Posted: Thu Jul 03, 2008 2:08 pm Post subject: 2008/09 Ante-Post Handicap Bet
For the forthcoming 2008/09 season I and hopefully some of you will be attempting a Ante-Post Handicap bet. If you are unaware of this bet it basically involves the bookie giving each team a set number of handicap points prior to the season kick off. These are then added to each teams final league points to give a new total/position.
To predict the winners in all leagues will be very difficult to say the least but the more sensible target is to get our teams placed. The odds and place terms differ slightly from each Division but I suppose equal themselves out in terms of the amount of teams in each league.
The handicap coupons for 08/09 are not out yet but you can roughly imagine what they will be. For example champions Man Utd will once again start with 0, Chelsea a point or 2 on top. Looking back in hindsight Arsenal, who won the 07/08 Handicap with 96pts, surely won’t get the generous figure of 13pts this season. The newly promoted teams in West Brom, Stoke and Hull will probably be given around the 45-50 mark.
In effect the bookies are handing out the handicaps in the hope each teams finishes on the same amount of points. Understandably they don’t do too badly but there are many exceptions. Outsiders Hereford with a handicap of 28pts pulverised the field in Division 2, amassing a whopping 115pts. Whereas MK dons, one of the favs placed in 2nd with 102 pts. Scots Div 3 saw favourites East Fife win the handicap race with the two outsiders in Elgin and East Stirling both claiming a place.
So as you can see this is no easy bet with a mixture of the lowest to the highest handicaps triumphant from last season. Although I don’t have any stats from previous seasons I’m pretty sure this is a popular trend. The majority of teams will remain in the hunt for place claims until the last few games of the campaign certainly giving you a run for your money. You can track your progress as soon as the season starts but it’s not until the latter months you get a real feel for your selections.
Now the hard part, what teams to pick for the bet. See ya later I’m out of here This is the bit where I would like to hear all of your opinions on teams you think are worth considering and why. Some teams make 14 signings in the summer, doesn’t necessarily mean the will do well. A new 25-goal striker, new manager can turn an average team with a fair/high handicap into the surprise of the season. Use all divisions, just the four English or combine with the Scottish. Also looking at the best suitable bet for our chosen number of selections. Possibilities galore but we’ll have some fun in trying to pick those beauties. The handicap list will be out shortly and I will post the all-important figures as soon as possible. I will be using the Hills coupon for 08/09.
Below are the 2007/08 handicap stats for all English and Scottish divisions from the William Hill coupon. It’s a bit long but very useful for any reference. Good luck and thanks to anyone who gets involved.
Hills 2007/08 Ante-Post Handicaps Results
PREMIERSHIP
All teams 15/1- E/W 1/5 Odds – Place 1,2,3,4.
Handicap Pts ~~ League Pts ~~ Total Pts ~~ Team
00~~87~~87 ~ Man Utd
02~~85~~87 ~ Chelsea
08~~86~~84 ~ Liverpool
13~~83~~96 ~ Arsenal
21~~46~~67 ~ Tottenham
28~~43~~71 ~ Newcastle
31~~65~~96 ~ Everton
31~~60~~91 ~ A.Villa
34~~58~~92 ~ Blackburn
34~~57~~91 ~ Portsmouth
34~~49~~83 ~ West Ham
37~~37~~74 ~ Bolton
37~~39~~76 ~ Sunderland
39~~55~~94 ~ Man City
40~~42~~82 ~ Middlesbrough
40~~36~~76 ~ Reading
45~~36~~81 ~ Fulham
48~~35~~83 ~ Birmingham
48~~40~~88 ~ Wigan
50~~11~~61 ~ Derby
Final Position ~ Total Pts ~ Team
01~96 Arsenal
01~96 Everton
03~94 Man City
04~92 Blackburn
05~91 A.Villa
05~91 Portsmouth
07~88 Wigan
08~87 Chelsea
08~87 Man Utd
10~84 Liverpool
11~83 Birmingham
11~83 West Ham
13~82 Middlesbrough
14~81 Fulham
15~76 Sunderland
16~76 Reading
17~74 Bolton
18~71 Newcastle
19~67 Tottenham
20~61 Derby
Joined: 20 Dec 2007 Posts: 782 Location: Portsmouth
Posted: Thu Jul 03, 2008 10:09 pm Post subject:
They're blimmin hard to pick winners. Reading won the Prem handicap by a country mile with 107 points 2 seasons ago.
