Football - Monday 05.05.08

[phil00]

Torquay v Exeter
Torquay @ 23/20
Torquay have the lead on aggregate and may try and build on this lead to give them some momentum for the final
Over+2.5 (Total Goals) @ 5/6
Exeter need to score goals and will be going all out to get them as this is potentially their last game of the season. Also they will leave themselves open at the back in doing this and I can see Torquay grabbing a few

Newcastle v Chelsea
Newcastle+1 (Asian Handicap) @ 39/40
Newcastle havent lost many lately but Chelsea really need to win this. I think that Chelsea are the superior side but Chelsea may buckle under the pressure. Newcastle to either draw or lose by the single goal.
Under+2.5 (Goal Line) @ 7/8
Newcastle havent conceded many at home lately and either have Chelsea away in their last few apart from spurs. I think that there will be very few goals

Sigma Olomouc v Slavia Prague
Draw @ 9/4
Sigma may be well down in the league but they have a solid home record losing only 1 all season. Slavia are good away though and I think that Slavias quality will equally matched by Sigmas invincibility at home

AS Trencin v Spartak Trnava
£50 Spartak Trnava @ 4/6
Trnava are in 4th at the moment as Trencin are rock bottom losing 21 out of their 27 league games. One way traffic here

Ljungskile v Gefle IF
Ljungskile (Asian Handicap) @ 17/20
Ljungskile beat IFK in their last home game while Gefle havent won away yet this season
Over+2.25 (Goal Line) @ 43/42
Gelfes defence seems to be leaking goals lately and Ljungskile will take advantage of their shakey defence here

GAIS v IFK Norrkoping
GAIS @ 81/89
IFK Norrkoping havent beaten them since 2000 and I cant see them halting the streak in GAISs back yard
£50 Over+2.5 (Total Goals) @ 5/4
when these teams meet there are plenty of goals and Norrkoping scored four in their last away game so I think overs is a pretty solid price here

AIK v Halmstad
Under+2.5 (Total Goals) @ 7/10
AIK games so far this season havent had many goals and i dont expect many goals in this

Boulogne v Grenoble
Draw @ 9/5
Boulogne have beaten Grenoble away this season but Grenoble are a quality side, I think they will manage to hold Boulogne this time if not beat them

Falkirk v Hearts
Draw @ 12/5
Falkirk have drawn their last 3 home games nil all and Hearts drew their 2 away. These teams are close in the league and I think that home advantage for falkirk will even out Hearts slighly better quality players
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#3 Goals Competition April

[shanghainoon]

As torquay already have the lead i think that they will play defensively and get the draw against exeter.Think newcastle plus 1 is a great price considering their recent form,chelsea find it hard to beat them away from home

Gud Italian tips Saturday

[phil00]

But they would like to have momentum going into the final though so I'm thinking they might push on and go for the win
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#3 Goals Competition April

[thekop]

Going to have a dabble on the Finnish Veikkausliiga.

Haka v KuPS (1.53)

Haka are one of the best teams in Finland. They won the League in the 2004 season and usually end up in the top 4 and there is no indication that this won't happen again. The first game of the season for Haka ended up 0-0 and unfortunately midfielder Cheyne Fowler was sent off for picking up 2 yellow cards. The game was an attacking game and it was surprising it ended up in a goalless draw, Haka will be motivated to pick up 3 points against lowly KuPS.

KuPS were promoted from the Ykkonen (2nd division) last season and will certainly struggle this season. KuPS began with a 3-0 defeat to TPS at home and in the last 8 meetings of the two teams, 7 have been victories for Haka and 1 0-0 draw. In those games Haka have scored 17 goals, KuPS have scored a mere 4 goals.

The difference in class is huge and odds of 1.53 are certainly worth jumping on!

[soulseec]

I agree with you about Chelsea, because they need to win today, there's only 2 maches left and maybe MU will lose or play in draw against Wigan, so it's good chance to take a cup for Chelsea, the result will be 0:1 or 0:2, Chelsea win and there will be under 2,5 - 100%

[Blakey24]

Hmm im heavily fancying overs in Chelsea game. Newcastle have had agreat end to the season and this is a chance to attack the best team in the league and put ona show for their fans. They are going to attack thats for certain. Their players will be so up for this game. If they score 1 well Chelsea then have to go all out for the win as a draw is no good. Can see an end to end game and lots of goals.

[spider2097]

Just after a few thoughts on the following, have been playing around on the dutching calculator from oddschecker.com* & think have come up with a bit of a result with the Newcastle v Chelsea match It's awfully close to being an arb I think...

By dutching "Newcastle +1.5 AH @ 1.43" & "Chelsea - 2 AH @ 4.3", final price becomes (approx) 1.07. The only way you actually lose money would be a Chelsea victory by 2 goals - which would lose (approx) 3/4 of your total stake.

In head to head Premiership matches between the two sides at St. James' Park, Newcastle have the better history winning 7 out of the 14, drawing 4 matches but losing 3. The three losses were only by 1 goal.

This does actually bode well for "Newcastle +1.5 AH" as this would have won in all 14 league matches (at St.James' Park) and would also have won in the three Cup games between the two sides at SJP. In those Cup matches, the honours are split evenly at 90 minutes W1 D1 L1 - the drawn match did finish a Chelsea win after extra time however.

* - http://www.oddschecker.com/betting-tools/dutching-calculator.html

Prices seen at Bet365
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[talisman]

is overrated imo

[talisman]

i also think that Celsi should be able to win at the end of the day otherwise all the toils during season will be given for nothing.i dont think World beaters will give this up so easily.

