Football Selections - Sun 11.05.08

[alfran]

...with the stats on these two teams I think the under 2.5 goals is a good shout in this match. 5 of Boro's last 6 home games have been under and 3 of City's last away games have also been under. Boro don't tend to score at a high rate but neither do they concede many. With little or nothing to play for, a demoted Man City side due to the Sven business won't be breaking their necks! After their failing against Fulham last week they won't want to further embarrass their manager and so a virtual stalemate situation could arise before the players nip off to catch their holiday flights!

[bigmoose]

With reference HB90's Match to think about No Cards:
1. Great Idea
2. This is also my list of games to think very very carefully before betting anything on the Goals or 1X2 markets.

Two years ago I went to see Pompey home to Liv on the last day of last season, pompey had survived relegation the weekend before. The game had less passion & effort than a pre-season friendly. Yet a season or two earlier i was at another meaningless match last day (Pompey home to Boro), it finished 5-1 to pompey. Hot sunny weather doesn't help players bust a gut for it if they really don't want it either.

Pompey v Fulham: DRAW. Pompey have a few really commited players who would even fight to win a game of tiddlywinks down the pub. The Cup Final back4 and central midfield will be assembled and all out for another clean sheet. But the difference in current form coupled with pompey's home record suggests it won't be the home win.

Derby v Reding: DRAW. I'm not seeing the value in 6.2 for Derby home win. They've won ONE from EIGHTEEN! When they wanted it & before Jewell through in the premiership survival towel i wouldn't fancy the home win, even less so now it's break-up for summer hols day. But Reading's form and lack of goals make the away win far less likely than the tiny price on offer.
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Steve

[hornybaby90]

Update on the cards betting.

The Five games that were selected are not being classified as 'on TV' by every bookies I have checked. The other five matches that are classified as 'on TV' have odds ranging from 11/1 - 20/1 for there to be no booking.

At the moment, the only bookings odds on these games I can find is:

Everton v Newcastle - Under 2.5 cards @ 1.72
Middlesbrough v Man City - Under 1.5 cards @ 2.10
Sunderland v Arsenal - Under 2.5 cards @ 1.61
Spurs v Liverpool - Under 2.5 cards @ 1.57
West Ham v Villa - Under 2.5 cards @ 2.25

All of these odds are from Bet365.

I know that this is currently a bit disappointing but I will keep checking to see if a market gets opened and will report back tomorrow around midday. Is it worth calling a couple to see if they will open a market on it?

Alternatively, those five could be put into an accumulator which is priced at about 20/1, or perhaps some trebles or fourfolds (or even a Canadian).

Apologies for not being the bearer of better news, if anyone else finds a market anywhere please make it known so I can stop searching...!!!

[/b]

[stubbertime]

Does anyone think real madrid away to zaragoza is a huge price for a madrid win 3.40?

also like looks of juventus away to catania 1.80 and fiorentina chasing 4th 1.80 away to lowly parma.

[Betfairalfie]

Cards - I would have said that the spread betting markets will be best BUT Sporting Index go 19-22 for Boro/City. Very low, so maybe they know already

[fianna]

stubbertime....You got where Madrid where playing right an thanks for pointing out the price, gonna have a closer look at it tomorrow.

Juve & Fiorentina are both playing the respective teams you pointed out, but both teams are playing at home, Ive had my eye on these games from during the week an feel their good shouts for home wins, along with Udinese at home to Cagliari.


Fiorentina vs Parma - Parma havnt won an away game all season only picking up points in 7 of them. Fiorentina has won 6 of their last 7 at home in the league.
Fiorentina -0.5 @ 1.85 Bet365


Juve vs Catania - Catania again havnt won a game this season when playing away in the league, 6 draws, they have lost 11 of their last 12 away an have only scored more than 1 goal in 1 of them, their very 1st away game of the season at Parma, they have also failed to score in 8 of the 18 played when away. Juves won their last 4 home matches scoring 12 goals.
Juve -0.5 @ 1.80 Bet365
halftime/fulltime- Juve/Juve @ 2.88 PaddyPower
Juve -1.5 @ 2.95 Bet365


Udinese vs Cagliari - Cagliari has won 2 away all season, 1 of them coming on the 13th of April against Livorno an the other being in their 1st away game of the season, with them 2 wins Cagliari has only picked up points in another 4 of their matches. Udinese has won 4 of their last 6 at home, 1 draw an only tasted defeat when Roma visited
Udinese @ 2.1 Bet365

[KanKeano]

Not having a bet on the Premiership today. The final Sunday always brings shocks. I expect Utd and Chelsea to win but the odds are prohibitive. The one bet I have got riding on todays matches is one I placed a few months ago for Everton to finish top without the big 4. Got a decent return if that comes in so I'm happy with just that.

Elsewhere, in Finland I fancy MIFK to get a result at Jaro

Finnish Veikkausliiga - FF Jaro v IFK Mariehamn

Tip: Double Chance - X2 / 1.57 @ Bet365

The bookmakers have got FF Jaro as favourites for this match but the stats tell a different story.
IFK Mariehamn are currently on a 6 match winning streak 'on the road' spread over the end of last season and the beginning of the new one. They are a much better team away from the Wiklof Arena losing just 2 of their last 12. Mariehamn have won 2 from 3 league matches at the start of this season and have drawn 2 and won 1 in their last 3 meetings at the Jakobstatds Centralplan.
FF Jaro have finished in the bottom 4 in each of the last 4 seasons without ever being relegated and they are again expected to struggle this season. They have won 1 and drawn 1 from their 3 matches but scored only the 1.
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"The biggest regret of my whole football career was leaving White Hart Lane in 1970.....I was heartbroken" - Jimmy Greaves. Greatest ever English striker, bar none [464 goals in 657 matches for club & country]

[Antony OLBG]

I agree with the poster above about the Boro City game being potentially very dull especially with City looking to avoid bookings

I quite like the look of the clean sheet markets
Boro 2.8
City 4.7
Plus 0-0 at 11

[johno]

Certainly agree with the City and Boro game being one of those games where it will be anything but, drab.

