Football Selections - Sat 17.05.08 (Non FA Cup)

bottomlesspit · Group 1 Class Joined: 11 May 2007 Posts: 322

I remember one of the posters last year highlighting the liklihood of overs on the last day of the season (can no longer find the thread)
I had a nice 4-way acca last week, and would have hit the jackpot on a 5-timer had Sunderland or Arsenal bothered themselves to score a third. Bah!

Anyway - here are the results on the last day in Germany for the last 2 years...

2007
VfL Wolfsburg - Werder Bremen 0:2
Eintracht Frankfurt - Hertha BSC 1:2
Bayer Leverkusen - Borussia Dortmund 2:1
Hannover 96 - 1. FC Nürnberg 0:3
Bayern München - 1. FSV Mainz 05 5:2
FC Schalke 04 - Arminia Bielefeld 2:1
Borussia M'gladbach - VfL Bochum 0:2
Hamburger SV - Alemannia Aachen 4:0
VfB Stuttgart - Energie Cottbus 2:1

2006

Hannover 96 - Bayer Leverkusen 2:2
Eintracht Frankfurt - Borussia M'gladbach 0;2
Bayern München - Borussia Dortmund 3:3
1. FC Nürnberg - Hertha BSC 2:1
VfL Wolfsburg - 1. FC Kaiserslautern 2:2
Hamburger SV - Werder Bremen 1:2
FC Schalke 04 - VfB Stuttgart 3:2
MSV Duisburg - 1. FSV Mainz 05 0:0
1. FC Köln - Arminia Bielefeld 4:2

4 games unders in 18
I have no particular recommendations, but thought it might be worth flagging up again if anyone fancies digging a few out themselves

welshie1 · Posted: Fri May 16, 2008 11:57 pm Post subject:

top day for European football enthusiasts like myself, hope these tips come in if you decide to back Win

Rochdale to beat Darlington @ 2.1

3 of the 4 second leg playoff matches this week have been won by the home side, Leeds are the only away team to win and Rochdale could continue the trend of home winners in this one. Dale ended the season very strongly at home going 8 matches unbeaten, winning 7 of those 8. Last week in Darlo I thought they were very unlucky, they were the better team in the second half and the two lads up front Dagnall and Howe really impressed me and were a constant threat in the second half. Darlo won their last away match at promoted Peterborough but before that they had gone 6 away matches without a win and they have not enjoyed their trips to the North West recently losing at Wrexham, Stockport and Chester. The only worry about Rochdale is their Goalkeeper who usually is 3rd choice as he looked very shaky last week but the experience of a big match will have done him some good. Rochdale beat Darlo 3-1 at Spotland on New Years Day and I think they have a good chance of repeating that success today.

Wolfsburg to beat Borussia Dortmund @ 2.15

Wolfsburg are one of 4 teams vying for 3 of 4 European spots and they will give themselves a great chance by beating Dortmund. The home side are already in Europe after they finished runners up in the German Cup Final against Bayern Munchen. Wolfsburg have lost just 1 of their last 5 away matches in the Bundesliga and have scored 5 goals in their last two away matches. They are Coached by the very experienced Felix Magath and he will make sure they are focused and up for this one and that will give them a great chance of winning this one.

Draw in Hannover-Cottbus match @ 3.8

This game will have a real end of season feel to it in my opinion, Cottbus are safe and Hannover cant move up the table, so a point for both sides could be a decent result. Hannover have been playing quite well at home recently, they are unbeaten in their last 6 home matches and those results have been a bit of a mix bag as they have played some good teams and some of the leagues weaker sides. Bojan Prasnikar has done a great job keeping Cottbus up but that has been mostly down to good home form. They have won just once away from home in the league this season, otherwise they have drawn 7 and lost 8. Cottbus can do something they havent done for weeks in this one and that is enjoy a football match and knowing they dont have to look at other results or worry what happens. That could work well and they should be able to get a point.

Stockport to beat Wycombe @ 2.1

Stockport impressed me last week to battle from a goal down to get a 1-1 draw at Adams Park and I fancy them to win this one and advance to Wembley. Stockport ended the season strongly at home winning 6 of their last 7, only champions MK Dons won in that 7 game spell, a 3-2 thriller. Wycombe have been inconsistent on the road recently, their last 6 matches reads, 2 wins, 1 draw and 3 losses. They are a decent outfit but Wycombe hate Stockport and that is shown historically. Last season they were hammered 6-0 at Edgeley Park and they have gone 9 matches unbeaten against them at home, winning 7 of those matches. History is on Stockports side and so is their recent home form.

