2008/09 Ante-Post Handicap Bet

[Sweet FOs]

For the forthcoming 2008/09 season I and hopefully some of you will be attempting a Ante-Post Handicap bet. If you are unaware of this bet it basically involves the bookie giving each team a set number of handicap points prior to the season kick off. These are then added to each teams final league points to give a new total/position.

To predict the winners in all leagues will be very difficult to say the least but the more sensible target is to get our teams placed. The odds and place terms differ slightly from each Division but I suppose equal themselves out in terms of the amount of teams in each league.

The handicap coupons for 08/09 are not out yet but you can roughly imagine what they will be. For example champions Man Utd will once again start with 0, Chelsea a point or 2 on top. Looking back in hindsight Arsenal, who won the 07/08 Handicap with 96pts, surely won’t get the generous figure of 13pts this season. The newly promoted teams in West Brom, Stoke and Hull will probably be given around the 45-50 mark.

In effect the bookies are handing out the handicaps in the hope each teams finishes on the same amount of points. Understandably they don’t do too badly but there are many exceptions. Outsiders Hereford with a handicap of 28pts pulverised the field in Division 2, amassing a whopping 115pts. Whereas MK dons, one of the favs placed in 2nd with 102 pts. Scots Div 3 saw favourites East Fife win the handicap race with the two outsiders in Elgin and East Stirling both claiming a place.

So as you can see this is no easy bet with a mixture of the lowest to the highest handicaps triumphant from last season. Although I don’t have any stats from previous seasons I’m pretty sure this is a popular trend. The majority of teams will remain in the hunt for place claims until the last few games of the campaign certainly giving you a run for your money. You can track your progress as soon as the season starts but it’s not until the latter months you get a real feel for your selections.

Now the hard part, what teams to pick for the bet. See ya later I’m out of here This is the bit where I would like to hear all of your opinions on teams you think are worth considering and why. Some teams make 14 signings in the summer, doesn’t necessarily mean the will do well. A new 25-goal striker, new manager can turn an average team with a fair/high handicap into the surprise of the season. Use all divisions, just the four English or combine with the Scottish. Also looking at the best suitable bet for our chosen number of selections. Possibilities galore but we’ll have some fun in trying to pick those beauties. The handicap list will be out shortly and I will post the all-important figures as soon as possible. I will be using the Hills coupon for 08/09.

Below are the 2007/08 handicap stats for all English and Scottish divisions from the William Hill coupon. It’s a bit long but very useful for any reference. Good luck and thanks to anyone who gets involved.



Hills 2007/08 Ante-Post Handicaps Results


PREMIERSHIP

All teams 15/1- E/W 1/5 Odds – Place 1,2,3,4.


Handicap Pts ~~ League Pts ~~ Total Pts ~~ Team

00~~87~~87 ~ Man Utd
02~~85~~87 ~ Chelsea
08~~86~~84 ~ Liverpool
13~~83~~96 ~ Arsenal
21~~46~~67 ~ Tottenham
28~~43~~71 ~ Newcastle
31~~65~~96 ~ Everton
31~~60~~91 ~ A.Villa
34~~58~~92 ~ Blackburn
34~~57~~91 ~ Portsmouth
34~~49~~83 ~ West Ham
37~~37~~74 ~ Bolton
37~~39~~76 ~ Sunderland
39~~55~~94 ~ Man City
40~~42~~82 ~ Middlesbrough
40~~36~~76 ~ Reading
45~~36~~81 ~ Fulham
48~~35~~83 ~ Birmingham
48~~40~~88 ~ Wigan
50~~11~~61 ~ Derby


Final Position ~ Total Pts ~ Team

01~96 Arsenal
01~96 Everton
03~94 Man City
04~92 Blackburn
05~91 A.Villa
05~91 Portsmouth
07~88 Wigan
08~87 Chelsea
08~87 Man Utd
10~84 Liverpool
11~83 Birmingham
11~83 West Ham
13~82 Middlesbrough
14~81 Fulham
15~76 Sunderland
16~76 Reading
17~74 Bolton
18~71 Newcastle
19~67 Tottenham
20~61 Derby


CHAMPIONSHIP

All teams 15/1- E/W ¼ Odds – Place 1,2,3,4.


