WEEK 38 : 1X2 POLL AND DISCUSSION

nors · Triple Crown Winner Joined: 01 Aug 2006 Posts: 1034

This is real money and we currently have £2261.75 in the OLBG betting fund.

As the season has progressed the debate has become better,more informed, sensible and inciteful. Well done everyone. Some results have not gone for us and we have lost money, but lets finish with some wins and claw some money back.

We now have 4 categorys. This thread is for the 1x2 discussion and poll. Please add your reasoned posts and vote on which match we should go for in this category as our choice.

Remember our funds are growing and to work out the downside as well as the potential profit.

Stage 3 Thursday/Friday
Then for the final decision thread. We will be having a poll

Stage 4 Friday
We then poll for the stake with lots of options (in units of 100) and take the weighted average of all votes rounded to the nearest £50.

superwomble · Group 3 Class Joined: 27 Apr 2006 Posts: 76

Villa are in form and will be buzzing after the crushing of Birmingham. Everton appear to be slipping recently. A good chance of a Villa win here and these are very good odds.

Villa to win 1st

John Mac · Posted: Wed Apr 23, 2008 1:30 pm Post subject:

Although not a certainty Villa are tremendous value and well worth a chance this week. I will look no further.
_________________
AVFC - PROUD HISTORY, BRIGHT FUTURE

Luck doesn't exist - it's opportunities meeting preparation.

Betfairalfie · At Stud Joined: 01 Mar 2005 Posts: 4666

I am also strong on Villa BUT a better way of playing that game is to bet on Villa finishing 5th in EPL. Slightly better odds (3.50), but much less risk. Even if Villa were to draw against Everton they still have an easier run-in and should overtake them. Certainly where my real money has gone.

SO my BOTW is Wigan at home. As stated on match thread;

Very strong on Wigan playing at home against anyone at the moment. That dreadful pitch of theirs is a major advantage.

Wigan Home so far this season are 8w 4d 5 losses
Reading away are 1w 3d 13 losses

Wigan Home EPL games in 2008

v Spurs 1-1 Draw
V Birmingham 2-0 Won
V Bolton 1-0 Won
V Arsenal 0-0 Draw
V Derby 2-0 Won
V West Ham 1-0 Won
V Everton 1-2 Loss

An impressive run !

Wigan home win @2.10 - would be happy with any price above 1.95.

hootie · Posted: Wed Apr 23, 2008 1:46 pm Post subject:

i agree with most that VILLA are in very good form . BUT it as only against the bottom teams this will be a different match . so for that reason either MAN CITY or WIGAN are better bets in my opinion

John Mac · Posted: Wed Apr 23, 2008 2:24 pm Post subject:

tipstonga · Posted: Wed Apr 23, 2008 3:17 pm Post subject:

Interesting bets here.
As I see it Reading is capable of getting the draw and also win.

Villa is being overvalued since last weekend for the "help" they give us but Birmingham's help in the act is being forgotten.
So prior to an AV bet a Liverpool bet would be preferable.

There are 2 interesting draw bets here. I shall discard Sunderland v Boro since this low positioned teams are highly irregular, the same argument that suggests to avoid West Ham v NewCastle for any result (see for example the Prem.Chall.betting).

The two big ones are just for a comfortable draw while they must solve their Champ.League matters. Chelsea may put a harder effort for a while but not for long, they will not risk to nail their second position being beaten home. You need not beleive me, the corresponding thread post are 100% for the draw.

So I vote Chelsea v Man Utd- Draw@3.1

If you vote please post your reasons (or at least if you have little time which posts you agree with )

good luck Win

_________________
tipstonga
1st Premiership 6-months-profit blogger
NTB February Champion (4 platinum record)

spider2097 · Posted: Wed Apr 23, 2008 3:20 pm Post subject:

At first glance it would appear that we are spoilt for choice. So, we rule out the odds-on bets - on the basis that other equally good options are on the board with better prices.

Next, I'm ignoring the draws. A derby game & top 2 clash could easily end up as draws but IMO it's best to leave them alone.

A game with not much to play for - except maybe getting Reading a bit of breathing space at the bottom - doesn't fill me with anticipation. I'd agree that Wigan are likely victors of this match, but a team fighting relegation can surprise.

Likewise, with Birmingham v Liverpool - we have a team needing points (who have a good League record at home to Liverpool) coming up against Liverpool who will most likely rest a couple of key players ahead of the Champions League semi-final. It's true that you won't see 2.50 for a Liverpool win very often (especially against relegation candidates) but I don't think this is a foregone conclusion by any means.

Villa are on a roll at the moment, no argument there, but Everton are a different prospect to the teams Villa have been able to beat away from home this season. While there is huge value in the price available for a Villa win, I'd rather go with the DNB choice from the "Others" category instead of reaching a situation that could cause a split vote come the final 4 (or however many it is this week).

Which brings me to my choice. This is a case of head over heart here and another one which makes me think that bookies have had a bit of a breakdown this week. Firstly, let me say I cannot stand Newcastle United. I was really hoping they'd get relegated this season to stop their fans giving it "We're gonna win the Prem!" come August. I don't like Keegan's brand of football. I think it's vastly over-rated. But I think they've got a half decent squad which man for man is better than West Ham's squad IMO. They're in great form at the moment & I don't see West Ham winning this game. Compared to some of the prices available for a Newcastle win in previous weeks - including when they were still to register a win under Keegan - 2.88 for the Newcastle win is tremendous value IMO.

West Ham v Newcastle : Newcastle @ 2.88
_________________
How much wood would a woodchuck chuck if a woodchuck could chuck wood?
http://www.online-betting-guide.co.uk/forum/viewtopic.php?f=31&t=14998&postdays=0&postorder=asc&start=48
"Viva los Bio-Dome!!"
November 2007 Premiership Challenge Winner

theconstantgambler · Group 1 Class Joined: 22 Oct 2007 Posts: 446

Went for the MANC to win bet.

FUL is in very poor form, MANC is doing ok. Solid bet IMHO.

The villa bet would be my 2nd

.
_________________
Now making money isn't everything but havin it is.

matman86 · Posted: Wed Apr 23, 2008 4:33 pm Post subject:

Gone for man city on the 1x2
probley wont go for it overall this week but for the 1x2 is the best chance which also has value to it

fulham look all but down now and man city are comnig in for a strong finish. nice price too
_________________
OLBG'S RESIDENT DART PLAYER
UK CUPS TIPSTER SEPT(07)
MANGER OF THE MONTH (OCT 07)

willieboy · Classic Winner Joined: 30 Jul 2007 Posts: 617

Lots of choices in this catergory...so no real stand outs.

On the basis of a strong possibility at decent odds...I have selected Newcastle to beat W Ham.

It`s def no `gimme` but has a team with good match winners and on form...against a team with injuries and nothing to play for really.

That`ll do for me.

shaunjennings · Group 2 Class Joined: 15 Jun 2007 Posts: 203

Villa get my vote, very good price for a team in form.

	Working together to beat the Bookies!