Relegation '08 : Who's going down?

[spider2097]

Premiership Contenders

Fulham 1.44
Bolton 2.10
Sunderland 3.50
Birmingham 4.00
Newcastle 5.00
Reading 5.00
Wigan 9.00
Middlesbrough 15.00

Championship Contenders

Colchester 1.05
Scunthorpe 1.25
Leicester 3.50
Coventry 4.00
Sheff Wed 4.33
Southampton 4.33
Barnsley 6.50
Preston 7.00
Norwich 8.00
Blackpool 8.00
Cardiff 17.00
Sheff Utd 51.00

League 2 Contenders

Wrexham 2.10
Mansfield 2.10
Macclesfield 2.87
Notts County 2.87
Chester 4.50
Dag & Red 5.00
Bury 9.00
Barnet 15.00
Accrington Stanley 26.00

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At this time, there are no prices for League One teams.
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Derby are down from the Premiership, however there are two more spots available. I'm not so sure that Fulham should be that short It's my opinion that 4/1 for Newcastle is a massive price & is worth a punt. Bolton look a solid bet at 11/10 too.

Likewise, Mansfield and Wrexham looked certainties at one point. Recent performances & results have meant that that needs re-examining again too. A number of teams cannot claim to be secure in having League football next season just yet.

It looks like it could be an absolute epic final day of the season.

(All prices from Bet365)
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[martingardner1]

I think Fulham are doomed for the drop, with their depth of squad. Although they do have some quality players I don't think they're a match for the teams above them. Maybe a little short considering their position, but still worth taking though IMO. Bolton will be closer, they have a fairly decent squad but really haven't looked the same since Anelka left; they are desperate for goals from open play and have a major lack of match winners. Sunderland, Birmingham and possibly Wigan will be in the scrap come the end of the season, but the current bottom 3 are my favourites to go down.

[betking]

Fulham and Bolton. Fulham are just not good enough, and Bolton are looking toothless lately. Newcastle are useless but should just have enough to avoid the drop.
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[Ukgatsby]

Home vs Fulham (Most recent first)
1-2 (Parker)
1-1 (N'Zogbia)
0-1
1-4 (Bellamy)
3-2 (Robert, Shearer 2)
2-0 (Solano, Bellamy)
1-3 (Speed)

[Ipoh Shark]

Fulham should be the next sure one according to conspiracy theorists.

The last one will most probably be decided by the level of support of their own fans in home and away matches. tv audiences do not like to watch a half empty stadium. On this premise, Bolton looks the most likely.

However, there have been instances when adequately supported teams make the drop, e.g. Leeds, some years ago.
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[fairfranco]

The epic last day of the season see's some very tough ties for the relegation contenders

Birmingham v Blackburn, 15:00
Chelsea v Bolton, 15:00
Derby v Reading, 15:00
Everton v Newcastle, 15:00
Portsmouth v Fulham, 15:00
Sunderland v Arsenal, 15:00

Wigan also play Man Utd though I don't see them or Middlesboro getting caught by all of those teams.

Of those I'd say Birmingham cuold beat Blackburn though it may depend on their position for European place on how they play. Chelsea shouldn't drop points to Bolton while any game even Derby is a tough one away from home for Reading.

Newcastle go to Goodision where i'm sure they'll be hoping to be safe already, if they're not and Everton are still in the hunt for 4th i don't see them getting anything even if not I wouldn't fancy their chances unless Everton have the same injury issues that aided theirloss at the weekend.

Depending on Pompy's position and FA Cup they may have other things on their mind and Fulham could get something they could do with an unheard of away win.

Sunderland have a good home form but if the title race isn't over then you've got to fancy Arsenal to turn them over, I think if they played each other at the moment though i'd quite fancy Sunderland to pick up a point.

[fairfranco]

Newcastle's point last night actually pushed their odds up from 5.1 to 6 on Betfair dissapointing as I'd considered a draw would have been ok for my odds after topping up at 5.1.