Handicap Pts ~~ League Pts ~~ Total Pts ~~ Team

00~~64~~64 ~ Charlton
02~~70~~72 ~ Wolves
02~~81~~83 ~ West Brom
05~~70~~75 ~ Watford
05~~66~~71 ~ Sheff. Utd
07~~54~~61 ~ Southampton
11~~52~~63 ~ Leicester
14~~79~~93 ~ Stoke
15~~55~~69 ~ Sheff. Wed
15~~56~~71 ~ Preston
15~~71~~86 ~ C.Palace
16~~53~~69 ~ Coventry
18~~64~~82 ~ Cardiff
19~~55~~74 ~ Norwich
21~~69~~90 ~ Ipswich
25~~62~~87 ~ Burnley
25~~74~~99 ~ Bristol City
26~~75~~101~Hull
26~~64~~90 ~ Plymouth
30~~58~~88 ~ QPR
31~~38~~69 ~ Colchester
31~~54~~85 ~ Blackpool
34~~46~~80 ~ Scunthorpe
34~~55~~89 ~ Barnsley


Final Position ~ Total Pts ~ Team

01~101 Hull
02~99 Bristol City
03~93 Stoke
04~90 Ipswich
04~90 Plymouth
06~89 Barnsley
07~88 QPR
08~87 Burnley
09~86 C.Palace
10~85 Blackpool
11~83 West Brom
12~82 Cardiff
13~80 Scunthorpe
14~75 Watford
15~74 Norwich
16~72 Wolves
17~71 Preston
17~71 Sheff. Utd
19~69 Colchester
19~69 Coventry
19~69 Sheff. Wed
22~64 Charlton
23~63 Leicester
24~61 Southampton


DIVISION ONE

All teams 15/1- E/W ¼ Odds – Place 1,2,3,4.


Handicap Pts ~~ League Pts ~~ Total Pts ~~ Team

00~~82~~82 ~ Notts Forest
03~~76~~79 ~ Leeds *
06~~92~~98 ~ Swansea
07~~80~~87 ~ Doncaster
08~~52~~60 ~ Millwall
10~~33~~43 ~ Luton *
11~~76~~87 ~ Southend
11~~67~~78 ~ Oldham
13~~80~~93 ~ Carlisle
14~~52~~66 ~ Yeovil
17~~65~~82 ~ Tranmere
17~~66~~83 ~ Huddersfield
20~~54~~74 ~ Hartlepool
19~~55~~74 ~ Gillingham
24~~69~~93 ~ Brighton
24~~53~~77 ~ Bristol Rovers
24~~50~~74 ~ Crewe
24~~61~~85 ~ Swindon
24~~66~~90 ~ Northampton
26~~38~~64 ~ Port Vale
27~~64~~91 ~ Walsall
29~~48~~77 ~ Bournemouth
30~~60~~90 ~ Leyton Orient
32~~51~~83 ~ Cheltenham


Final Position ~ Total Pts ~ Team

01~98 Swansea
02~93 Brighton
02~93 Carlisle
04~91 Walsall
05~90 Leyton Orient
05~90 Northampton
07~87 Doncaster
07~87 Southend
09~85 Swindon
10~83 Cheltenham
10~83 Huddersfield
12~82 Notts Forest
12~82 Tranmere
14~79 Leeds * -15 Deduction
15~78 Oldham
16~77 Bournemouth
16~77 Bristol Rovers
18~74 Hartlepool
18~74 Crewe
20~68 Gillingham
21~66 Yeovil
22~64 Port Vale
23~60 Millwall
24~43 Luton * - 10 Deduction


DIVISION 2

All teams 15/1- E/W ¼ Odds – Place 1,2,3,4.


