Football Selections - Sun 11.05.08

[peterbradyuk]

right i'm gona throw out a wild suggestion here, derby to beat reading

derby 6.4
reading 1.69
draw 4.4

remember though that reading haven't scored for 6 games now, and derby got 2 against arsenal,1 against blackburn and even 1 away to chelsea. so it could be the worst attacking side(reading) against the worst defensive side(derby) but reading have also let in 41 away from home which is crazy and the pressure on them in the game will be horrible, couple that with the fact that derby would LOVE to give their home fans a win on th last day of the season.

i aint saying that debry are the favourite's here, but i think they'll score, and odds of 6.4 seems far too high for me considering the facts

constructive criticism here please

[hornybaby90]

peter, I see logic in your choice, and at the moment the most likely team that Derby would pick up a win against would be Reading.

However...

This game is going to mean an awful lot to Reading, they are in the relegation zone and really need to win to have any chance of staying up. You even mentioned yourself that Derby have the worst defence, so are always likely to concede a goal, they have only kept 3 clean sheets in 37 premier league matches which would suggest that they are going to concede, even with Readings poor attack at the moment.

I would personally swerve this bet, as realistically any outcome would not be a shock. I have a sneaky feeling though that Reading will come away with this with the 3 points although it will probably be by the odd goal which makes Under 2.5 goals at 2.18 look appealing. Alternatively if you fancy a Derby win, why not Lay Reading at 1.6, which is ridiculously short for a team that has not scored for six games against leaky defences such as Spurs, Wigan and Fulham.

[greek elvis]

Wow, Peter, you might just have something there! Unfortunately I am not as brave as you and have gone with Spurs cos I made a loss last week
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[hornybaby90]

A general tip here, but in the games where there isn't much to play for this weekend it could be worth looking at the 'no booking' market which is frequently around 15 - 20/1.

Blackburn v Derby and Liverpool v Man City last weekend produced no bookings - Mike Halsey (Liverpool v Man City game) did not look like wanting to give one either despite in a mid-season match he would have been likely to produce at least 3.

3 other games (Arsenal v Everton), (Bolton v Sunderland) and (Reading v Spurs) all had one booking each, some of these games teams did have something to play for but it could also be the end of season kindness or exhaustion playing a part.

My suggestion looking at the weekends games would be in particular:

Everton v Newcastle
Middlesborough v Man City
Sunderland v Arsenal
Spurs v Liverpool
West Ham v Villa

Each of these games the teams have nothing really to play for so make ideal candidates for 'a friendly atmosphere' with little or no bookings.

If you got odds of 15/1, then only one would need to have no bookings in order to triple your money. In particular Liverpool (best disciplinary record) vs Spurs (3rd best disciplinary record). Although Uriah Rennie is the referee which doesn't fill me with confidence.

Now i've mentioned this the likelyhood is that all of them will have a booking but thought it was worth mentioning!

On the other hand, a less risky bet would be to look for low bookings points such as under 25 bookings points, which leaves a bit of scope for the odd card.

Good Luck

[bottomlesspit]

Horny - that is a brilliant spot. Verging on genius even.

Tell me which bookies offer this and I may flatter you further......

[gecko6]

agreed - super tip HB

the refs tend to ease off after xmas and much more so in the last wks of the season... I used to do the spreads and they were often as low as 17-20 (10 for a yellow) on these sort of games

maybe backing under the spread / points depending on which bookie on all these games might be a plan

just checked and Sporting Index have spurs/liv at 22-25 so 2 yellows or less is a profit

[peterbradyuk]

basically i think that derby will grab a goal, not too confident that they'll get two but also not confident that reading can hold a clean sheet there.

so in my opinion the question is how many goals are reading gona get? i wa thinkin bout backin derby for the win and draw, wouldn't this get me better odds of simply straight laying reading?

any strong derby or reading supporters on the site with any team news? also apologies about posting this thread so early in the week but wanted some good views on it, v. good opportunity in my eyes

thanks to all for replying especially hornby

[hornybaby90]

I can't see any bookmakers offering prices at the moment...

However, PaddyPower are offering a bookings market on the televised play off final on Friday evening so probably will add the markets over the coming days, they do have it priced up at a rather poor 12/1 though, I was hoping for a bit better than that. Watch this space though, I will update when I get hold of anything!!

PS. If this is the case Paddy Power do a very good account opening offer, Bet £30 in one go and receive 3 x £10 bets (1 per week), £30 on something at 15/1 could be very tasty!!

Edit: SkyBet offer 12/1 on there to be no cards in the Wigan v Man Utd match, which is not one of the 5 that were signalled out, but looks likely they will have a market for it eventually. As these games are on a Sunday I guess they are slower than normal with the odds

[hornybaby90]

Peter, In response to your last message, if you Lay Reading at 1.6 you will probably get similar odds to backing Derby or Draw. I have calculated it below:

If you Lay Reading on Betfair you can stake £6 and if Reading fail to win you will receive £10 + your £6 stake = £10 profit.

If you back 'Derby or Draw' on PaddyPower and stake £6 @ odds of 2.30 then if Reading fail to win you will receive £7.80 + your £6 stake = £7.80 profit.

Obviously the bookies have a margin meaning their odds are unlikely to truly be fair but the odds do seem simlar, although in this case, laying Derby on Betfair looks the better option (unless you can find better odds on 'Derby or Draw' at another bookmaker).

[Inatimate1]

Blackburn to beat Birmingham for me, odds are totally crazy being against Birmingham.
Surely there performance against Fulham sums Birmingham up perfectly, they don't seem to have the mentality to convert passion into goals, and with Blackburn needing to win to get a back door into Europe next season through the inter-toto, I think that they are going to be just as fired up as Birmingham, and Santa Cruz has been fantastic for them this season. If it was any earlier in the season, Blackburn probably would have been slight favourites here, both teams still have goals to aim for, and I think that it should go the way of the visitors here. Blackburn -1 is 7.54 on Bet365 and is definately a price I would take any day of the week in all honesty


Blackburn -1 on the AH @ 7.54 (Bet365)
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[fianna]

I think the Derby Reading game is one to stay away from, form books out the window, I see Reading putting 4 past Derby , much better team!

Everton vs Newcastle - EVERTON

Only the top 4 has took more at home, + Man City .. Newcastle beat by Chelsea didnt look to good dispite their recent revival, who have nothing to play for vs a good everton side with the chance to seal 5th place!

Home win

[Online Trader]

HB
Good spot there mate.
The only thing I would say is not to include the Everton or Villa games, these 2 have a lot to play for - 5th place and a European spot, more so with Villa as they need to win to ensure a top 6 finish let alone 5th, also Nigel Reo Coker back at West Ham is almost a shoe in for a booking
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