St Etienne to beat Monaco @ 1.75

Another big game to end the season between St Etienne and Monaco. St Etienne are in 6th place at the moment and that will give them Intertoto Cup football next season but Rennes are on level points but face a very tough trip to Nancy. St Etienne are only a point off 5th placed Nice who make a tough trip to Lorient, so St Etienne know they need a win. St Etienne have lost just once at home in the league all season and have conceded just 4 goals which is fantastic. They are producing some very good talent like Loic Perrin and Gomis up front while they also have the likes of Feindouno, Douala and Ilan. Monaco have been improving recently and have kept 3 succesive away clean sheets but in their last away match at Lens they lacked ideas in my opinion and will find it tough at fortress Stade Geffroy-Guichard.

Barcelona to beat Murcia @ 1.67

Its Frank Rijkaards last match as Barcelona Manager and he will be hoping for a win at already relegated Murcia. Barca have lost their last 3 away matches and it was back in January or February when they last won an away match on Spanish soil. Murcia have found it tough and that is seen in their league position, they are 3 home matches without a win, losing 2 of those 3 matches including a 4-1 drubbing at the hands of Mallorca. Barca have won the last 3 meetings between the two without conceding, including a 4-0 win at the Nou Camp back in January and I expect them to win this one.
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alfran · Posted: Sat May 17, 2008 12:34 am Post subject: GERMANY BUNDESLIGA 1

BAYERN MUNICH V HERTHA BSC BERLIN

This match is pretty much a home banker and should have that 'party atmosphere' as Bayern sign off from a tremendous domestic season in front of their own fans. Berlin have nothing to play for as they are currently 9th on 44 points...

This is the last career game for Munich and Germany's goalkeeping legend Oliver Khan. Both he and his defence will be breaking their necks to keep a clean sheet! Also signing off his career is another German legend Hitzfeld the Munich midfield general.

The Bundesliga's top goalscorer Luca Toni has been training all week and is expected to lead the Bayern Munich attack along with Miroslav Klose and Franck Ribery. All 3 players have been training all week and are expected to play. Ribery is being linked with Chelsea and a couple of Italian teams and I expect him to put on a real performance in what could be his last appearance in a Munich shirt?
Berlin will be without Schmidt, Ebert, Grahn and Simunuc...

At 4/11 there isn't much value in this games but the HT/FT Munich win is up for grabs at Bet 365 at a tempting 17/20. Win

fianna · Posted: Sat May 17, 2008 2:22 am Post subject:

Stuttgart vs Arminia Bielefeld
From 4th to 7th place in the Bundesliga are all tied on 51 points each so Stuttgart have a chance of finishing 4th which im sure they'll try to do. they've won their last 6 on the trot at home scoring 21 goals.
Arminia Bielefeld have only won 1 away all season an that was their very 1st one. they have conceded 40 away goals, the worst in the league, there is still a possiblity Arminia can be relegated if they dont win this game depending on what goes on elsewhere but i still think they will be powerless against a strong Stuttgart side in search of 4th place.

Stuttgart -1.5 @ 2.48 Bet365

Ive been looking at a game in the Ukraine league thats kinda baffleing me, if anyone has abit of knowledge about this league id like to hear their opinion.

The match involves Arsenal Kiev vs FK Kharkiv

Reading the form here everything is pointing towards a home win for me, Arsenal Kiev's only loss in their last 11 games has been at the hands of Shakhtar Donetsk. both teams form from last 5 matches played reads...

Arsenal Kiev. 4 wins 1 draw
FK Kharkiv. 1 win 4 loses

At home Arsenal Kiev have won 3 of their last 5, 1 draw an that defeat by Shakhtar. FK Kharkiv away have won 2 of their last 5, but both them wins have been against teams below them in the table. Naftovyk & Zakarpattia who occupy the 2 bottom places off the table.

Them 2 wins on the road against the bottom 2 teams is the only wins they have had this year, they havnt even won a home game. in fact they have only scored 1 goal at home this year with a 1-1 draw with Tavriya in the middle of March. The only teams they have scored against on the road have been them 2 bottom clubs, which they won.

FK Kharkiv are sitting 13th of a 16 team league with the bottom 2 being relegated. So they still have a chance of taking the drop if 2 of the teams below them both win an they dont. with Zakarpattia already resigned to the drop.

Arsenal Kiev are sittin 6th an cant move up or down but reading the form of the teams an considering the only defeat this year they have suffered both home and away was at the hands of Shakhtar an that FK Kharkiv has only scored against 3 teams this year i think that the 3.40 for the Arsenal Kiev win on Bet365 is a massive price Confused

(same price as the draw)

Also something similar going on with the Vorskla vs Naftovyk game with odds of 2.60 for the home win

We got any Ukrainian experts Confused

alfran · Posted: Sat May 17, 2008 3:27 am Post subject:

Fianna....