Handicap Pts ~~ League Pts ~~ Total Pts ~~ Team

00~~92~~92 ~ Peterborough
05~~97~~102~MK Dons
08~~78~~86 ~ Darlington
09~~69~~78 ~ Chesterfield
09~~62~~71 ~ Bradford
12~~59~~71 ~ Brentford
12~~64~~76 ~ Rotherham *
12~~78~~90 ~ Wycombe
13~~82~~95 ~ Stockport
13~~80~~93 ~ Rochdale
13~~48~~61 ~ Notts County
15~~50~~65 ~ Shrewsbury
15~~58~~73 ~ Lincoln
18~~55~~73 ~ Grimsby
23~~49~~72 ~ Dag & Red
24~~40~~64 ~ Wrexham
24~~47~~71 ~ Chester
25~~50~~75 ~ Macclesfield
26~~42~~68 ~ Mansfield
27~~88~~115~Hereford
28~~60~~88 ~ Morecambe
28~~59~~87 ~ Bury
29~~60~~89 ~ Barnet
29~~51~~90 ~ Accrington


Final Position ~ Total Pts ~ Team

01~115 Hereford
02~102 MK Dons
03~95 Stockport
04~93 Rochdale
05~92 Peterborough
06~90 Accrington
06~90 Wycombe
08~89 Barnet
09~88 Morecambe
10_87 Bury
11~86 Darlington
12~78 Chesterfield
13~76 Rotherham * -10 Deduction
14~75 Macclesfield
15~73 Grimsby
15~73 Lincoln
17~72 Dag & Red
17~71 Chester
19~71 Bradford
19~71 Brentford
21~68 Mansfield
22~65 Shresbury
23~64 Wrexham
24~61 Notts County


SCOTS PREMIER

All Teams 9/1 – E/W ¼ Odds - Place 1,2,3.


Handicap Pts ~~ League Pts ~~ Total Pts ~~ Team

00~89~89 ~ Celtic
05~86~91 ~ Rangers
18~38~66 ~ Hearts
20~53~73 ~ Aberdeen
27~52~79 ~ Hibernian
32~40~72 ~ Kilmarnock
38~52~90 ~ Dundee Utd
39~49~88 ~ Falkirk
40~43~83 ~ Inverness
41~60~101~Motherwell
42~13~55 ~ Gretna
46~41~87 ~ St Mirren


Final Position ~ Total Pts ~ Team

01~101 Motherwell
02~91 Rangers
03~90 Dundee Utd
04~89 Celtic
05~88 Falkirk
06~87 St Mirren
07~83 Inverness
08~79 Hibernian
09~73 Celtic
10~72 Kilmarnock
11~66 Hearts



SCOTS DIVISION 1

All Teams 7/1 – E/W 1/5 Odds - Place 1,2,3.


Handicap Pts ~~ League Pts ~~ Total Pts ~~ Team


00~51~51 ~ Dunfermline
03~58~61 ~ St Johnstone
07~69~76 ~ Dundee
11~76~87 ~ Hamilton
15~45~60 ~ Partick
16~39~55 ~ Livingstone
18~37~55 ~ Morton
20~37~57 ~ Clyde
24~52~76 ~ Queen of South
28~24~52 ~ Stirling


Final Position ~ Total Pts ~ Team

01~87 Hamilton
02~76 Dundee
02~76 Queen of South
04~61 St Johnstone
05~60 Partick
06~57 Clyde
07~55 Livingstone
07~55 Morton
09~52 Stirling
10~51 Dunfermline



SCOTS DIVISION 2

All Teams 7/1 – E/W 1/5 Odds - Place 1,2,3.


Handicap Pts ~~ League Pts ~~ Total Pts ~~ Team

00~60~60 ~ Raith
02~73~75 ~ Ross County
04~66~70 ~ Airdrie
08~46~54 ~ Ayr
10~52~62 ~ Brechin
19~55~74 ~ Peterhead
20~16~36 ~ Berwick
21~37~58 ~ Cowdenbeath
23~56~79 ~ Alloa
27~44~71 ~ Queens Park


Final Position ~ Total Pts ~ Team

01~79 Alloa
02~75 Ross County
03~74 Peterhead
04~71 Queens Park
05~70 Airdrie
06~62 Brechin
07~60 Raith
08~58 Cowdenbeath
09~54 Ayr
10~36 Berwick



SCOTS DIVISION 3

All Teams 7/1 – E/W 1/5 Odds - Place 1,2,3.


