Relegation '08 : Who's going down?

[Caslad]

I still think that Newcastle could get drawn into the dog fight quite soon unless they start to pick up points,Fulham have had a couple of good games of late and i think they may gain some confidence from this,some might not agree with this but i have a feeling that Middlesbrough will slip down soon they aren't picking up many 3 pointers and even at home don't seem up to much and the fans are staying away.
Think that Chester look good for the drop in league 2,just sacked their manager and look in all kinds of trouble and i think will go into frefall pretty soon.
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[igorjas]

Bolton for sure will go down, managed to get 6/5 on them. Their top scorer at the club I think is Nolan with 5 goals. They can't buy a goal, and they have some harder games to come. I think Fulham have a chance, their next few games are against teams around them. Wigan should be ok now, that 10 man win over Bolton was critical. Sunderland are also struggling with goals and away form, and I think they will be in trouble.

[Bagface]

I hammered Bolton to get relegated at the start of the season after Big Sam left, reasoning that they would take a long time to adjust the ABSOLUTELY Allardyce style they have to a new managers style.. and their squad is seriously weak. Has been for years.. it's completely tailored around one manager's ideas.

Got 6/1 at start of season, had £100 on it.

Joined Betfair about a month ago and laid off for a free £400 profit if they go down, break even if they stay up. Good times.

So yeah, here's to hoping Bolton drop. Fulham look set to give a good home run in I hope.. Sunderland I have been let down with, I really thought they would have a great year. My "11-13th" prediction for them is clearly wrong, but hopefully my faith in them to at least stay up will hold steady.

Borough, Wigan and Reading.. I would be shocked at this stage if they drop.

Newcastle have the worst form of the lot, but the best squad, best fanbase.. I think they will be ok, though it's close.

Birmingham have been playing REALLY well recently - the 4-2 against Pompey is very respectable, the home draw to Arsenal (before Arsenal dropped in form, I will add, which makes it even more impressive) and hammering of Tottenham.. plus they have a decent team with Premiership experience.. I like them.

Imo, other than Derby, Bolton look the most likely to get the drop. The remaining team looks a COMPLETE shot in a barrell at the moment, I really couldn't predict it. On the basis of squad, home fans and amount of making up to do, I guess Fulham are my choice to complete the trio.. but I couldn't tip them to drop with any conviction at all.

[chris]

Derby are gone and have been since the first couple matches...

Fulham are struggling for goals although they are putting in good efforts everyweek ever since loius saha left they just havent had a goal scoring striker, bullard is a quality player and is the only reason imo they could stay up, but cant see them winning any away games and look doomed.

Birmingham, have a great spirit, manager and players but all 3 just dont click at the same time, being an aston villa fan im in two minds about them going down as we wont have the derbie next season but on april 20th when we play and beat them if they are in the bottom three they will go down.

Newcastle, wigan, borough, sunderland imo have the players to stay up and will

[thetitan]

now, 2 games to go, what does everyone reckon?

14 Wigan 36 -17 37
15 Middlesbrough 36 -19 36
16 Bolton 36 -20 33
17 Reading 36 -28 33
18 Birmingham 36 -17 32
19 Fulham 36 -25 30
20 Derby 36 -63 11

remaining relevant games:

3rd May

Aston Villa v Wigan
Bolton v Sunderland
Fulham v Birmingham
Middlesbrough v Portsmouth
Reading v Tottenham

11th My

Birmingham v Blackburn
Chelsea v Bolton
Derby v Reading
Portsmouth v Fulham
Wigan v Man Utd
Middlesbrough v Man City

===============

apologies for the poor layout.

boro - IMO they only need 1-2 points from their remaining 2 games, and with home games against pompey and man city, you'd expect them to be fine, although it could get a bit tense.

bolton - they will be chuffed that sunderland are out of the relegation battle now, as they will now have nothing to play for. You get the feeling that this is a must-win game for bolton, as you can't see them getting points at stamford bridge, esp if chelsea need to win that game.

reading - IMO they won't win against spurs, and will need to beat derby away on the last day of the season to stay up. On paper, this is a banker three points for reading but derby have managed a few draws to bottom half sides this season, so they might find it difficult.

birmingham - match against fulham will probably decide their fate, although i think they will enter the final game needing to beat blackburn at home, and hoping results go their way.

fulham - after managing to somehow beat man city, they have a fair degree of hope but probably need to win both remaining games against brum and pompey to have a chance. IMO, this is where Jimmy Bullard comes in, I've said all along that he has the potential to do what Tevez did for West Ham last season.

i get the feeling that the match against brum will be the decisive one, fulham are fairly lucky in that pompey are in a slump at the moment and have the FA Cup final a few days after the match, so if Fulham beat Birmingham, I think they'll also do enough against portsmouth to get a win.

strong possibility of this going down to goal difference, Reading and Fulham are doing pretty badly in GD terms, but you never know - if Brum/Bolton lose badly and Reading/Fulham win well, GD could get even closer, and it may sound far-fetched, but I think there is a small chance of teams ending on the same number of points, with the same GD!

using this nifty tool:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/football/eng_prem/predictor/default.stm

I have Fulham and Birmingham going down, with Fulham and Bolton equal on points - Bolton stay up with a slightly better GD.
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Corner vulture

Jimmy Bullard for England Captain. Seriously.