I had a dabble last season for the first time in yonks. I had my team Pompey & we were well clear with 4 games to go with the bookie i did it on (which wasn't the same handicaps as in the above post). Altho i eventually lost by 2 or 3 points to Ars & Eve.
Logic i worked on:
1. 96-100 points is quite often the winning score, so don't back ManU or Chelsea. Well don't back anyone who with their handicap don't have the potential to hit 100 points.
2. Shop around. The handicaps seem to fluctuate by upto 5 points from one bookie to the next. _________________ Steve
It's been a while since I last dabbled with this bet but from memory I'm with you on the 95-100 being around the mark to base selections on. So yes totally agree on excluding Man U and Chelsea, anything below say 8, Arsenal as well.
There are exceptions like Hereford and Reading in which you can allow for as the aim has to be placing your teams. All winners is a dreamland bonus.
Let's hope them coupons are out soon although there' a big few transfers to be sorted out! _________________ ☻☻☻◄Just playing the game►☻☻☻
Moose I was on Pompey as well (didn't realise you were a blue through and through!), can't believe it, if we weren't so bloody good in the FA cup i'm sure we would of won that with Defoe the way he was going !!! _________________ PLAY UP POMPEY
Joined: 20 Dec 2007 Posts: 782 Location: Portsmouth
Posted: Fri Jul 04, 2008 10:44 pm Post subject:
Yep, 1 point from our last 5 games, when 5 points would have won me some money to help pay for next sears season ticket. But i'm def not complaining, happily have lost that bet due to our eyes on the FA Cup meaning i got to be at Wembley when "Sol went up to lift the FA Cup....."
Will be interesting to see what handicaps are in the Prem for 08/09. They still seem to price a lot by summer spending and reputation - Spurs & Newc will both have handicaps so low only die-hard fans will bet on those clubs if last season is anything to go by. I actually got Pompey at 2.25 to finish top half last season before the season started Not a club loyalty decision, it was a totally logical bet. The bookies had us finishing behind Spurs, Newc, Villa, WHam, ManC & BBurn plus Eve & the Big4. _________________ Steve
Joined: 06 May 2005 Posts: 6133 Location: Skipton, North Yorkshire
Posted: Fri Jul 04, 2008 10:54 pm Post subject:
It's certainly one of the best bets to keep your interest for the season. I had Dundee Utd in the Scottish Premier last season which I thought was a really decent bet but I didn't count on Motherwells resurgence. I think a similar total will win again. ie celtic & Rangers dropping poin ts as they go for European glory.
I have a few teams already earmarked for the divisions this time and I'm just awaiting the markets.
So far I have
Middlesborough - Premiership [If they get 45-50pts start]
Sheffield Utd/Wolves - Championship
Southend - League 1
Lincoln - League 2
Aberdeen - Scottish Prem
Dependent of handicaps. _________________ "Statistics are like mini-skirts .. they give you good ideas but hide the most important parts." > One-A-Day Football Challenge for January now open.
Hi, I have been doing handicap betting the last 4 seasons with some good success and last 2 yrs some failure so am in a position to give an honest reflection of do's and dont's.
Last yera I managed to get spurs with 28 from boyles which seemed good. Mancity with bet direct with plus 45(missed out to Arsenal on last game of the year).
Top tips
1) Definately shop around.
2)But it doesn't neccessarily mean having a BIGGER handicap with one bookmaker on your team is better as its all relevant as the other teams may have a bigger handicap aswell. So get the calculators ready and find out which ones are real value.
3) Bet Each Way still getting 1/3 or 1/4 top 4.
4) Get on early before prices change downside to this is other teams may strengthen considrably before start of season.
5) listen to other views
7) Goodluck
2008/2009
Early impression although no handicaps are out
1) Boro
2) Bolton
I did this last year and just missed out on a couple (Pompey let me down too!)
I take in a few lower league Scottish games and theres a few I'm going to be keeping an eye on.