Handicap Pts ~~ League Pts ~~ Total Pts ~~ Team

00~88~88 ~ East Fife
06~52~58 ~ Abroath
08~65~73 ~ Stranraer
12~48~60 ~ Stenhousemuir
15~37~52 ~ Dumbarton
20~33~53 ~ Forfar
20~59~79 ~ Montrose
32~37~69 ~ Albion
34~47~81 ~ Elgin
35~34~79 ~ East Stirling


Final Position ~ Total Pts ~ Team

01~88 East Fife
02~81 Elgin
03~79 East Stirling
03~79 Montrose
05~73 Stranraer
05~69 Albion
07~60 Stenhousemuir
08~58 Abroath
09~53 Forfar
10~52 Dumbarton

[bigmoose]

They're blimmin hard to pick winners. Reading won the Prem handicap by a country mile with 107 points 2 seasons ago.

I had a dabble last season for the first time in yonks. I had my team Pompey & we were well clear with 4 games to go with the bookie i did it on (which wasn't the same handicaps as in the above post). Altho i eventually lost by 2 or 3 points to Ars & Eve.

Logic i worked on:

1. 96-100 points is quite often the winning score, so don't back ManU or Chelsea. Well don't back anyone who with their handicap don't have the potential to hit 100 points.

2. Shop around. The handicaps seem to fluctuate by upto 5 points from one bookie to the next.
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Steve

[Sweet FOs]

It's been a while since I last dabbled with this bet but from memory I'm with you on the 95-100 being around the mark to base selections on. So yes totally agree on excluding Man U and Chelsea, anything below say 8, Arsenal as well.

There are exceptions like Hereford and Reading in which you can allow for as the aim has to be placing your teams. All winners is a dreamland bonus.

Let's hope them coupons are out soon although there' a big few transfers to be sorted out!

[brewster39]

Moose I was on Pompey as well (didn't realise you were a blue through and through!), can't believe it, if we weren't so bloody good in the FA cup i'm sure we would of won that with Defoe the way he was going !!!
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PLAY UP POMPEY

[bigmoose]

Yep, 1 point from our last 5 games, when 5 points would have won me some money to help pay for next sears season ticket. But i'm def not complaining, happily have lost that bet due to our eyes on the FA Cup meaning i got to be at Wembley when "Sol went up to lift the FA Cup....."

Will be interesting to see what handicaps are in the Prem for 08/09. They still seem to price a lot by summer spending and reputation - Spurs & Newc will both have handicaps so low only die-hard fans will bet on those clubs if last season is anything to go by. I actually got Pompey at 2.25 to finish top half last season before the season started Not a club loyalty decision, it was a totally logical bet. The bookies had us finishing behind Spurs, Newc, Villa, WHam, ManC & BBurn plus Eve & the Big4.
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Steve

[KanKeano]

It's certainly one of the best bets to keep your interest for the season. I had Dundee Utd in the Scottish Premier last season which I thought was a really decent bet but I didn't count on Motherwells resurgence. I think a similar total will win again. ie celtic & Rangers dropping poin ts as they go for European glory.

I have a few teams already earmarked for the divisions this time and I'm just awaiting the markets.

So far I have

Middlesborough - Premiership [If they get 45-50pts start]
Sheffield Utd/Wolves - Championship
Southend - League 1
Lincoln - League 2
Aberdeen - Scottish Prem


Dependent of handicaps.
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[sukiafc]

Hi, I have been doing handicap betting the last 4 seasons with some good success and last 2 yrs some failure so am in a position to give an honest reflection of do's and dont's.
Last yera I managed to get spurs with 28 from boyles which seemed good. Mancity with Bet Direct with plus 45(missed out to Arsenal on last game of the year).