I don't mean to rain on your parade but I don't think the Stuttgart v Bielefeld game is a foregone conclusion at all!
Bielefeld have lost only 2 of their last 10 games. They also desperately need a point to stay in the Bundesliga 1.
Stuttgart have lost their last two games Wolfsborg 4 1 and Dortmund 3 2. In their game against Wolfsborg they were absolutely woeful.
Stuttgarts recent form of 6 games reads won 2 drawn 0 and lost 4. They have scored 7 but conceded 15!
Stuttgart will be playing with their 19 year old reserve keeper Ulreich in this important match and there is a big question mark over his confidence going into this game. They are also missing Tasci, their captain Meira, Pardo, Marcia and of course their keeper Schafer.
With their previous home form and under normal circumstances I think this would be a good shout but with the situation as it is I think literally ANYTHING could happen in this match... good luck if you've already laid a bet though.. Win

fianna · Posted: Sat May 17, 2008 3:48 am Post subject:

Cheers for the heads up alfran Win

Not gonna be put off by Stuttgarts recent away loses as they have been really poor away all season with only 14 points taking on the road. Home forms a completley different story tho with only 4 teams being able to take points off Stuttgart at home. only the Top Two just slightly better Stuttgart at home on points and only Werder Bermen have won more an scored more than Stuttgart at home also.

The 2 loses you speak of in Bielefelds last 10 have actually been 2 loses in their last 3 away games, last 6 away games read 4 draws 2 loses and with Stuttgart averaging over 3 goals a game from their last 6 home games i'm deffo gonna have a punt on this.

Even if Bielefeld get the point they still have a chance of goin down on goal difference, it will all depend what happens in the Nurnberg vs Schalke game, so i think it'll be safe to say both sides will be going out looking for the win.........If news comes thru' that Schalke take the lead at Nurnberg you might see Bielefeld relax abit, as I'm sure Schalke will be going out looking to win for the chance to finish the league as runners-up!

Cheers again for the heads up mate Win

tonyoni · Posted: Sat May 17, 2008 10:19 am Post subject:

Been looking at your Ukraine tips fianna.

Vorskla-naftohaz Poltava v Naftovik-Ukrnafta
Arsenal Kiev v Fc Kharkiv

As you say, in both games the away team is fighting for survival
and the home team can't meaningfully move up the league.
A draw is no use to either to either team, Naftovyk need the win
unless Kharkiv lose 8-0. The form does point to 2 home wins so
I'll have a small punt on the double @8.84.
If it was nearer payday, I'd do 2 singles instead.
No big money for this as its last day of the season
and its very hard getting info.

SBFCWozza · Group 3 Class Joined: 08 Jun 2007 Posts: 83

Italian Serie B

Frosinone Vs Modena - HOME WIN

You can get odds of 13/5 with VC Bet! The home side have lost just 1 of there last 7 matches and Modena have failed to win in there last 17 matches!

gingerzola · Posted: Sat May 17, 2008 1:53 pm Post subject:

Frosinone 3/1 on Betfred, any idea why so large a price?

alfran · Posted: Sat May 17, 2008 2:09 pm Post subject: ITALIAN SERIE B

gingerzola...

FROSINONE V MODENA

The bookies are not stupid and COULD make a lot of money out of this game...

Frosinone have nothing to play for and are safe in mid table. Much more tellingly though, they have a terrific squad problem (and their squad isn't that big). Their entire defence (first choice) is missing! The two Bochetti brothers, Ischia and Scarlato are all suspended. They have 4 midfielders out through injury, Pecchia, Perra, Amerini and D'Antoni.

Modena HAVE to win this game to avoid the relegation play offs. This game really could go either way, including the draw which the bookies know and is WHY the odds are as they are...good luck whatever you decide! Wink

alfran · Posted: Sat May 17, 2008 2:16 pm Post subject:

Fianna....

You are right of course, in as much as Stuttgart have an awesome home record which doesn't seem to corrolate with their awful away performances. Hopefully you will be ok with this punt but I felt it worth pointing out as things aren't always as they seem between two teams (on paper or stats wise). I suppose that is what the bookies 'feed' on!
The very best of luck with your bet! Win

fianna · Posted: Sat May 17, 2008 4:23 pm Post subject:

I shouldve listened to you alfran, 2-2 it ended . still broke away from germany in profit tho with 4 wins 2 loses so not all bad Win

Sligo vs Bray
Both teams very similar IMO an both in pretty good form, Brays form is just slightly better tho i can see these two canceling each other out.

Draw @ 3.20