football sunday 28/6/09

[thercmc]

hi fellas

whats your opinions on the brazil vs usa game tonight?

personally i cant bring myself to touch it,but i no most people will be backing brazil because there is a big gulf in class between the two sides,but lets face it,we were all saying that before the last game when they played south africa and they only very narrowly got through with a late free kick! and we all said that about spain when they got tonked by usa!

i just think the usa have done great in there last two games and with there new found love for hard work they could definately frustrate brazil and draw at 90 mins,and at odds of 1.44 for the brazil win it just doesnt seem good value in my opinion

cup games definately throw up more shocks than the league,so on that note i shall go and review todays norwegian league games lol!

[Liverpool1985]

Both selections coming from the Finland Veikkausliga League.

FC Haka vs FF Jaro (Preview)

FC Haka
They had the perfect result midweek, with a 3-0 win over FC Lathi, which was the perfect response to their 2-1 defeat at an inform IFK Mariehamn. And Haka are really setting the pace this season, with other title challengers such as FC Inter, FC Honka and HJK Helsinki all stuttering early on. And so far the home win percentage in the Veikkausliga is considerably high at around 51%. Haka’s home record this season is W4 D1 L1 GF12 GA4 and they are third in the home team standings. Haka have beaten Tampere Utd at home so far this season, along with some other less talented opposition. Their home draw came against FC Honka, and their defeat was a 1-2 loss to HJK Helsinki. Haka have now won their last 4 matches at home in this league and have only conceded 1 goal in these 4 matches. In all competitions, Haka have won 5 of their last 6 matches. FC Haka’s half time statistics when playing at home are W2 D3 L1 GF4 GA2. And they tend to play better in the second half of games. 6 of their 11 matches this season have finished over 2.5 goals, and 4 of their 6 home matches have been overs. Haka really seemed to have turned things around this season after losing their last 5 home matches last season. And the main question is, can Haka keep this up?

FF Jaro
Conpared to what was expected of them pre-season FF Jaro have had a very impressive start to the campaign. But the majority of their wins this season have come at home, and against weak opposition. FF Jaro have an away record of W2 D1 L3 GF7 GA10. Jaro’s two away victories have come against Tampere United and VPS Vassa (Who are 4th and 9th in the home table standings). But they are 7th in the away team standings. But FF Jaro have found it difficult against tougher teams away from home, losing to FC Inter, FC Honka and FC Lahti, and they have lost 3 of their last 5 away matches in the Veikkausliga. In the first 45 minutes in away matches FF Jaro fare quite well with half time stats of W2 D2 L2 GF4 GA4 (This is the 3rd best away half time stats in the division). 5 of Jaro’s 11 matches this season have finished over 2.5 goals. 3 of their 6 away matches have finished overs. And so far only 23% of matches in the Veikkausliga have ended in away victories. Jaro will not find this easy, especially with the confidence currently in the Haka camp.

Head To Head
When these two sides meet the head to head stats are in massively in favour of the home team Haka. Stats are W15 D6 L6 GF47 GA25. But Haka tend to perform better when playing away against FF Jaro. When playing them at home Haka’s record is W6 D3 L4 GF22 GA14. 7 of the last 10 head to heads have resulted in over 2.5 goals, and considering both sides are joint 2nd top goalscorers so far this season, goals galore could well be a possibility. Haka have won 5 of the last 7 meetings against FF Jaro, but the away side did win here 2-1 last season.

Conclusion
I have to side with Haka here. While FF Jaro have started the season impressively I feel they have had a relatively easy beginning set of fixtures compared to most sides. Haka must be buzzing with confidence and this is another opportunity to extend their lead at the top of the league. Especially with HJK Helsinki playing host to FC Inter on the same day. Jaro have suffered defeats away to top teams so far this season and I expect that to continue here. Haka know with a win here they can really Lay down their intension of challenging for the title this season and put pressure of the teams chasing them, even at this early stage.

Selection: FC Haka @ 1.75 (Centrebet)



HJK Helsinki vs FC Inter (Preview)

HJK
Well the pre season favourites have endured a mediocre start to the season. They are slightly off the pace but have games in hand on all the teams above them. But HJK’s poor results have come away from home, with 1-0 defeats against RoPS and Mypa. At home they have been very strong and have not suffered defeat in their last 13 matches in all competitions. Winning 9 of those matches. Their home record this season is W4 D2 L0 GF12 GA4 and they are top in the home team standings. And the fact HJK Helsinki are top of that stat is impressive considering they have already played the likes of IFK Mariehamn, FC Honka, Tampere Utd, FC Lahti and TPS already at home. At half time at home HJK stats are W4 D2 L0 GF6 GA1, so they have not been losing at home at half so far this season. I think another strength about HJK is that their midfield players chip in with as many goals as the strikers, and unlike a few teams in the Veikkausliga they do not have to rely on the performances of a couple of players. Only 3 of HJK’s 10 matches this have finished over 2.5 goals. And only 2 of their 6 home matches have finished as overs. HJK are currently 9th in the six match form standings with stats of W2 D2 L2 GF4 GA4. And they are joint top home goalscorers, along with FC Haka, with 12 goals. HJK’s last 7 matches have all been under 2.5 goals.