[king pete]

Newcastle Vs Chelsea - AWAY WIN
This is a must win game for Chelsea if their to keep their title hopes alive.United went out and got the job done against Westham in good style and now Chelsea have to win to pull themselves back level on points.I dont think it will be easy though as Newcastle have improved alot in recent weeks.They have gone seven games, winning four and drawing three.Their defence which has let them down all season has finaly been looking a bit more solid keeping four clean sheets in their last six games but it will be interesting to se how they cope against Chelsea.Im still not convinced that that back four will be good enough next season and think Keegan will need to spend some money on it in the summer.They were poor against Westham though lto but had enough upfront to come back and nick a point.Chelsea come here in high spirits after beating Liverpool in the semi final of the Champions League.They have done superb to take the title race this far.They looked as though they would drop away but they kept on going and sneaking them 1-0 wins to take over Arsenal for 2nd place and can take the title race into the last day with a win here.Looking at recent history though i was very suprised to see that Chelsea havnt won at St James Park since 2001, thats five visits ago.They have beaten Newcastle nine times since though while Newcastle have won only four.Chelsea look solid at the back again just recently with a strong back four in Ferreira, Carvalho, Terry and Cole.Drogba looked alot better against Liverpool and he will be causing Newcastle's defence problems.Chelsea have a fully fit squad to choose from while Newcastle hope to have Viduka available after struggling with an Achilles injury and Milner, Edgar and Faye should also be fit enough.I think this will be a close game but Chelsea will be up for this more and if Drogba is at his best Newcastle could struggle to keep him quiet.It might be another game where Chelsea score one or two and then sit tight.Im going for an away win 1-0 though.
AWAY WIN
Correct Score: 1-0 @ 6/1 with Betfred
First Scorer: Drogba @ 9/2 with Bet365
Scorecast:Drogba/1-0 @ 20/1 VC Bet

Good Luck People

[welshie1]

Under 2.5 in Newcastle-Chelsea match @ 1.84

Chelsea with Avram Grant are very hard to beat and they dont concede many goals, especially away from home. Chelsea have kept a clean sheet in 3 of their last 4 away Premier League matches. The Kevolution is now well underway at Newcastle and they also are looking very hard to beat. They have won 3 straight at home without conceding, although they were against much weaker opposition than Chelsea. It was 2-1 at the Bridge earlier on this season but it was a controversial Kalou goal that won it for the Blues. 7 of the last 9 meetings between these two have been under 2.5 and the last 6 in Newcastle have been under 2.5, so I see the trend continuing today.

Sigma Olomouc +0.25 v Slavia Prague @ 2

Slavia Prague looked like they were going to be crowned champions about a month ago but isnt it funny how things change in football. Slavia now find themselves 4 points behind their rivals Sparta at the top and they need to win every match and hope for a Sparta slip up now. But I dont see either happening as Sparta have momentum and Slavia are really struggling. They have won just 1 of their last 6 and 2 of their last 10 on the road, and were beaten 3-1 by FK Teplice in their last away match. Sigma Olomouc are comfortable in mid table but they wont Lay down and let Slavia win no chance. They are very good at home they have lost just 1 of their 13 home matches this season in the Gambrinus Liga. That defeat came in March but they have won 3 of their last 4 without conceding at home. Sigma dont have a bad record against Slavia they have won 3 of their last 4 meetings in Olomouc and held Slavia to a 0-0 draw back in November.

FC Copenhagen to beat AC Horsens @ 1.65

FC Copenhagen have been going through a terrible run of form recently but a win against Esbjerg last week will have given them some confidence and I expect them to carry that on to this game today. Copenhagen have not won in 3 away matches since they beat Viborg 3-2 but I do expect them to win this one and rescue an European place. Horsens were hard to beat at home but they have lost 2 of their last 4 at home against leaders Aalborg and Brondby two teams very similar to Copenhagen, the home team dont have much to play for and they also have an awful record against the men from the capital. Copenhagen have won their last 9 matches against the home side including 4 in Horsens and it may be difficult for them today.

Grenoble Foot to beat Boulogne @ 2.5

This is a very big match for both clubs, Grenoble are looking to hold on to that 3rd spot which will lead them to Ligue 1, while Boulogne are looking to stay up and are 2 points off relegation at the moment. I think Grenoble will win this one as there is no doubting they are the bigger club and have the better players. They have gone 4 matches unbeaten on the road and all the top sides have found it hard playing against them. They are managed by Mehmed Bazdarevic who led FC Istres to Ligue 1 in 2004 and also reached the African Champions League Final with Etoile of Tunisia in 2005. Boulogne are inconsistent at home and that has led to their downfall, they have the ability to win this one but Grenoble will be up for it aswell and as I said they have the better players. Grenoble will win a very tight match.

Draw in Falkirk-Hearts match @ 3.5

I just cant see past the draw between these two, its one of those end of season matches with hardly anything to play for and I dont see it being a great encounter to be honest. Falkirk have drawn 3 straight home games all 0-0s which shows a bit they are already thinking of summer. Hearts have drawn their last 2 away games but they are very difficult to beat on the road and could be the ones that want the game more. But I still see this one being a draw, 3 of the last 6 meetings between the two have been drawn and I see this one going the same way.
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[martingardner1]

Chelsea - Newcastle

I expect Chelsea to win here - they'd showed in midweek again how they can play when they need / desire enough to win. Instead I'm looking at the overs, unders market for a little more value. It all depends on how up for the match Newcastle are. Chelsea are one of the best teams at shutting out a team when they need to win and get in front, which would look to be either a 1-0 or 2-0 win. Although if Newcastle actually play Chelsea and score first I'd cover the first bet with betting my money in-play on overs Chelsea and possibly a 2-1 correct score