0-0 or 1-1 draw, I cant see either side really inspiring much now. Cant even see a good fairwell win for Sven from this city side.

Should be a great Sunday for matches

Boro v City - Draw @ 2.4
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OLBG Member: 189

[alfran]

KanKeano....

Of course any bet is a 'point of view' and so don't shoot the messanger...but I think you will find that FF Jarro have been placed as slight favourites by the bookies because I believe they have a 100% home record this year with 4 home wins out of 4, scoring 11 goals and conceding 4. Their last home game but one, they beat FC Inter 1 0 who I'm sure you know are currently top of the Veikkausliiga.
Mariehamn have played 4 matches away from home this year so far. They have won 2 drawn 1 and lost 1, goals for 7 against 5.
Who knows, you could be right on this but I think I would prefer the DNB option if I were to follow this bet...which I am not going to. Good luck anyway mate as we all love to see the bookies bashed!

[STUBBLE]

Rare to have a final day in the Prem with so much undecided.

Chelsea v Bolton - the rumour mill has it that the Bolton players have been spending most of this week partying after virtually securing their status for next season. You would expect Chelsea to win this and they could win it by several but there are a couple of factors that would put me off the idea of them overcoming a big handicap

1) their overall tendency to only do just enough, made even more likely by the fact that the winning margin is irrelevant in terms of the title.
2) the likelihood of bad news filtering through from Wigan killing the game.

Dipping into the AGS market, Ballack has scored 7 goals in 17 league games since returning from injury, and given that he takes free kicks, is an aerial danger from corners and is second in line to take pens, he seems reasonably priced to get on the scoresheet at 11/4.

BALLACK TO SCORE ANYTIME***


Birmingham v Blackburn - this is the time of season where teams are priced up on what they need, rather than what they are capable of getting.

With the home team desperately needing the points to try and avoid relegation, they are made firm favourites while Blackburn are priced at a generous looking 11/4. However, Birmingham will be without McFadden and Ridgewell for this one and their rare home points against top half teams have tended to be fortunate (Man City poor on their travels, Arsenal rocked by Eduardo injury early on, Everton struggling for form at the time and Liverpool fielding second string). Also, they have found it difficult to defend set pieces due to a lack of height in the team and the likes of Santa Cruz, Roberts and Samba will be looking forward to testing them out.

Blackburn have a fine 6-2-1 away record to bottom half teams and had a confidence boosting win over Derby last time. They could still get sixth place which would mean an Intertoto spot, and even without that incentive, I would expect Mark Hughes' side to give it their best.

BLACKBURN TO WIN***

Everton v Newcastle - surprisingly, Everton are actually fairly priced at 5/6 for this game. The key to me for this game is not Everton needing the points to stay fifth, but the absence of Mark Viduka. When Viduka starts and plays the majority of games, he gives the Newcastle attack a focal point that they otherwise lack. It was noticeable when he was subbed at half time against Chelsea, just how little they threatened to score in the second half. The stats since Keegan arrived seem to bear that out - without Viduka starting, they have a 0-2-6 record with just 3 goals scored. With Viduka starting and playing more than an hour, they have a 4-3-0 record with 14 goals scored.

The above could mean that the Toffees may only need one goal to take the points, which may be just as well given the lack of goals coming from their forwards. In fact, defensive players have been the ones finding the net in recent weeks, none more so than Lescott. He has 7 league goals this season and odds of 6/1 for him to score here are fair value particularly given a weakness in the Newcastle backline when defending set pieces.

EVERTON TO WIN***
LESCOTT TO SCORE ANYTIME**

Portsmouth v Fulham - not confident of a home victory here particularly given the absence of James and probably Campbell, and with the FA Cup final next week. However, it is silly season for prices and under any other circumstances, the home win would be nowhere near 15/8. Fulham are in good form but are they good enough to go to Fratton and get the points they need?

PORTSMOUTH TO WIN**
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If you fire enough arrows, one or two are bound to hit the target

[tomario]

Heres a bet thats worth a quid.
Bolton to be relegated @125/1
It would mean that Reading have to make up 11 goals to go above Bolton.
But Chelsea could easily score 6 against Bolton and that would mean that Reading would have to score 5 or 6 against the worst team in Premiership history.

Something more sensible.

Middlesbro are a huge price (Evens) to win at home against a team in termoil. Middlesbros home record recently is pretty good and they should be comfortable winners 2 or 3 nil.

Portsmouth (2/1) should have too much for Fulham and you can get a massive 2/1 for Defoe to score anytime!

West Ham to beat Aston Villa @ 2/1
Aston Villa are so frustrating as they can't string results together. Usually they win one draw one and lose two. They are due to lose today against a West Ham team who played well within themselves at Man United.
3-1 to the Hammers.

Middlesbro, Portsmouth and West Ham to win, in a Patent (pays about 45/1)
Middlesbro to win 3-0 @17/1
Defoe to score anytime @2/1
West Ham to win 3-1 @22/1
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