Hamilton (SPL)
Billy Reid is well respected, he does his homework and will suss out their opponents. They've got two talented youngsters in McCarthy and McCarntey and if they can keep a hold of them until the mid season trasnfer window then they can do well. Also, they only conceeded three goals at home last season. It's a step up to the SPl, but I can see them takign points off a lot of clubs in the big boys league.
Ross County (Scottish First)
Streghend their squad with some SPL and Division One players, they'll be a good side even if they've just been promoted. Losing Andy Barrowman will be a blow but I reckon they'll take some beating.
East Fife (Second Diviosn)
Again a newly promoted team, but Dave Baikie is a well respected coach. Jonny Smart and Steven Tweed are an excellent partnership in defence and they have a good mix of expereinced players. Put off because they might be installed as favouirtes, is so will review this. May go for Ayr who have signed some quailty players.
Third Division ...One of many!
Going to review this when the handicapps are released. East Stirling are a shout. Jim McInally in charge, a couple of decent signings for them and they finished last seaosn strongly and pulled themselfs off the bottom of the league. Also take into accoutn Forfar with Dick Campbell in charge (he's been in charge of six teams who've been promoted). I also like the look of Dumbarton where Jom Chaplain (think thats their gaffer, sorry too early on a Sunday morning!) did well at Albion Rovers. He's looking to find the best from local players and I wouldn't rule them out. Same goes for Stenny. Again, good byunch of signings and John Coughlin won propmotion with Berwick. So after naming half the teams in the league I'll still end up losing! Going to waiy until the handicapps are released.
sorry to be a bit of a novice here but could someone explain ante post handicaps? I see two of you have Boro(my team) down but I dont know if that's a bad thing or good thing _________________ Read my Boxing blogs, previews of fights happening all over the World. Previews and tips on the wonderful sport of Boxing!
Just go to Welshie1's blog, look at the categories and select Boxing, simple!
Ante post(before the event starts in this case the football season)
Teams get a handicap of points which are added to the actual points they accumulate over the season. EG If boro get +45points on the handicap and actual achieve 55 points next season they will have 100points.
If Arsenal have 5 point handicap and in reality finish with 90 points they would have 95 points in total. So in comparison to Boro will actually finish beneath them on the handicap table.
Hope this makes sense. Whats your thoughts on Boro next year? Any improvement on the 42 points they got last season?
For the last four years I have won backing Plymouth Argyle E/W on the handicap lists (last season was a very close shave equal 4th with Ipswich)
Again this season I will back them and expect to win. Plymouth are always overlooked and under rated,
Last summer Sylvan Ebanks Blake was generally available @ 100-1 to be championship top scorer if he had been at a more "fashionable" club he would more than likely been 20 to 33-1
Get on Argyle at +28 points
dont know if I should give my opinion on Boro, but what I do think we have is some real firepower. Tuncay and Alves most likely starters up top will be very dangerous, Tuncay a real quality player while Alves is a real goalscorer. Mido is in great shape now, has lost a lot of weight and Aliadiere has electric pace but lacks composure. We signed two young lads Marvin Emnes from Sparta Rotterdam and Didier Digard from PSG, they will be hungry and will be two very good assets. Boro have a young squad which could for or against them, we need three or four more new players before first game in my opinion as after that most buys are panic ones. _________________ Read my Boxing blogs, previews of fights happening all over the World. Previews and tips on the wonderful sport of Boxing!
Just go to Welshie1's blog, look at the categories and select Boxing, simple!
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(c) 2002-2010 Online Betting Guide (OLBG), part of Invendium Ltd 20/03/10 21:33:52
This is the bit where I would like to hear all of your opinions on teams you think are worth considering and why. Some teams make 14 signings in the summer, doesn’t necessarily mean the will do well. A new 25-goal striker, new manager can turn an average team with a fair/high handicap into the surprise of the season. Use all divisions, just the four English or combine with the Scottish. Also looking at the best suitable bet for our chosen number of selections. Possibilities galore but we’ll have some fun in trying to pick those beauties. The handicap list will be out shortly and I will post the all-important figures as soon as possible. I will be using the Hills coupon for 08/09.
