwich Albion 20.314 26.606 (63) Mid 1 – Villa – 2.1
16 Cardiff City 15.642 20.109 (63) South West – None - 6
5 Southampton 22.841 30.548 (60) South – Portsmouth – 4.5
15 Stoke City 16.200 20.017 (58) North West – None - 15

Step 2- Elimination based on location
All 9 teams are separated quite evenly geographically with the exception of Birmingham City, Wolves and WBA, who are from the same area. I do not expect all 3 to be promoted this season, as this would be contrary to my initial theory. There are not many EPL clubs nearby these promotion chasing teams, so none are jinxed by the “high concentration of EPL clubs” theory.

Step 3- Elimination based on avg attendances
It is quite clear that Preston, Cardiff and Stoke City appear relatively light weight compared to other promotion contenders in terms of attendances. Therefore, they would only rank as outsiders for promotion.
Out of the 9 teams, the top 2 teams with highest average attendances, Derby and Sunderland, are currently 2nd and 3rd in the Championship. Coincidence? Will they last the distance?
Southampton should be in with a shout if location and attendances have a bearing to promotion.

My final predictions for promotion:
Sunderland (highest attendance stats, only Newcastle nearby)
Derby (2nd highest attendance stats and no EPL clubs nearby)
Birmingham (higher attendance stats compared to local rivals, Wolves and WBA)
Southampton (dark horses, higher attendance stats compared to B'ham and only Portsmouth is nearby)
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Inatimate1 · Posted: Wed Mar 14, 2007 11:44 am Post subject:

Preston has Bolton and Blackburn nearish to them, always see a mix of the three in the area where I live, Laughing

, it is interesting using attendances to calculate final positions, but the other thing that got me thinking when i did the whole analysis orignally is that there are many teams who lose a lot of fans when they arent performing well, i know we used to average around 9-10,000 fans every game in the Champioship, now its under 7,000 in League One, there's a definate factor there, there's bound to be a few flaws, but still, on the whole it all looks pretty accurate, the teams in UK with the highest average attendances are:

1st Premiership - Man Utd
3rd Championship - Sunderland
4th League One - Notts Forest
3rd League Two - Swindon Town
2nd Conferance - Oxford Utd
2nd SPL - Rangers
1st Scotts 1 - Gretna
2nd Scotts 2 - Stirling

then 5th Scotts 3 - Dumbarton

over all pretty accurate, from a bettin perspective, 7/9 placing at the moment in an E/W perspective

and for the lowest Average Attendances:

15th Premiership - Wigan
10th Championship - Colchester
22nd League One - Cheltenham
20th League Two - Macclesfield
19th Conferance - Northwich V
7th SPL - Inverness CT
3rd Scotts 1 - Clyde
10th Scotts 2 - Forfar
10th Scotts 3 - East Stirlingshire

Not as much of a correlation there, only 3/9 in the relegation zone's of their respective divisions, would be interesting to see what it's like around the globe, leave out Italy because of their troubles, and...

Spain - 1st Barcalona
France - 8th Marseille
Germany 13th Dortmund

Not too much of a link, but all these teams have the largest stadiums in their leagues so its probably only natural that they should have a higher Average Attendance, teams below top flight are probably the best to look at for something like this, because you could do the average attendance for the Premiership for the rest of your life, and Man Utd will probably still come out top Laughing

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mantismantim · Listed Class Joined: 10 Nov 2006 Posts: 42

Although Sunderland is near Newcastle both teams have an absolutely phenominal following both home but most notably away, especially considering they are way up in the top corner of the country! As an Ipswich fan i'll admit we have been poor the last 2seasons or so but we still average over 22,000 which i think is quite respectable considering the poor form, and we have a reasonable history! There aren't really many local clubs, Colchester about 15miles away and i think Norwich is about another 50away, after that you're travelling for a good couple of hours to find another team! Wait for our squad to develop in 3-4yrs and then i reckon we're in with a more than half decent shout!