Football - Sat 22.11.08

[Liverpool1985]

Weekend Matches:


BANKER
Aston Villa vs Manchester United
Well this is my banker of the weekend. Firstly a well done to Aston Villa on their beating of Arsenal last week but this should be back to reality time against Champions Man Utd. Villa are starting to remind me of Liverpool over the past 5-10 years. Battling against the big sides and then drawing/losing to the smaller sides ie Newcastle etc for Villa of late. Don't get me wrong, Villa have been impressive this season and there is no reason why they cannot finish 5th this year. Anyway onto the facts. Man Utd have won on their last 8 visits to Villa Park and have only lost one of last 17 meetings with Aston Villa on this ground (Back in 1995). Man Utd have no injury worries to report of and Ferguson knows any further dropped points and Chelsea sail further off into the distance. Also in the 14 matches played at Villa Park since Manchester Uniteds last defeat in 1995 Villa have only managed 4 goals. The last time Man Utd failed to score in a Premiership match was against Bolton in a 1-0 defeat back on the 24.11.2007. There seems value in this bet and i am taking the away victory.
Bets:
Manchester United Win @ 8/11



NAP
Nottingham Forest vs Norwich
This is probably seen as a crazy bet but i really like the look of a home win here. All be it Forest have been scraping draws of late, they are now unbeaten in 4 matches. And these 3 draws have come against Derby, Birmingham & Bristol City. Norwich have lost their last 4 away games in the Championship and have only scored 1 away goal in their last 5 away games. Also Norwich do not hold an impressive record at this ground and the last six matches here have ended in 4 Nottingham Forest wins & 2 Draws with Norwich not scoring in the last 4 matches between these sides at this ground.
Also one other stat with the 2 above teams is they have both scored the majority of their goals in the second 45 minutes of games. Nottingham Forest have scored 6 first half goals compared to 9 second half goals, while Norwich have scored 5 first half goals compared to 15 second half goals.
Bets:
Nottingham Forest Win @ 6/5
Most Goals Scored (Second Half) @ EVS



Dundee United vs Hamilton
Well Dundee have now racked up 7 straight home victories which compared to Hamilton's 5 straight away losses. I actually think 1.50 is a generous price available for the home victory. Dundee Utd have come to life this season after a mixed start, which to be fair involved some difficult games. Hamilton continue their awful run and have not won a league games since beating Aberdeen back on the 13.09.2008. This should be a straight forward home victory with no news of injuries as of yet. But, bigger shocks have been seen already this season.
Bets:
Dundee United Win @ 1/2



Also feel a small backing of the treble is worth a look:
Man Utd (8/11)
Nottingham Forest (6/5)
Dundee United (1/2)

With Bet365 is available @ 5.70 (Better odds maybe available elsewhere)

Good luck to all. And i may be back later on in the week with some more from the Foreign leagues.

[KanKeano]

Man City v Arsenal

I know Arsenal are perceived to out of the title challenge now but for me their is still a long way to go. Yes they were beaten by Aston Villa at home last week but the week before they getting back into the title race after a win against Citys rivals Man United!

In the last 6 seasons the best price you could find on an Arsenal win has been 4/5 so to see 6/5 on the away win means Im steaming in! Arsenal no doubt have not been at their best in recent weeks but then again neither have City and City are the type of team that will let Arsenal play.

Arsenal have won 5 out of the last 6 at Man City and City have lost 4 of their last 7 at home.

Despite Citys influx of money they are yet to be able use most of it and I rate the side in the bottom half of FA Prem sides. Arsenal are still one of the top 4 and should still be sided with in these types of games.

Arsenal win - 2.20
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[Rees]

Nottingham Forest v Norwich City

This is one of the games that stand out this weekend for me. I have been looking at the way Forest have been playing and they have been playing very positively recently and that has all started since winning their first away game of the season against Crystal Palace not so long ago.

Forest have since become unbeaten in 4 games in which they have played very well and on some occasions very unlucky but also lucky to have recieved a point.

Crystal Palace 1 - 2 Nottingham Forest (gritty win for Nottingham Forest)
Derby 1 - 1 Nottingham Forest (bit of a disappointing game)
Nottingham Forest 1 - 1 Birmingham (Forest outplayed Birmingham and was not clinical enough in front of goal to win the game)
Bristol City 2 - 2 Nottingham Forest (played very well and unlucky not to hold on to the lead but also very lucky to have not conceded from a penalty in the 93rd minute)

Since Lee Camp has been drafted in from QPR on loan Forest have tightened up and are slowly starting to find their feet in this division. Forests main problem have been giving away silly penalties (Bristol City, Cardiff, Ipswich) luckily Lee Camp has saved the last 2.

