Blackburn v Derby

nors · Posted: Mon Apr 28, 2008 12:58 pm Post subject: Blackburn v Derby

This thread is for discussion on this match only We are asking you to choose your best bet for this match in four bet-type categories.
When you have chosen your best bet in each category- choose the best one out of those 4 and put it at the bottom of your post in BOLD WRITING

Funds Available £1811.75

EXAMPLE/TEMPLATE
Best 1X2 bet:
Best AH bet :
Best Under/Over bet:
Best Other bet :

BEST BET :

We need stats,discussion,facts. Remember to check out the price available and then post a full reasoned argument as to why we should place a bet.

Category 1 : The normal WLD or 1X2 result
Category 2: Asian Handicap (see here for info on this http://www.online-betting-guide.co.uk/guides/asian-handicap-betting.php)
Category 3: Under/Over goals
Category 4: Other (e.g. Clean Sheet, HTFT, Correct Score, Anytime Goalscorer, etc)

Stage 2 Wednesday/Thursday: Four Bet Type Threads
We will set up a thread for each of the four bet type categories above which summarises the most popular bet in that category for that game.
We then have a vote to come up with a best bet for that category leaving us with
- Best 1X2 bet
- Best AH bet
- Best Under/Over bet
- Best Other bet

Stage 3 Thursday/Friday
We discuss and vote on which of the 4 bets to go for based on the vote winners from each category thread. So we will have one 1X2 bet, one AH bet, one Under/Over bet and one Other bet to vote between to decide on our final bet.

Stage 4 Friday
We then poll for the stake with lots of options (in units of 100) and take the weighted average of all votes rounded to the nearest £50.

Check Out All The Odds On This Game By Clicking Here : (will insert when availble)

PLEASE MAKE SURE YOU USE THIS THREAD JUST FOR DISCUSSIONS ABOUT THIS MATCH
Posts about multiple matches will be deleted

NeilThe Beaver · Group 2 Class Joined: 03 Jun 2007 Posts: 107

What a horrid week for a decent footy bet, too many good teams at home and poor teams away. I think all the teams in the PL look forward to Derby visting and the fans will demand their moneys worth. A chance for the players to enjoy themselves before the end of the season and i think B'burn are still playing for postion and a (very) outside chance of euro football.

B'burn Win @ 1.25 thats no price
Over 2.5 @ 1.75 possibly
AH BBurn-1.5 @ 1.85 decent enough but is it too late for odds on?
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willieboy · Classic Winner Joined: 30 Jul 2007 Posts: 623

A possible bet here could be Blackburn - 2....seeing as Derby have conceded 43 away!

Blackburn have only lost 4 games at home all season and still have a chance (just about) of European footy next year.

Odds for this are 5/2...and we are going to have to take a chance on something this week.

bigmoose · Posted: Tue Apr 29, 2008 12:14 am Post subject:

Think we'll be struggling to find a value bet here. Derby haven't got a hope. But blackburn are hardly the rip teams apart pure footballing side, which are the sort that give Derby proper mullerings. So no point in taken on big AH's.

Blackburn at home, 7 wins from 18. And more importantly only 3 games where they've won by more than a 1 goal margin. So swerve the AH's and Home Win too short.
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Steve

herby · Group 1 Class Joined: 14 Sep 2007 Posts: 428

Hi

My 3rd choice game, and we need look no further than a comfortable Blackburn win. Blackburn's final home game and surely it's a question of not if but by how many goals.

15 defeats and 3 draws from 18 aways sums up Derby's season, but they have showed increasing resilience and it would not be a great shock to see them hold on until the break again.

1. Blackburn win 3/10 too short
2. A/H Blackburn -1.75 11/10 looks ok
3. Over 2.5 but guessing
4. H/T draw F/T Blackburn 7/2

I think the H/T F/T scorecast is a little short priced at 7/2 here. However we do need a good win after last week, so i'm going to suggest chancing £200 on the scorecast to recover £700.

thetitan · At Stud Joined: 25 Apr 2007 Posts: 2966

derby are just awful, i don't think i've taken advantage of opposing them on the AH this season as i always think 'they're a PL side, they've surely got one good performance around the corner'.

alas, 36 games and just ridiculous and heavy defeats.

with santa cruz in great form, I'm happy to back him to score a hat-trick as decent value, as well as blackburn AH -1.5.

if blackburn get one goal, they'll get a few.

Best 1X2 bet: blackburn
Best AH bet : blackburn -1.5 AH
Best Under/Over bet: overs
Best Other bet : Santa Cruz AGS

BEST BET : blackburn -1.5 AH
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tipstonga · Posted: Tue Apr 29, 2008 7:47 pm Post subject:

I agree with herby that

Ipoh Shark · At Stud Read My Blog! Joined: 05 May 2005 Posts: 2736

i would swerve this game on the AH, or risk it on Derby if the price is right.

1) This is another one of those "bogey team" games. Previous H2H at Blackburn ended 0-1, 0-0, 1-0, 1-2, 3-4. None were Blackburn wins by 2 or more goals. In fact, the last time Blackburn won at home by more than 2 goals was a 3-1 win in 1928 (jeez, i believe all or 99.9% here were not around then)!

2) Blackburn is coming into this one hot as they managed an away win at Pompey and held mighty MU at home to a draw. Compare this to the high profile 2-6 home demolition of Derby by Arsenal and it will be reflex action to lump on Blackburn for this one. Risky, if u ask me.

3) Blackburn are out of the running for Europe as the max they can get is 61 points compared to Everton who already have 62 now. They are also guaranteed a top half finish as they are 7 points ahead of 10th placed West Ham. imho, nothing to play for compared to Derby who still hope to avoid the title of worst EPL performer ever!

i believe in bogey teams. So,
best bet- Derby AH +1.5 @ 2.05
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king pete · Posted: Wed Apr 30, 2008 10:59 am Post subject:

Can see another thumping for Derby.Blackburn are certainly due a big win.Santa Cruz is scoring again and even though they have nothing to play for they will still like to go out and enjoy themselves.Derby's defending was laughable against Arsenal and they got punished for it.They just want this season to end.Blackburn havnt been scoring that many goals recently but with Cruz, Roberts, Pedersen etc they should be.Derby have conceded 43 goals away from home.Comfortable hoe win here for me.

Best 1X2 bet: HOME WIN (too short)
Best AH bet : Blackburn -1.5
Best Under/Over bet: OVER
Best Other bet : HT/FT B'burn/B'burn