Top tips
1) Definately shop around.
2)But it doesn't neccessarily mean having a BIGGER handicap with one bookmaker on your team is better as its all relevant as the other teams may have a bigger handicap aswell. So get the calculators ready and find out which ones are real value.
3) Bet Each Way still getting 1/3 or 1/4 top 4.
4) Get on early before prices change downside to this is other teams may strengthen considrably before start of season.
5) listen to other views
7) Goodluck

2008/2009
Early impression although no handicaps are out
1) Boro
2) Bolton

[LustForLeith]

I did this last year and just missed out on a couple (Pompey let me down too!)

I take in a few lower league Scottish games and theres a few I'm going to be keeping an eye on.

Hamilton (SPL)

Billy Reid is well respected, he does his homework and will suss out their opponents. They've got two talented youngsters in McCarthy and McCarntey and if they can keep a hold of them until the mid season trasnfer window then they can do well. Also, they only conceeded three goals at home last season. It's a step up to the SPl, but I can see them takign points off a lot of clubs in the big boys league.

Ross County (Scottish First)

Streghend their squad with some SPL and Division One players, they'll be a good side even if they've just been promoted. Losing Andy Barrowman will be a blow but I reckon they'll take some beating.

East Fife (Second Diviosn)

Again a newly promoted team, but Dave Baikie is a well respected coach. Jonny Smart and Steven Tweed are an excellent partnership in defence and they have a good mix of expereinced players. Put off because they might be installed as favouirtes, is so will review this. May go for Ayr who have signed some quailty players.

Third Division ...One of many!

Going to review this when the handicapps are released. East Stirling are a shout. Jim McInally in charge, a couple of decent signings for them and they finished last seaosn strongly and pulled themselfs off the bottom of the league. Also take into accoutn Forfar with Dick Campbell in charge (he's been in charge of six teams who've been promoted). I also like the look of Dumbarton where Jom Chaplain (think thats their gaffer, sorry too early on a Sunday morning!) did well at Albion Rovers. He's looking to find the best from local players and I wouldn't rule them out. Same goes for Stenny. Again, good byunch of signings and John Coughlin won propmotion with Berwick. So after naming half the teams in the league I'll still end up losing! Going to waiy until the handicapps are released.

[welshie1]

sorry to be a bit of a novice here but could someone explain ante post handicaps? I see two of you have Boro(my team) down but I dont know if that's a bad thing or good thing
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[sukiafc]

Breakdown of ante post handicap welshie.

Ante post(before the event starts in this case the football season)

Teams get a handicap of points which are added to the actual points they accumulate over the season. EG If boro get +45points on the handicap and actual achieve 55 points next season they will have 100points.

If Arsenal have 5 point handicap and in reality finish with 90 points they would have 95 points in total. So in comparison to Boro will actually finish beneath them on the handicap table.

Hope this makes sense. Whats your thoughts on Boro next year? Any improvement on the 42 points they got last season?

[GREEN MACHINE]

For the last four years I have won backing Plymouth Argyle E/W on the handicap lists (last season was a very close shave equal 4th with Ipswich)
Again this season I will back them and expect to win. Plymouth are always overlooked and under rated,
Last summer Sylvan Ebanks Blake was generally available @ 100-1 to be championship top scorer if he had been at a more "fashionable" club he would more than likely been 20 to 33-1
Get on Argyle at +28 points

[welshie1]

ok thanks for the explanation

dont know if I should give my opinion on Boro, but what I do think we have is some real firepower. Tuncay and Alves most likely starters up top will be very dangerous, Tuncay a real quality player while Alves is a real goalscorer. Mido is in great shape now, has lost a lot of weight and Aliadiere has electric pace but lacks composure. We signed two young lads Marvin Emnes from Sparta Rotterdam and Didier Digard from PSG, they will be hungry and will be two very good assets. Boro have a young squad which could for or against them, we need three or four more new players before first game in my opinion as after that most buys are panic ones.
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