[Inatimate1]

I don't know who will go down, the game between Fulham and Birmingham will decide Fulham's fate, but in reality Bolton will go down on the last day of the season if Fulham beat Pompey or Birmingham beat Blackburn depending on how the game at the weekend goes.

Their ideal position in all honesty would be a Fulham win, as their last day opposition, Pompey, will have their eye on the FA Cup final. So Fulham could get a point or two and end up safe of relegation, whilst at the same time, Birmingham will be hosting Blackburn who will be all out for the win in order to claim an Inter-toto spot ahead of Man City and Villa.

If Birmingham win, they go ahead of Bolton, leaving all the pressure on them to pick up 3pts in the late match against Sunderland on Setanta, and failing to do so could leave it to them and Reading fighting it out on the last day of the season, and in all honesty, I would rather fancy Reading to perform better against Derby, than Bolton at Stamford Bridge, where barring a loss to Newcastle on Monday, Chelsea will be all-out to try and win the title.

If Fulham win, and Bolton win, and Reading lose, it would leave

Bolton 36
Fulham 33
----------------
Reading 33
Birmingham 32

and with their much better goal difference over both Reading and Fulham I would expect them to be safe, as there would be at least 10 in the goal difference between Bolton and Reading...

Now if Birmingham win, Fulham will be as good as relegated, leaving...

Bolton 36
Birmingham 35
------------------
Reading 33

Again 10 goals the difference, but when its Chelsea v Bolton, Derby v Reading, there's all the possibility , but not only would Reading need to win, Birmingham would have to pick up at least a point against European Challengers Blackburn to be certain of safety....


Looking at it from Reading's point of view though, Spurs only have 2 away wins, and Derby only have 1 win all season, So they will believe they have every possibility of getting some points on the board, and with the worst goal difference out of all the relegation candidates, they will know that they must pick up AT LEAST 1 point against Spurs, otherwise they will be in the bottom 3 going into the last day of the season.

This is how I see the battle going anyway....

Fulham v Birmingham = Fulham
Reading v Spurs = Draw

Table @ 5pm Saturday

16 Reading 34
17 Bolton 33
-------------
18 Fulham 33
19 Birmingham 32

Bolton v Sunderland = Draw


Table after 37 games...

16 Bolton 34
17 Reading 34
-------------------
18 Fulham 33
19 Birmingham 32


Birmingham v Blackburn = Draw
Chelsea v Bolton = Chelsea
Derby v Reading = Reading
Pompey v Fulham = Last Gasp Fulham Winner

16 Reading 37
17 Fulham 36
-----------------
18 Bolton 34
19 Birmingham 32


That's my prediction anyway
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[spider2097]

Bet365 currently run the following prices :

Fulham 1.11
Birmingham 2.00
Bolton 2.75
Reading 3.20
Boro 26.00
Wigan 51.00

The Fulham price is interesting as it's slightly longer than just before I started this thread. I am a little bit concerned about my bet on Bolton to go down - taken at 7/2 on March 1st - with Sunderland's win against Boro, securing their Premiership status, meaning that they can afford to relax a little in the upcoming match against the Trotters.

It's arguable that at this stage a bet on Birmingham is quite possibly a top shout although it's surely clear that the match between Fulham & Brum will have a huge say in the final outcome should either side win the match. I would argue that instead of betting on the match, anyone who feels that Fulham will win this match would be better served taking "Fulham not to be relegated @ 6.00" (Bet365) as I'm pretty sure 4 points could be enough to see them safe especially if Bolton don't keep it tight at the back against Chelsea & fail to beat Sunderland.

PS. Inatimate1 - I know Derby are woeful but since when does beating them get you 13pts?
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[Inatimate1]

Sorted now spider

The thing about the "Fulham not to go down bet" @ 5/1 is that its a huge price to be offering.
Given their recent form, I would expect them to beat Birmingham, their home form isn't as woeful as their away form and it has been the form which has kept them in the Premiership over the past few seasons. They also have a better GD than Reading, so a win against Birmingham could see them outside of the relegation zone if results go their way, and Pompey would have to be one of the best teams to play on the last day of the season, seeing as they have a cup final to look forward to. Birmingham and Bolton are both playing teams who will have a target to aim for on the last day, and I would definately fancy Fulham to get at least 4 points from their last 2 games. There always seems to be some sort of fairytale story to the Premiership, and Fulham's survival could well be the one this year. They were backed as low as 1.01 on Betfair on Saturday for relegation, so I hope that they stay up. They must be the only team that can consistantly show that you can stay in the top flight even if you only win 5% of your away matches in a season.
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[bottomlesspit]

Just been on the predictor......

I have Bolton to go down with Brum, but it is a labyrinth of ifs and buts....

[luisboagale1985]

Took the 6/1 today as a Fulham fan...!!!

My dad was fortunate to take 28s somewhere after we lost to Liverpool...

The great escape is still on!!!
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[mattpjl]

READING will stay up- thaey will beat Derby tomorrow away from home, Fulham will drop points at Portsmouth-draw at best and Birmingham will not beat Blackburn- that is the way i see it and that is the way ultimatley i believe it will go.

[dorrian3]

i think fulham will win today at pompey as they have stepped it up in the last 3 or 4 weeks

reading and birmingham to go down