FC Inter
Have had a very long break since their last match on the 01.06.2009. And that match was a 2-1 win over FC Honka and will go down as a massive win for Inter. They currently sit 4th in the away team standings and have a record of W2 D1 L1 GF4 GA2. They have conceded less away goals than any other team in the Veikkausliga, but have only played 4 away matches. Most teams have played around 6 matches away from home. But Inters 2 away wins came against RoPS and KuPS. They also drew 0-0 to MyPA and were defeated 2-0 by IFK Mariehamn. Inter have only scored 11 goals this season and they are the lowest goalscorers in the top half of the table. They need big performances from Guillano Grot etc. When playing away from home their half time stats are W1 D2 L1 GF2 GA1. FC Inter are another side who usually see under 2.5 goals. This season 8 of their 10 matches in the Veikkausliga have finished as unders. And this is very much Inters style, with 17 of their 26 matches last season also finishing under 2.5 goals. Inter are known for winning while not playing the best of football and 7 of their last 8 matches have seen less than 2.5 goals. In the six match form table FC Inter are 4th with a record of W4 D0 L2 GF8 GA4.

Head To Head
This is hugely in favour of HJK Helsinki. And I actually had to check this twice as I thought something was wrong with my stats. But it was correct and the stats favour HJK with a record of W21 D5 L3 GF55 GA20. And when HJK play at home to FC Inter in this fixture the stats are W12 D1 L2 GF31 GA12. FC Inter have only won once in the last 10 meetings between these sides. Along with 3 draws and 6 HJK victories. 7 of the last 10 meetings have resulted in under 2.5 goals, with 4 of these also being under 1.5 goals. But in this fixture with HJK at home 3 of the last 5 meeting have been overs.

Conclusion
One of two possible outcomes, will HJK Helsinki take this opportunity to show they are the best team in this league and justify the price surrounding their outright price to win this league or will FC Inter provide an upset. I think not. FC Inter have struggled when coming to this ground in the past and have lost the last 5 matches here in all competitions. With FC Haka hot in form, HJK need to win this match. Both teams have had a short break because of the International matches. HJK have the better all round squad and have proved over the years they are a formidable team when playing at home. I think the game will be close but HJK have a great record in this fixture and can further holt FC Inters title hopes here. With the goals market despite everything pointing to under 2.5 goals I would not be surprised to see the goals flying in here, so I will avoid the overs/unders market.

Selection: HJK Helsinki @ 1.95 (Bet365)
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[richmiester]

I've also gone with FC Haka to win. Though my odds were slightly lower at 1.70

[The Forum Reader]

The Brazil/USA game should follow the pattern of the semifinals. I fully expect USA to focus their attention on containment and defense and a tired Brazilian team to struggle to break them down.

The US are unlikely to score against a very well organized Brazilian defence. Both their goals against Spain game from shocking mistakes.

So under 1.5 & under 2.5 should be good plays here.

I think 0-0 or 1-0 Brazil is the most likely final score. Half time 0-0 is also a great bet in my opinion.

[sikui]

Confederations Cup Final - US v Brazil

Stat from BBC Sport:-

1. Brazil have won 14 of the 15 previous meetings between these nations.
2. Brazil are unbeaten in 15 games (W11, D4) and have won the last seven.
3. Dunga's side have kept 11 clean sheets during their 15-match unbeaten run.
4. They have won all 11 internationals they have played in Africa.
5. This is USA fourth Confederations Cup, having twice finished third.
6. USA have only failed to score in one of their last 18 internationals - against Brazil in the group stage of this tournament.

My Pick - Brazil to win & CS 2-0

GL

[KanKeano]

Just to add to that:

In 9 competive meetings only 2 have been Over 2.5 and Brazil have kept clean sheets in 7 of them. They have won 5 of them 1-0.
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[The Forum Reader]

Yes I'm amazed under 2.5 is trading at around even money on the exchanges. Obviously it's the Brazil factor. But if anyone saw their tired performance against South Africa just three days ago they would be mopping up the value here giving goal backers bigger prices.

Also note very few goals have been scored at this ground in previous games in this tournament.

All the stats point to an unders game. And I definitely feel 0-0 & 1-0 Brazil are the correct score plays here.

[The Forum Reader]

Even more stunning unquoted (Brazil or USA scoring 4+ goals in 90 minutes) is the favourite correct score @ 6.4.

[thercmc]

2-0 to the usa!!! im glad i sat this one out the way things are standing!
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