I think this weekends tie between Newcastle and Fulham will be a huge one, Fulham need that first away win and if they got it newcastle and the other sides between them would become very involved.

Birmingham go to Reading which is another huge one, a win could see either side push their way over the 30 point mark and should see them clear a couple of sides in doing so.

Bolton's game in hand and weekend game this week are not too enticing for them with 2 games against their Manchester rivals, away to Old trafford then home to City! They simply must get something out of City to stay a float.

[thetitan]

Fulham have some hope IMO...beating Aston Villa and Everton in recent games, potential is definitely there to sneak some points off those types of teams at the end of the season, if they have nothing to play for.

Obviously I'm completely biased, but at the same time I thought that Fulham to be relegated @ 1.4ish a month or so ago was outstanding value.. Now, with Bullard and McBride back, the team spirit is excellent. In terms of quality, it ain't that great but it doesn't need to be considering the likes of Bolton, Sunderland, Birmingham also lack any quality. Also, I suppose we don't have enough quality yet we're good enough to beat Everton?

In fact, the defence has really shaped up since Hodgson took over, and it looks reasonably solid - I can only remember one effort by Everton which really threatened the keeper.

Next four games are Newcastle away, Derby away, Reading away, Sunderland at home. Also have Birmingham and Liverpool at home, Man City and Pompey away. I don't think we could have asked for a better run-in, we were saved last season by beating Liverpool at home when Rafa put out a 2nd XI, Man City and Pompey will likely have nothing to play for come those games.

If we don't beat Derby, I think it's fair enough to assume that we're relegation bound though.

I think that there is good value in Bolton to get relegated, I just can't see how they can manage to scrape wins...they couldn't beat a 10 man Wigan, let alone score a goal. I think they'll pick up a few draws, but just can't see where they'll get goals from.

I think that Birmingham and Sunderland are the other main contenders, I think that Sunderland's away form is extremely worrying in that they've hardly even picked up any draws, but I think their home form should be good enough to see them survive.
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[Chudovski]

Chester must be worth a shout at 4.5.

Without checking i believe they've picked up something along the lines of 7 points from their past 52 and i know they have some very tough fixtures coming up including Peterborough, Hereford, Wycombe and others.

They're in freefall, they have tough fixtures and they may even be heading into Administration.

I shall be investigating this later.

[spider2097]

With regards to the Premiership; I think the biggest tell will be the game between Fulham & Newcastle this weekend. However, Fulham's away form is worrying. I'm still convinced that Newcastle's erratic behaviour can see them drop perilously close to the dropzone, whilst the heart shown by Fulham recently can give them the belief that survival is possible.

William Hill now have Newcastle at 9/2 (from 7/2) for relegation whilst Birmingham shortened from 3/1 to 11/4 after the draw last night. I still think that Newcastle are worth having small stakes on, I don't think getting a point from each game will be good enough to see them escape trouble. No disrespect to Harper, but the news that Given is out injured cannot have filled Geordie hearts with glee.

From the remaining fixture's, I'd say that Fulham have a good chance of staying up - however if they get a positive result against the Toon, the price may become worthwhile to "back" Fulham for the drop. If the Cottagers can get three points & break their awful away form at the weekend, the race will once again be wide open.
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[mike mercury]

LEAGUE 2

wrexham can escape at the possible expence of Chester who seem to be in all sorts of bother
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[spider2097]

I do have to agree with the posts pointing out Chester. I nearly included them in my opening post for the thread as a team with a slightly longer price than I would've thought.

When you look at the upcoming fixtures for them, things don't look too good. If Mansfield & Wrexham can continue their recent upturn in performances that is another "race" where a couple of fortuitous results can see the whole thing thrown on it's head.

The Championship looks interesting, it does look as though Colchester & Scunthorpe are almost certainly gone whilst virtually any of the bottom half sides could finish in the last relegation place. The price for Barnsley looks tasty though.
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"There's no such thing as a grown-up. We get bigger, we get taller, we get older. But, for the most part, we're still a bunch of kids, running around the playground, trying desperately to fit in."