Norwich City have been very very poor on this ground and it tends to be a rather "bogey" ground for them.

Nathan Tyson got his first goal for Forest since August on Saturday against Bristol City and Joe Garner also scored his very first Nottingham Forest goal and this seems like now they are on the tally board they will start to score more goals considering Robert Earnshaw has returned to training this week (Nottingham Forest's top goalscorer).

Norwich seem to be in all sorts of bother with fans rather angry and upset with the way Glenn Roeder's team is playing and I think Forest have an excellent opportunity to make it unbeaten in 5 on Saturday and this would not suprise me.

Nottingham Forest win @ 6/5

[Vampir]

MONACO,LE MANS

after 2lost monaco need to win
le mans last few games not playing well.monaco 2 last games lost against rennes and lyon.

CHESTERFIELD,ACCRINGTON

chesterfield starting score more goals sometimes accrington beat bournemouth with god goals but on way not god eneoug chesterfield to beat accrington at least 3-1

MONACO TO WIN
CHESTERFIELT TO WIN
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World is to small!

[thercmc]

im actually staying clear of the aston villa vs man utd game

man utd may have won there last 8 games at villa park but arsenal hadnt lost in there last 13 games against aston villa going into last weekends game and aston villa won!

i think aston villa are stronger than theyve ever been and man utd havnt impressed me away from home this season so even though man utd should just steal it im staying clear of this one!

but good luck

[kilkennycat]

England - BlueSq Premier

Histon v Oxford Utd

Histon are riding high at the moment and are on a great run of 6 straight league wins that has seen them move into 2nd position in the table. During that spell they have only conceded 1 goal and that was in their last game a 3-1 win at Stevenage to inflict only their 2nd home defeat all season, their home record is 6-2-1 and they have won their last 4 home games including a FA Cup win over Swindon without conceding a goal. Oxford lie 17th in the table and cant seem to find any consistency this season, they had a decent away win in the FA Cup in midweek at Dorchester but lost at 3rd from bottom Grays last weekend 2-0, their away record reads 1-2-6 and they have only scored 5 goals, they have lost at Altrincham and at bottom club Lewes in recent times. The word amongst Oxford fans is the best they can hope for is a draw and they are not happy with the current manager Patterson and want him out. Histon to continue their great form.

Histon @1.85 VC Bet


Woking v Torquay

Torquay are one of the form teams in the country with 10 wins and 2 draws from their last 12 league games and are currently sitting pretty atop of the league, their away record reads 5-2-2 and is the joint best in the division and they have won 5 and drawn 1 of their last 6 away games winning at the likes of York last weekend to give them their 1st home defeat of the season and wins at Ebbsfleet and Rushen (clubs above Woking in the table). Woking lie 5th from bottom and haven't won for 6 games and although they only lost twice in that spell they both came at home to Stevenage and York (only their 2nd away win so far) and they have only scored 3 goals in that spell without facing any club above 9th in the table, their overall home record is 3-2-4. Torquay have beaten Woking the 3 times they have met in the last year including a 1-0 away win in December of last year. Torquay to get the 3 points.

Torquay @1.91 PaddyPower
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All the best.

[fianna]

Cystal Palace vs Bristol City
Bristol City @ 3.5 Bet365

Palace last two home games have been rather disapointing, the 2-1 defeat by Notts Forest above posters have mentioned and a 1-1 draw with Sheff Wed. So thats two teams with very poor away form picking up points at Palace.
Bristol City havn't conceded in their last 3 away games, 2 wins and a draw. In fact Wolves an Sheff Utd are the only teams that have managed to score past Bristol City on their travels so far this season in the league. So thats six clean sheets on the road from eight games, Bristol City beat Palace in the playoffs here at the end of last season also.

[jonski]

I rarely bet against Neil Warnock, you can never count the Palace manager out, I think Palace will be back very quickly.

[Tractor Boy]

After successfully following some fantastic tips on here over the past week or two I thought its time to do some myself. Gd luck to all and hopefuly I can bring some newbie luck and a return to some of you great tipsters that im already indebted too.

Chelsea v Newcastle & Liverpool v Fulham
With them both being at home its hard to see anything other than this going to form.

Middlebrough v Bolton
Under 2.5 goals @ 1.7 (PartyBet)

Boltons last 6 games have resulted in less than 3 goals and in Boro's last 5 only one has gone as high as 3.
A draw at 3.5 (Coral) seems good value too as both have drawn 3 of there last 5.

Portsmouth v Hull
Corners less than 10 @ 2.37 Coral - there may be better

At home Portsmouth AVE 4.8 and Hull AVE 2.7 away

Stoke v West Brom
Under 3.5 goals @ 1.3 (PartyBet)

Two teams desperate for the points and so this could end up being a free-for-all. If it goes to form though its going to be a low scoring game.

Others
Selections in the championship I like the look of are:
Nottingham Forest v Norwich - Forst starting to pickup a few points and morale at Norwich is at an all time low. I agree with the other posters about this game.
Reading v Southampton - Reading are pretty tough at home and fancy a comfortable win here.
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[jaydubs]

Had write ups for matches that interested me this week but after 1hrs typing the *insert expletive* deleted itself leaving me with a blank page... AAAARRRGGGHH !!

So a little less than before as time has now run out for me this evening

Prem

Stoke win @ 6/5 SkyBet v WBA Win

Both of these sides know that it is home form that will that will give them a chance to stay up and with a record of 4 wins from 6 losing only to Everton and Chelsea Stoke look good value especially when you consider WBA have only found the net twice in their away games this season.

Hull and Bolton both interest me at 7/2 but the 5/2 draw looks more likely for both of these ...

Championship

Preston 10/11 SkyBet v Barnsley Win

Preston have decent home form beating Reading a couple of weeks ago but on a quick look Barsnley have good recent form away from home although on closer inpsection their two away wins have come in the last 2 games against rock bottom Doncaster and Charlton who are in a serious free fall. This all adds up to me angling towards that Preston win.

Sheff Wed 11/10 SkyBet v Coventry not quite
I am sorry but 11/10 on a side whose home record reads 5, 2, 1 and 10 scored - 3 conceeded looks great value and although Coventry have fair away form the need to win games at home in the Champs is the overriding factor for me.

Div 1

Leeds and Scunthorpe interest me but I just can't trust Leeds as they let me down so much and Scunthorpe seems too close to call although the 6/4 on the home win is attractive.

Carlisle 4/5 most bookies v Cheltenham Win

Both of these sit towards the foot of the table but I am taking a couple of factors in to this match. Counting on 1 and discounting another .... Cheltenham did have a good away win in midweek but as mentioned before they are a good cup side and can also raise it for a game against the bigger boys of the division. A trip to Carlisle whose home form is fair twinned with the predicted snowfall tomorrow could make this a very uncomfortable trip and add furtehr to their woes.

Div 2

Rochdale should do better this week after a disappointing draw last week and the 4/5 on offer seems quite nice but

Chester 7/4 SkyBet v Aldershot NAP lose

One to avoid at first glance but even just looking at the relative home/away form you would maybe side with Chester. Add to this the return of Mark Wright adn Steve Beasdale who got them out of the Conference before leaving before the start of the new season and possibly a couple of loan sigings already identified this could heap further misery on Aldershot wretched away run ..they do score goals away from home but also concede a few. for me new manager syndrome and 7/4 is too good to miss.

Conference

most of my money will be here this week

Histon, Salisbury and Burton 5/6, 5/6 and evens with SkyBet all warrent respect considering their opponenets and form thus far but 2 out of 3

Lewes 6/4 SkyBet v Grays Win

This looks like a battle of the basement and if Lewes are going to stay up then they have to win these matches, Grays have not won a game all season away from home in the league and not even picked up a point scoring 3 and conceeding 16 in the process they are a club in turmoil and this is an excellent opportunity for Lewes to get a good result and pull closer to the pack above them.

Barrow 6/5 SkyBet v Weymouth lose

A little trickier this but i am taking the gamble on the snow and hellish journey waiting for Weymouth and fancy Barrow at decent odds of making a good fist of this.

Anyway good luck with your bets !!

[John Davies]

IMO it has to be Man Utd to beat Villa....Man Utds record at Villa Park..let alone beating Villa is spot on.

Man Utd have beaten Villa 14 times in a row !!!!!!!!!!!

other stats have been mentioned by Liverpool1985...

Man Utd @ 8/11 Bet365
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[kilkennycat]

Germany - 1 Bundesliga

Wolfsburg v VfB Stuttgart

Wolfsburg are currently lying in 9th place in the league and are in good form winning 4 of their last 7 games and although they lost 3 of those they were away defeats against the top 3 clubs B.Munich, Leverkusen and Hoffenheim so no disgrace there, They have a great home record of 5-1-0 scoring 17 goals and conceding just 4. Stuttgart are just 2 places lower in the league and are not in the best of form with just 1 win in their last 7 league games, their away record is 1-2-3 with a 2-2 draw at Frankfurt (only 1 win at home so far) their last away result. Wolfsburg hammered Stuttgart 4-0 in this fixture last season and with the home sides firepower they should have too much for Stuttgart in this encounter.

Wolfsburg AH -0.5 @2.05 Bet365
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All the best.